In this video, Dave breaks down bearish macro signals and risk management using the “line in the sand” technique! Learn how to spot key support levels, set alerts on StockCharts, and protect your portfolio!
This video originally premiered on February 26, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!
Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.
As “economic softening” increasingly emerges as the prevailing narrative driving the markets, the retail sector occupies a peculiar space amid these shifts in investor confidence, inflation fears, and looming tariff woes. This is because retail straddles both cyclical and defensive sectors, accounting for a huge chunk of Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples spending. January retail spending saw its sharpest decline in two years, though post-holiday spending may have distorted the data. The coming report in mid-March might provide a clearer picture.
In a nutshell, here’s what’s weighing on investors’ minds:
Despite these challenges, analysts are expecting moderate growth for retail in 2025. With that in mind, let’s take a look at where retail stands relative to Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Consumer Staples (XLP), and the S&P 500 ($SPX).
Below is a PerfCharts view.
FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS COMPARING XRT WITH XLY, XLP, AND THE S&P 500. Retail underperformed all of its peer components.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
I’m using the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) as the retail sector proxy. Its holdings are primarily concentrated in discretionary retail (broadline, apparel, automotive, and specialty), with secondary holdings in staples (food and drug retail).
Over the last year, XRT has lagged the broader market and the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors, in which it has some participation. Yet Wall Street expects moderate and stable growth in discretionary and staple retail spending, respectively. With XRT beaten down among its peers, could it be approaching a bottom and presenting a potential buying opportunity?
Below is a weekly chart of XRT.
FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF XRT. It doesn’t seem like there was much going on over the last three years.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
XRT had a significant rise, a sizable decline where its valuation was cut in half, a volatile period of sideways movement, and a higher and less volatile period of even more sideways movement leading to where it is now.
The Bollinger Bands® will help you visualize the strength of the trends (when XRT was trending) and the upper and lower threshold of its varying sideways movement over the last three years or so. If XRT is poised for moderate growth, its position near the lower Bollinger Band suggests a potential long entry. But is this just another rangebound trade to be sold near the upper Bollinger Band?
Let’s take a closer look at a daily chart.
FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF XRT. A swing trader’s paradise?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The cycles aren’t perfect, but that’s what you’re immediately presented with here. XRT seems to be trading in sync with the Stochastic Oscillator, which is particularly effective in forecasting turning points in a non-trending market such as this one. The Keltner Channel, which is slightly less sensitive to volatility than Bollinger Bands because it is based on the Average True Range (ATR) rather than standard deviation, pairs effectively with the stochastic oscillator for anticipating market reversals and “fading” tops and bottoms.
So is this a “trading” stock or a stock you can invest in for the longer term? Here’s how I’d approach it.
Retail’s dual role in discretionary and staple spending makes it difficult to forecast, and XRT’s sideways movement reflects that uncertainty. Swing traders may find short-term opportunities, but long-term investors should wait for a clear breakout. Without momentum, staying on the sidelines might be the safer choice.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) reported strong Q4 earnings earlier in February, and prospects remain strong for 2025, although it may face some headwinds. The recent earnings announcement for the company led to a pullback in the stock price; however, BMY is now showing signs of recovery and gaining some momentum.
The stock caught my interest when I ran my StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) scan on Thursday evening. An attractive price point and the recent strength of the Health Care sector enticed me to do a deeper dive into the stock’s charts.
The Health Care sector was in a steady downfall from September to December 2024. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) deviated from the downfall and trended higher during this time. The daily chart of BMY below shows the stock’s performance relative to the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV). Since September 30, 2024, BMY’s performance has outperformed XLV’s. Even during the February pullback, the stock was performing better than the Health Care sector.
FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB. The SCTR score has crossed 76, the MACD is crossing over into positive territory, and BMY is outperforming XLV.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The SCTR score in the upper panel didn’t display strength until November and, even though it crossed above 76, it didn’t go higher than 92. In late January, the SCTR score fell below the 76 level.
The following points are worth noting:
If BMY’s stock price continues to rise higher there could be an opportunity to add some positions of this stock. How high could the stock price go? The probability of BMY hitting its 52-week high is high, but, for a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, there needs to be strong upside momentum. The weekly chart below shows the stock has the potential to rise to around the $72 level.
FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB. A break above the upper Bollinger Band, rising RSI, and crossover of the stochastic oscillator point to further upside move in the stock price.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The bottom line: I’ll be monitoring Bristol Myers Squibb’s stock price closely. I’ve set an alert to notify me when the stock price crosses above $61. If the indicators in the daily chart still indicate buying pressure is strong and the trend is bullish, I’ll consider adding BMY to my portfolio.
