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The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

U.S. stock markets were poised for lift off Thursday, after a strong earnings report from computer chip giant Nvidia signaled that there is still plenty of room to run in the artificial intelligence boom that has powered markets higher for much of the year.

Prior to the opening bell, bets on the S&P 500 were up about 1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 1.5%.

Late Wednesday, Nvidia said sales of its trademark Blackwell AI chips ‘are off the charts,’ while another set of key computer processing units is ‘sold out,” founder and CEO Jensen Huang said in a statement.

On a call with investors following the report, Huang dismissed concerns about an AI bubble.

“There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different,” Huang said.

Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush Securities finanical group, echoed that sentiment.

“This was a golden quarter for Nvidia with demand massive and well above Street whisper numbers,’ Ives said in an email. ‘These numbers validate the AI Revolution is still early days and send the bears back into hibernation mode.’

Shares of the world’s most valuable company were up more than 4% in after-hours trading.

Nvidia’s chips have been the catalysts for a massive build-out of data centers that have supplied a backbone to the U.S. economy amid slowdowns elsewhere. More money is flowing into building data centers than all other manufacturing facility types combined, according to the research group S&P Global.

Until recently, that spending has also powered major stock indexes to record highs.

Lately, however, stocks have shown signs of wobbling lately. The declines in share prices — led by tech companies — have sparked debates about whether AI-driven gains are beginning to slow.

This raises a bigger question: how the broader economy will perform if it no longer benefits from all the wealth the AI boom is creating.

Nvidia’s latest earnings are likely to allay these fears, for now at least.

Huang said last month that his company had $500 billion in orders for its chips, for 2025 and 2026 combined.

“This is how much business is on the books. Half a trillion dollars’ worth so far,” Huang said at a conference in Washington, D.C.

Alongside broader concerns about the state of the U.S. economy, stock market momentum has been tripped up by worries about circular dealing among AI’s biggest players. This means the same money is being passed back and forth between several companies — even as each company’s individual value climbs.

Nvidia is a fixture in the kinds of deals that are raising concerns. It recently announced a commitment alongside Microsoft to fund AI software provider Anthropic with $10 billion.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang during the Live Keynote Pregame of the Nvidia GPU Technology Conference in Washington on Oct. 28.Jim Watson / AFP – Getty Images file

This kind of big collaboration news would typically boost the stock prices of all the companies involved. But neither Nvidia’s nor Microsoft’s stock got a boost from the Anthropic announcement.

Analysts with Deutsche Bank said this is a sign of the ongoing investor wariness about deals like this.

“It goes to show how sentiment has turned more negative in the last few weeks, with the circular AI deals being treated with increasing caution as the conversation around a potential bubble has gathered pace,” they wrote in a note published Wednesday.

The Nvidia headquarters, in Santa Clara, Calif., on May 21, 2024.Justin Sullivan / Getty Images file

The question now is whether the latest market hiccups represent a temporary pullback, or the onset of a more permanent state of affairs.

For the experts who are cautiously optimistic that the market will continue to climb, Nvidia’s massive haul serves to validate their rosy outlook.

“We think the investment boom has room to run,” Goldman Sachs researchers wrote in a note published Wednesday, adding that the economy writ large has remained resilient, something that should provide ongoing support to stock returns.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The United States added 119,000 jobs in September, a stronger-than-expected figure and a sign that the economy was adding jobs at a healthy clip before government shutdown.

But the details of the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics paint a more mixed picture, that of a labor market that has recently begun to look wobblier amid high-profile layoff announcements from a host of blue-chip companies.

September’s employment gains were concentrated in health care, food and drinking establishments, and social assistance. Manufacturing shed 6,000 jobs, continuing a trend in a sector the Trump administration has touted as a key target of its economic policies. Transportation and warehousing also lost 25,300 jobs.

The unemployment rate climbed from 4.3% to 4.4% in September, though the pickup was due in part to an increase in the labor force, which the BLS said gained 450,000 new potential workers.

The pace of wage growth slowed.

Thursday’s report was originally supposed to be released Oct. 3, but it was shelved because of the government shutdown. Jobs data collected for October will be released Dec. 16 as part of the full report covering November, the BLS said Wednesday.

The absence of official economic reports over the past six weeks has made it difficult to accurately assess the current state of the jobs market.

But data from private and alternative sources has painted a worrisome portrait amid signs of softening consumption among many households and stubborn price increases.

Over the past few weeks, Amazon, General Motors, IBM, Microsoft, Paramount, Target and UPS have announced plans to eliminate tens of thousands of jobs. Their ranks were joined Thursday by Verizon, which announced the start of layoffs affecting 13,000, according to an internal memo.

About 39,000 workers received layoff notices in October, according to data tracked by the Cleveland Federal Reserve — a number last seen in May and before that only during times of crisis.

