The key resistance level I’ve been watching on the S&P 500 hasn’t wavered. It’s 5782. The bulls had a real chance this past week to clear this important hurdle and they failed. Badly. If this was a heavyweight fight, the ref would have called it after the first round. It simply wasn’t close. Resistance failed, rotation turned bearish, volatility again expanded, and the bears are celebrating another short-term victory.
Check out this S&P 500 chart:
I’ve written about this to EarningsBeats.com members. I posted this exact chart in my StockCharts.com article a few days ago. I’ve discussed it on my YouTube shows. 5782 is THE key short-term price resistance and you can see above that the S&P 500 literally did an “about face” as soon as it touched this resistance. Sellers were lined up. Now that we’ve failed at 5782, it only makes this resistance level that much more important on any future rallies.
The serious technical damage occurred over the past 3 days as consumer discretionary stocks have been absolutely TROUNCED, while consumer staples hangs near its recent highs. If you recall, it was this HUGE disparity in consumer stocks on February 21st that triggered the massive selling episode. Now here we are again with consumer staples stocks (XLP) outperforming discretionary (XLY) by a mile. Check out this chart:
Doesn’t the action in consumer stocks the past 3 days exactly mirror the action we saw in the 2nd half of February and into the first week of March? Folks, this isn’t good.
This is just the tip of the iceberg.
Bear Market Ahead?
The S&P 500, from its recent all-time high to its subsequent low, fell 10.4%, which marks correction territory. The rally we saw off the March 13th low was likely due to oversold conditions, along with March options expiration. On Tuesday, March 18th, we discussed with our EB.com members that odds favored a short-term rally, based on max pain and we laid out key resistance from 5670 to 5782, with the 20-day EMA falling in the middle of this price range. Once we failed at 5782, it was very important to gauge the nature of any new selloff. That’s what I’ve been evaluating this week and it’s not pretty. As you can see in the chart above, money has once again started rotating into the XLP and out of the XLY. This is one of the most important intermarket relationships and it’s screaming BEARISH ACTION AHEAD!
It’s only one signal, however. I announced a few days ago that we’d be hosting a FREE webinar on Saturday morning, March 29th, at 10:00am ET. I plan to discuss several signals that are pointing to exactly what we saw on Friday – more selling. To get a better handle on current market conditions and where we’re heading, I’d encourage you to join me Saturday morning by REGISTERING HERE. If you can’t make the live webinar, we’ll still send out the recorded video to all who register, so ACT NOW!
And here’s a little secret. Shhhhhhh! Market makers are playing some serious games manipulating some of the biggest stocks. I’ll talk a bit about how we can take advantage of that Saturday morning. Hope to see you there!
Is a new market uptrend on the horizon? In this video, Mary Ellen breaks down the latest stock market outlook, revealing key signals that could confirm a trend reversal. She dives into sector rotation, explains why defensive stocks are losing ground, and shares actionable short-term trading strategies for oversold stocks. Don’t miss these crucial market insights to spot the next rally before it takes off!
New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.
If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.
President Donald Trump commuted the criminal sentence of Ozy Media founder Carlos Watson on Friday, just hours before Watson was due to begin serving a 116-month prison term for a multi-million-dollar scheme that included falsely claiming the start-up had deals with Google and Oprah Winfrey, a senior White House official said.
Watson had expected to surrender Friday afternoon to the Federal Correctional Institution in Lompoc, California, before he received word of Trump granting him executive clemency, according to a source familiar with the situation.
Trump also commuted the sentence of one year of probation imposed on Ozy Media for the defunct news and entertainment company’s conviction in the same case.
Trump’s actions remove the criminal penalty imposed on Watson and Ozy.
Watson, 55, was convicted at trial in Brooklyn federal court last July of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, and aggravated identity theft. He was sentenced in December.
In February, a federal judge ordered Watson and Ozy to pay almost $60 million in forfeiture and more than $36 million in restitution.
Watson’s defense attorney, Arthur Aidala, declined to comment Friday when contacted by CNBC.
A spokesman for the Brooklyn U.S. Attorney’s Office, which prosecuted Watson, also declined to comment on the commutation of his sentence.
Glenn Martin, a criminal justice reform advocate, in a tweet on Friday wrote, “We did it,” above a photo of him and Watson.
“President Trump commuted the sentences of Ozy Media and Carlos Watson hours before his surrender,” the tweet said.
″@CarlosWatson is not going to prison today,” Martin wrote.
“First and foremost, thank God for His grace, mercy and the power of redemption. A very special note of appreciation to @AliceMarieFree,” he added, referring to his fellow criminal justice reform advocate Alice Marie Johnson.
“Your advocacy, compassion, and relentless pursuit of fairness have made this moment possible for people like Carlos.”
When Watson was sentenced, then-Brooklyn U.S. Attorney Breon Peace said, “Carlos Watson orchestrated a years-long, audacious scheme to defraud investors and lenders to his company, Ozy Media, out of tens of millions of dollars.”
Prosecutors said that Watson and his co-conspirators between 2018 and 2021 defrauded investors by misrepresenting Ozy’s financial performance, its ongoing business relationships and its acquisition prospects, as well as its contract negotiations.
Ozy abruptly shut down in October 2021, after The New York Times reported that the company’s chief operating officer, Samir Rao, had impersonated a YouTube executive on a conference call with Goldman Sachs.
The investment bank was considering a $40 million investment in Ozy at the time.
British police raided a Quaker meeting house in London on Thursday and arrested six women attending a meeting on climate change and the war in Gaza, according to a statement from Quakers UK.
“No-one has been arrested in a Quaker meeting house in living memory,” said Paul Parker, recording clerk for Quakers in Britain, according to the statement.