[country is US] and [sma(20,volume) > 100000] and [[SCTR.us.etf x 76] or [SCTR.large x 76] or [SCTR.us.etf x 78] or [SCTR.large x 78] or [SCTR.us.etf x 80] or [SCTR.large x 80]]
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
Elon Musk’s status as the world’s wealthiest person is in no danger of changing.
But since mid-December, the tech titan’s net worth has declined by more than $100 billion, or approximately 25%, as a sell-off in shares of Tesla, his electric car maker, has accelerated in recent weeks.
On Tuesday, the stock closed down another 8% to $302.80 and is off 25% year to date. The latest drawdown comes as new data showed new Tesla vehicle registrations plummeting in Europe, down 45% year-on-year for January, even as overall sales growth of electric-battery vehicles on the continent climbed. Sales in China also recently came in trending down.
Some reports have suggested European buyers are revolting against Musk’s active role in the Trump administration, which is effectively resetting longstanding European relations.
Investors may also simply be locking in the extraordinary gains of the past year or so: Even with the recent drop-off, the stock is still up 52% over the past 12 months.
On Tuesday, Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund investment group, said Tesla shares could fall even further this year given an apparent revision in recent Tesla corporate management guidance about deliveries in 2025.
Musk has assumed an unprecedented — and highly controversial — role in American society with his alliance with President Donald Trump and his ostensible leadership of the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency. Musk also leads SpaceX; the social media platform X; the xAI artificial intelligence company; and Neuralink, a company that is exploring brain-chip implants.
Yet Tesla investors have grown accustomed to Musk’s multiple responsibilities — and indeed, continue to value Tesla stock highly because they see Musk as a uniquely capable figure.
To that point, some investors say Tesla’s recent stock reversal may not endure in the long term. The company is expected to deploy a robo-taxi service later this year, and continues to roll out new models to adapt to shifting driver preferences. It is also unveiling its full-self-driving technology in China.
“Tesla’s superior products, new more affordable vehicle, which I believe will be a new form factor and expand Tesla’s total addressable market, and the promise of unsupervised autonomy will sell more Teslas,” Black wrote on X over the weekend.
Electric vehicle maker Lucid Group on Tuesday said CEO Peter Rawlinson is stepping down as the company expects to more than double vehicle production this year to 20,000 units.
Lucid said Marc Winterhoff, currently the company’s chief operating officer, will step in as interim CEO. Rawlinson will serve as a “strategic technical advisor to the chairman of the board, stepping aside from his prior roles,” the company said.
“I am incredibly proud of the accomplishments the Lucid team have achieved together through my tenure of these past twelve years,” Rawlinson said in a statement.
Rawlinson’s departure is unexpected. As one of the company’s largest shareholders, Rawlinson, who also served as chief technology officer, has routinely touted his passion and stake in the automaker.
Lucid’s board has initiated a search to identify a new CEO, the company said.
The CEO change and production target were announced in conjunction with the automaker’s fourth-quarter financial results. For the period ended Dec. 31, the company reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $636.9 million, or a loss of 22 cents per share, on revenue of $234.5 million.
Analysts surveyed by LSEG expected a loss of 25 cents per share on revenue of $214 million.
During the same period last year, Lucid reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $653.8 million, or a loss of 29 cents per share, on revenue of $157.2 million.
The production target for 2025 announced Tuesday is compared with production of 9,029 vehicles and deliveries of 10,241 reported for 2024.
Shares of Lucid were about 10% higher during afterhours trading Tuesday.
As of market close, shares of the company were down about 13% this year amid slower-than-expected adoption of all-electric vehicles and uncertainty about federal support for EVs under the Trump administration. The stock declined by roughly 28% last year.
Paramount Global told its employees this week that it’s ending numerous diversity, equity and inclusion policies, according to a memo obtained by CNBC.
In the memo sent to employees Wednesday, Paramount said it would comply with President Donald Trump’s executive order banning the practice in the federal government and demanding that agencies investigate private companies over their DEI programs.
Co-CEOs George Cheeks, Chris McCarthy and Brian Robbins cited the executive order in the memo, as well as the Supreme Court and federal mandates, as the impetus for the media giant’s policy changes.
Among the changes, the company said it “will no longer set or use aspirational numerical goals related to the race, ethnicity, sex or gender of hires.” Paramount also said it ended its policy of collecting such stats for its U.S. job applicants on forms and career pages, except in the markets where it’s legally required to do so.