A separate report released this month by the research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 153,000 job cuts announced in October, though some analysts give less weight to its data over methodology questions.

Whatever the exact total, those who do find themselves without work are now experiencing an average unemployment spell of 24.5 weeks — nearly six months. That’s the worst reading since November 2017.

Tiffany Price, South Florida general manager for Job News USA, a job listings service, said many companies face budget cuts and have effectively frozen hiring. And what companies are still hiring are offering lower compensation rates that more experienced workers may have trouble accepting.

The number of employers who attended a recent Job News jobs fair at Amerant Bank Arena in Broward County, Florida, was nearly half the figure of a year ago, while attendance among workers held steady at about 2,000 potential applicants, Price said.

Still, many organizations report difficulties finding qualified workers, she said. On both the employer and the employee sides, a “post and pray” job application strategy has taken hold that leads to worse outcomes for both, she said. More successful outcomes on both fronts have come from local relationships and face-to-face outreach.

A bright spot has been local government, Price said — something that is reflected in the national data, which shows employment in local government roles has continuously expanded since the Covid-19 pandemic recovery set in.

“It’s a weird market,” she said.

Questions about the health of the labor market now dominate discussions about whether the Federal Reserve should continue to cut interest rates. On Monday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a December cut was needed to stem further job-market deterioration.

“My focus is on the labor market, and after months of weakening, it is unlikely that the September jobs report later this week or any other data in the next few weeks would change my view that another cut is in order,” he said.

In his speech last month announcing a 0.25% rate cut, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was more circumspect, saying it appeared that the jobs market was weakening only gradually and signaling he was not ready to guarantee a December rate cut was inevitable.

The Fed’s divisions were laid bare in meeting notes released Wednesday from the October rate-setting meeting that showed a sharp split among policymakers about the risk that lower rates would spur already-elevated inflation by making it easier for consumers and businesses to borrow money.

“Most participants noted that, against a backdrop of elevated inflation readings and a very gradual cooling of labor market conditions, further” interest-rate cuts “could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched,” the notes said.

So far, many economic analysts have been reluctant to call it a full-blown jobs crisis, pointing to data from state-level claims for unemployment that remain subdued and recent reports from the payrolls processor ADP showing a slight rebound in new hires.

“Fears of a renewed labour market downturn, amid reports of mass layoffs at several large firms, are not reflected in still-muted jobless claims or the pick-up in hiring in the ADP private payrolls report,” Thomas Ryan, North America economist for Capital Economics research group, wrote in a note published last week.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Shoppers are still flocking to Walmart.

The company raised its full-year earnings and sales outlook Thursday, heading into the crucial holiday shopping season.

Walmart also offered fresh signs that it is shedding its original identity as a strictly down-market brick-and-mortar operation by growing its e-commerce business and increasing its market share of higher-income shoppers.

Walmart’s shares closed more than 6% higher Thursday, even as the broader market suffered a dramatic sell-off. The stock is up more than 18% this year.

The biggest retailer and grocer in the United States acknowledged the added financial pressures on lower-income households but said middle-income families are holding up. Walmart saw more sales growth in its grocery and health and wellness product categories than in general merchandise.

‘As pocketbooks have been stretched, you’re seeing more consumer dollars go to necessities versus discretionary items,’ Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said on a call with analysts Thursday morning.

The company reported that same-store sales for Walmart U.S. rose 4.5% in the quarter that ended Oct. 31, exceeding analysts’ expectations.

“The team delivered another strong quarter across the business. eCommerce was a bright spot again this quarter. We’re gaining market share, improving delivery speed, and managing inventory well,” outgoing CEO Doug McMillon said in a statement.

Walmart reported 27% growth in e-commerce sales globally.

Walmart also announced that it will move from trading on the New York Stock Exchange to the tech-heavy Nasdaq next month. It’s the latest sign of America’s largest private employer working to position itself as tech-forward in order to compete with Amazon.

The discounter’s third-quarter earnings come amid growing questions about whether Americans contending with tariffs, corporate layoffs and accelerating inflation are still confidently spending on retail.

As a bellwether for the U.S. economy and consumer confidence, Walmart’s strong earnings and guidance indicate that consumers are still shopping — at least at the lower end of the retail price point.

The company announced last week that McMillon will step down in January. McMillon, 59, started at Walmart as an associate in the 1980s and has helmed the company since 2014.

Under his leadership, Walmart improved pay and benefits for many employees, renovated hundreds of stores and boosted its e-commerce and delivery programs, especially during the Covid pandemic.

John Furner, CEO of Walmart U.S., will take over the top job Feb. 1. Since 2019, Furner has led Walmart’s American operations — by far the largest slice of the company, with around 1.6 million of Walmart’s approximately 2.1 million total associates worldwide.

Walmart is leading the retail race against longtime rival Target, which Wednesday reported a drop in third-quarter sales and cut its full-year profit guidance.

Target’s sales have faltered over the last few years, with some consumers expressing frustration over what they said were disorganized stores and rollbacks of the company’s diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.

In October, Target said it would cut about 1,800 corporate jobs.

Target is hoping for a fresh start in the new year. Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke will take over Feb. 1, the same day Furner becomes CEO of Walmart.

The struggling retailer said Wednesday that it plans to increase its investment in stores and technology next year by 25%.

Since January, U.S. businesses have had to contend with ever-changing tariffs under the Trump administration. Walmart has navigated the uncertainty by raising prices on some items, while swallowing some tariff costs on others. In the three months that ended Oct. 31, prices at Walmart U.S. rose around 1% overall, with higher prices on electronics, toys and seasonal items in particular due to tariff pressures.

In the grocery section, Walmart expects egg prices to drop but anticipates the record-breaking beef prices will stay high, in part from cattle herds shrinking over the last few decades.

Prices for other grocery staples are also up, though the Trump administration’s rollback of tariffs on many food items last week could offer some relief.

Despite the rising prices, Walmart is offering its annual Thanksgiving menu deal for 10 at less than $4 per person. It’s less expensive than last year’s package, but it also contains fewer items.

The company is also expanding its use of artificial intelligence, teaming up with OpenAI to allow customers to buy from Walmart within ChatGPT. Walmart has not detailed the terms of the partnership or shared when the new option could be available.

This week, Target announced its own collaboration with OpenAI.

Walmart has lagged behind rival Amazon in AI-driven e-commerce — Amazon debuted its Rufus shopping assistant in February 2024, more than a year before Walmart launched its counterpart, Sparky.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Walmart announced Friday that longtime CEO Doug McMillon will retire at the end of January — which came as a surprise to some given the company’s success in a rapidly evolving retail landscape.

John Furner, Walmart’s U.S. CEO, will assume the role of overall CEO on Feb. 1, the company said. McMillon will continue to serve in an executive and advisory role through January 2027. Furner, 51, began his career at Walmart as an hourly associate.

McMillon, 59, has held the top job since 2014 and is only the fifth person to lead the storied company in its 63-year history.

McMillon has overseen a radical transformation of Walmart’s image in a little over a decade.

In 2014, Walmart had a reputation as a budget retail option and was accused of underpaying its associates. Today, it draws more well-to-do shoppers and has earned credit for adopting innovative personnel policies.

McMillon also built up Walmart’s e-commerce operation into the country’s second-largest, behind only Amazon. Over the course of McMillon’s tenure, the value of Walmart’s shares has increased some 300%.

“Serving as Walmart’s CEO has been a great honor and I’m thankful to our Board and the Walton family for the opportunity,” McMillon said in a statement. “I’ve worked with John for more than 20 years. … He’s uniquely capable of leading the company through this next AI-driven transformation.”

America’s retail landscape continues to rapidly evolve, as consumer spending habits increasingly bifurcate between wealthier households and everyone else.

However, Walmart’s quarterly results have held steady — and the company has been justly rewarded by investors. Just this year, Walmart shares have climbed around 13%. Over the course of McMillon’s tenure, the retailer’s stock price is up some 300%.

On Walmart’s most recent earnings call in August, McMillon indicated the company has been able to withstand the broader pressures facing consumers. Its shoppers’ “behavior has been generally consistent,” he said. “We aren’t seeing dramatic shifts.”

Other retailers have not been so fortunate.

Target’s shares have lost about one-third of their value this year, as the chain works to regain its footing in a more value-conscious environment. In August, longtime CEO Brian Cornell announced plans to step down.

Amazon, meanwhile, has fared slightly better as consumers continue to prioritize the convenience of online shopping. But it recently announced thousands of layoffs affecting corporate employees. Amazon’s share price has climbed about 8% this year.

McMillon has also steered Walmart through a volatile period in U.S. politics, during which elected officials have engaged directly with companies and consumers have proven willing to boycott corporate giants over social issues.

Walmart found itself in President Donald Trump’s crosshairs in May, after it signaled plans to increase some prices in response to his tariffs.

“Walmart should STOP trying to blame Tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “Between Walmart and China they should, as is said, ‘EAT THE TARIFFS,’ and not charge valued customers ANYTHING. I’ll be watching, and so will your customers!!!”

While subsequent reports indicated that Walmart had indeed increased prices on some items, McMillon said in August that the changes were gradual enough that consumer habits shifted only modestly.

Six months after Trump singled Walmart out over tariffs, he did so again — but for a very different reason.

In recent weeks, the Trump White House has repeatedly touted Walmart’s 2025 Thanksgiving menu package — which costs less overall than the retailer’s similar menu did last year — as a sign that the president’s economic policies have helped drive down grocery prices for consumers.

But there is a flaw in that rationale. This year’s Walmart Thanksgiving menu contains fewer items than last year’s menu did.

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