“To be the best storytellers and to continue to drive success, we must have a highly talented, dedicated and creative workforce that reflects the perspectives and experiences of our many different audiences. Values like inclusivity and collaboration are a part of the Paramount culture and will continue to be,” the co-CEOs wrote in the memo.
They added that they will continue to evaluate their policies and seek talent from all backgrounds.
Paramount has taken part in a number of diversity, equity and inclusion efforts. It donated millions to racial justice causes in 2020 after the police murder of George Floyd and has touted initiatives such as a supplier diversity program and Content for Change, a campaign to overhaul storytelling about racial equity and mental health. The company has hosted an annual Inclusion Week for years and maintains an Office of Global Inclusion.
“Diversity, equity and inclusion is fundamental to our business,” former CEO Bob Bakish said at Paramount’s 2023 Inclusion Week, according to The Hollywood Reporter.
Paramount joins companies like Walmart, Target and Amazon in rolling back their DEI goals and policies in recent months. Others, like Apple and Costco, have publicly defended and committed to their DEI stances, even as the Trump administration has escalated its attacks on the practices.
Media companies have taken a variety of steps to respond to the Trump administration’s policy changes since the president’s inauguration last month.
Earlier this month, Disney changed its DEI programs, which included updating performance factors and rebranding initiatives and employee resource groups, among other things.
Around the same time, public broadcaster PBS — which, as a recipient of federal funding, is more directly affected by Trump’s order than corporations are — said it would shut down its DEI office. CNBC reported that DEI employees would exit the company in order for it to stay in compliance with Trump’s executive order.
Meanwhile, the Federal Communications Commission began investigating Comcast over its DEI efforts. Trump’s executive order, signed on his first day in office, directs federal agencies to identify and probe “most egregious and discriminatory DEI practitioners” in their sectors. Comcast previously said in a statement it would cooperate with the investigation.
Disclosure: Comcast owns NBCUniversal, the parent company of CNBC.
Editor’s Note: This story contains graphic descriptions of violence and abuse.
Israel has systematically targeted Palestinian healthcare workers in Gaza, arbitrarily detaining them without charge or access to legal counsel, and submitting them to torture and abuse, according to a new report by Physicians for Human Rights Israel (PHRI).
Between July and December, lawyers working with the Israeli nonprofit group said they visited over two dozen Palestinian medical workers, including physicians, nurses and paramedics, aged between at least 21 and 69, who had spent more than six months in isolation after having been seized by Israeli forces.
In the 21-page report released Wednesday, PHRI said that the testimonies from healthcare personnel indicate that their arrests were primarily used by Israel to gather intelligence rather than investigate their alleged involvement in armed conflict or link them to criminal activity.
“This suggests a systemic policy that violates human rights and, more broadly, indicates that such arrests are arbitrary and unlawful under international legal standards,” PHRI said.
The heathcare professionals interviewed by PHRI were held in several facilities run by the Israeli military and the Israel Prison Service (IPS), including Sde Teiman, Ktzi’ot Prison and Nafha Prison, in southern Israel, Petah Tikva in central Israel and Ofer Prison, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
Their testimonies suggest detainees were subjected to dehumanizing, near-daily abuse, the group said. Healthcare workers have alleged they experienced sexual abuse, beatings, dog attacks, starvation, sensory overload and had boiling water poured on them.
The Israeli military held more than 250 health workers in Gaza by September, according to Healthcare Workers Watch Palestine, which has been collecting information about medical professionals working in the strip since the war started on October 7, 2023. Over 180 remain in detention, PHRI said.
PHRI called for the immediate release of all detained medical personnel and “guarantees that the fundamental rights and protections of medical workers are upheld.”
In its report, PHRI said that the testimonies it gathered suggested medical workers were heavily targeted for their profession and their detention had destructive consequences for Gaza’s healthcare system. More than 15 months of Israeli bombing following the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on Israel has decimated Gaza’s medical system and killed more than 1,000 health workers, according to the United Nations and the Ministry of Health in the Palestinian enclave.
Many of the healthcare workers said they were interrogated about Israeli hostages, tunnels, weapons, hospitals and Hamas’ activity – some for up to 12 hours and while being beaten or hung from the ceiling. Others told PHRI they were asked about fellow physicians.
Israel says that Hamas has operated inside and underneath hospitals, and used them for its military operations, including as command centers, weapons stores and to hide hostages. Hamas has repeatedly denied the claims.
Palestinians from Gaza are held in Israel under the Unlawful Combatants law, enacted in 2002, which allows authorities to “detain Palestinians from Gaza en masse without charge or trial,” according to Amnesty International. Rights groups and the UN Human Rights Office say their detention for extended periods without charge, access to lawyers or contact with families violates international law.
The Israeli military says this practice is permitted under the Geneva Conventions, which govern the conduct of war, and allow the detention of civilians for security reasons.
Twenty out of the 24 medical staff interviewed were arrested while carrying out their duties, including at hospitals, PHRI said, accusing Israel of breaching their right to “perform life-saving tasks.” The remaining four were detained at their homes, in displacement camps, or at checkpoints.
Upon their arrest, medical workers told PHRI they were stripped naked, handcuffed, blindfolded, forced to prostrate, and detained for hours to days.
“At every stage, we endured beatings and severe violence — batons, dog attacks, and boiling water poured on us, causing severe burns,” said Dr. N.T., 49, head of surgery at Nasser Hospital, southern Gaza, who was arrested in February 2024 and taken to Sde Teiman, Ofer and Ktzi’ot prisons.
Dr. K.J., a dentist arrested in March by Israeli forces at Gaza City’s Al-Shifa Hospital, where he had sought shelter with his family, said he and other captives were beaten while inside a bus on their way to Sde Teiman. “We were punched, kicked, and hit in the testicles and all over our bodies,” he told PHRI.
Several medics held at Sde Teiman described similar conditions to PHRI, including that soldiers allowed dogs to urinate and defecate on prisoners, and oversaw sexual and psychological torture.
Dr Khaled Alser, a 32-year-old surgeon detained from Nasser Hospital in March, said that he personally examined fellow detainees after they were sexually abused, “including the insertion of batons or electric rods into the buttocks.” PHRI said that Alser was released after seven months in detention without charge.
Other detainees who spoke with PHRI described a method of abuse used in interrogations referred to as the “Disco Room.” Three Palestinians health workers said they were held in a space with bright lights and loud music to sensorily overload them before being bombarded with questions like: “Where are the hostages,” or “Where are the tunnel entrances.”
Guards escalated the brutality of their beatings in the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, several eyewitnesses told PHRI.
PHRI said that Palestinian health workers also described “pervasive medical neglect” in incarceration, where they said Israeli authorities starved detainees, restricted access to showers, and ignored requests for drugs.
One nurse said they had lost more than 25 kilograms over 11 months in detention.
One doctor told PHRI they attempted to care for their fellow detainees by improvising surgeries using pieces of plastic disinfected with bleach. In other cases, they said they witnessed limbs being amputated, while others died from their injuries.
An orthopedic specialist said he tried to appeal to an Israeli doctor’s collegial solidarity, only to be slapped and called a “terrorist.”
Meanwhile, PHRI said that some prisoners they interviewed were flatly denied legal representation, forced to sign testimony documents in Hebrew, or denied access to evidence of alleged crimes and “credible, translated” testimony in their native language. Others were given truncated court hearings without a lawyer present, the organization said. A handful of medics said they were told they would be held in detention, even though there was no indictment against them.
A surgeon detained in Ofer Prison told PHRI he had a court hearing on the sixtieth day of his detention in April. “I was left waiting in the sun for eight hours, during which soldiers beat me, threw stones at me, and spat on me,” said a 42-year-old surgeon listed in the report as Dr. A.M., who PHRI says was arrested at Nasser Hospital, southern Gaza.
“At the hearing, they stated, ‘There is no indictment against you, but you will remain in detention until the war is over,’” he said.
Dozens of Uyghur men detained in Thailand after fleeing China may have been secretly deported to their home country, activists and rights groups said on Thursday, warning they could face torture and imprisonment on their return.
The 48 men were arrested by Thai authorities 11 years ago after crossing the border to Thailand in an attempt to escape persecution in China and had been kept in detention and legal limbo ever since.
On Thursday Thai opposition lawmaker Kannavee Suebsang cited unspecified reports suggesting it was “very likely” the group had been sent back to China on Thursday morning.
Subsang posted images on his Facebook page showing six vans with covered up windows, leaving the Bangkok immigration center where it was believed the group had been held.
“I did expect a message, so when nothing came through I tried calling and messaging him but no reply,” he said.
China’s repression of Uyghurs and other predominately Muslim ethnic minorities in its far western region of Xinjiang has been labeled “genocide” by the US and other countries, with widespread and credible reports of arbitrary detention, mass surveillance, forced labor and restrictions on movement – allegations China vehemently denies.
Chinese state news agency Xinhua said that 40 Chinese nationals who had illegally crossed the border into Thailand were deported and repatriated to China on Thursday.
The report, which cited the public security ministry, did not mention the deportees’ ethnicity or other identifying details.
“The Chinese citizens deported this time were lured by criminal organizations, illegally exited the country, and subsequently stranded in Thailand,” the ministry said in a written Q&A.
In response to a question on the deportation of Uyghur men from Thailand, China’s foreign ministry cited the information in the public security ministry’s statement.
“This deportation was carried out based on the laws of both China and Thailand, as well as international law and conventions,” foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a regular news briefing. He also repeated Beijing’s standard language refuting accusations of rights violations in the region, calling these “lies and fallacies related to Xinjiang.”
Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra did not confirm any deportations had taken place when asked by reporters.
“In any country in the world actions must adhere to the principles of law, international processes, and human rights,” she said.
Thailand’s national police commissioner Kitrat Phanphet also declined to comment on the reports, citing security reasons, according to Thai PBS World, a public service broadcaster.
Thailand is not a party to the 1951 Refugee Convention and does not recognize the concept of asylum. The Southeast Asian kingdom has a history of pushing refugees back across its borders and of deporting dissidents.
In 2015, Thailand deported 100 Uyghurs to China, sparking international outcry. The fate and whereabouts of those returned are unknown, UN experts said last year.
Human Rights Watch said “approximately 40” Uyghurs had been transferred by the Thai government to Chinese officials in Bangkok, who then sent them to China, without citing a source.
“Thailand’s transfer of Uyghur detainees to China constitutes a blatant violation of Thailand’s obligations under domestic and international laws,” Elaine Pearson, Asia director at Human Rights Watch (HRW) said.
“The men now face a high risk of torture, enforced disappearance, and long-term imprisonment in China.”
Many of the detainees are in “extremely poor health after enduring years in detention,” Amnesty International said, adding that their forcible return to China would be “unimaginably cruel.”
The World Uyghur Congress, an international advocacy group, on Wednesday called on Thailand’s government to “immediately halt the planned deportation of 48 Uyghur refugees to China,” with the group claiming the deportation was planned for Thursday.
US officials expressed “deep concern” over the reports.
“These individuals face a credible risk of imprisonment, torture, or death upon return to a regime that has systematically persecuted Uyghurs through mass internment, forced labor, and other grave abuses,” said John Moolenaar and Raja Krishnamoorthi.
The detained men were part of a larger group of about 350 people detained in 2014, some of whom were minors, according to previous reports from UN experts, rights groups, and Uyghur campaigners.
Five Uyghur detainees, including a newborn and a 3-year-old, have died in detention, the reports said.
In early January, activist Hidayat shared a voice note from one of the detainees, who said the men had been on hunger strike since January 10 in a desperate protest against deportation.
The detainees have said they wish to be sent to a third country and “live in peace” with their families.
Among the prominent voices adding pressure on Thailand was US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who told his Senate confirmation hearing ahead of being sworn in that he would lobby Bangkok against deporting the Uyghur men.
Israel will not withdraw its forces from the Gaza-Egypt border, according to an Israel source.
The military was supposed to begin withdrawing from that region in early March if the current ceasefire, which expires Saturday, were extended.
“We will not allow Hamas murderers to roam again with trucks and rifles on our borders, and we will not let them strengthen themselves again through smuggling.”
The Israeli military took control of the corridor in May and was due to withdraw from it during a potential second phase of the truce agreement. It is not clear if negotiations for a second phase have started.
This is a breaking news story and will be updated.
Ioan Gliga said both Andrew and Tristan Tate left Romania on Thursday morning.
The pair had previously been banned from leaving Romania pending a criminal investigation on accusations of forming an organized criminal group, human trafficking, trafficking of minors, sexual intercourse with a minor and money laundering. They have denied all wrongdoing.
Romania’s foreign minister last week said he had not come under pressure from US President Donald Trump’s envoy to lift restrictions on Tate, despite them discussing the case.
The Financial Times reported earlier, citing sources, that US officials had brought up the case of Tate and his brother, both former kickboxers with dual US and British citizenship, in a phone call to the Romanian government.
Tate – who shot to internet fame in recent years, racking up billions of views on TikTok with diatribes about male dominance, female submission and wealth – was banned from almost all social media platforms before Trump’s now adviser Elon Musk took over X and reinstated his account.
A first criminal case against Tate and his brother – who were arrested three years ago – failed in December when a Bucharest court decided not to start the trial, citing flaws in the indictment.
A Romanian court lifted a house arrest order against Tate in January, replacing it with a lighter preventative measure. In October, a court ruled he should get back luxury cars worth about 4 million euros ($4.43 million) that were seized by prosecutors, pending the investigations.