“This aggressive violation of our place of worship and the forceful removal of young people holding a protest group meeting clearly shows what happens when a society criminalizes protest,” Parker added.
Quakers, a nickname for members of the Religious Society of Friends, follow a religious tradition that originally grew from Protestant Christianity in the 17th century.
Quakers have a long history of supporting protest movements and non-violence is one of their core beliefs.
The first time he flew his cargo plane through the clouds over his hometown of Kabul, Tauheed Khan swelled with pride.
During the US-led, 20-year war against the Taliban, Afghan Air Force pilots played a key role alongside American counterparts, some carrying out strikes that inflicted heavy casualties on the hardline Islamists.
That coalition ended in August 2021, when foreign troops withdrew and Kabul fell to the Taliban.
Khan now finds himself in neighboring Pakistan with his young family, fearing that they could be killed if they return to an Afghanistan now under the grip of the very forces he fought against.
Worsening their plight, anti-migrant policies in both Washington and Islamabad mean time is running out to find a safe alternative, including a looming deadline at the end of this month.
The war, which began with the US invasion in 2001 following the September 11 attacks, devastated Afghanistan’s civilian population, which is still recovering.
The ousting of the Taliban by the US-led coalition led to profound changes, including a return of democracy and significant improvements for Afghanistan’s women. But war and instability raged across swathes of the nation, especially in rural areas.
Tens of thousands were killed. Civilian losses escalated to 5,183 dead in the first six months of 2021, as the US began to pull out from Afghanistan and depend further on the Afghan military. A five-year study published by the United Nations in 2021 showed that 785 children died from US and AAF airstrikes over that period.
As the US finally pulled out, the Afghan army and government collapsed, allowing Taliban fighters to sweep back into power. Afghans affiliated with the former government are “most at risk” from the new Taliban administration, according to a report published by Human Rights Watch.
HRW and the United Nations have documented “extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, arbitrary arrests and detention, and torture and other ill-treatment” of Afghans who were in the security forces.
‘Pilots risk everything’
Khan’s friend, 37-year-old Khapalwaka is equally terrified. A trained aviation engineer, he worked as part of the AAF’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance program. His job involved clearing out civilian areas before they were targeted by US drone strikes.
He said he was assigned the task by his superiors, something he had often protested. “I soon became a target of the local Taliban faction,” said Khapalwaka, who had to move house every “three to four months” for safety reasons, even before Kabul fell.
Now selling wood by the roadside to feed his family, Khapalwaka – who, like Khan, was speaking under a pseudonym – said he’s concerned the Taliban could reach him in Pakistan too. “I know that they have contacts here, that they could target me here if they wanted… I just want to get out of here, so my daughters have a chance to be educated.”
The Afghan Taliban denied that former pilots were at risk if they returned.
The US embassy in Islamabad did not respond to a request to comment.
Left in limbo
Khan sat in a small room of his tiny apartment in a non-descript Islamabad building. Bedspreads shrouded windows as makeshift curtains, but slivers of sunlight poked through, making harsh blotches on the faces of his small children, who slept tucked together in frayed blankets on the floor, oblivious to the sound around them.
The youngest child was awake and constantly jumping on Khan’s lap as he spoke of the life he left behind.
In the chaos that ensued after the US withdrawal, Khan got to Pakistan in March 2022. He arrived legally and on foot, following the advice of a US pilot who had been one of his trainers.
Since then, Khan said, there has been “silence.”
In the past two months, White House policy has moved in a less predictable, more anti-migrant direction under President Donald Trump, throwing into doubt the prospects for Afghans such as Khan.
Tens of thousands of Afghans have already been caught in limbo due to other Trump administration executive orders suspending the US refugee admissions program and the suspension of foreign aid funding for flights of Afghan Special Immigrant Visa (SIV) holders. According to #AfghanEvac, at least 2,000 Afghans who had previously been approved to resettle in the US are currently in limbo.
March 31 deadline for Afghans in Pakistan
And the days of Pakistan offering at least relative safety may be numbered.
Home to one of the world’s largest refugee populations – most of them from Afghanistan – Pakistan has not always welcomed the foreigners, subjecting them to hostile living conditions and threatening deportation over the years.
According to the UN refugee agency, more than 3 million Afghan refugees, including registered refugees and more than 800,000 undocumented people, are living in Pakistan.
Islamabad has been cracking down on Afghan refugees since October 2023. It had shown leniency towards Afghans awaiting settlement elsewhere, but that changed after an announcement this February that it would repatriate “Afghan nationals bound for 3rd country resettlement,” by March 31.
That deadline will arrive on the Muslim festival of Eid al-Fitr, which ends the holy month of Ramadan. It is a time of celebration, feasting and gift-giving, but for Jawad Ahmed, a former Black Hawk helicopter pilot with the AAF, it feels like “all days are melting into one”.
“I was known in my hometown as someone who worked with the US military and I was a military man myself,” said Ahmed, whose name has also been changed at his request to protect his identity.
He arrived in Pakistan legally and was in limbo for two years. He said he interviewed with US immigration officers in May of 2024 and had his medical interview on January 10 at the US embassy. Since then, like many others including Khan, Ahmad has heard nothing from any US embassy official.
Ahmed spoke of seeing Pakistani police “whisk away” his Afghan neighbors, with an increase in raids over the last two months. His children are “overwhelmed with fear and terror.”
‘Death, difficulties and horrors’
But returning to Afghanistan could be even worse, according to Ahmed. “Only death, difficulties and horrors await us there” he said.
Ahmed’s family in Afghanistan have adopted new names and identities for their safety, eking out a life in a new province.
“Nobody knows about me where they are, nobody knows that they had a son, that they had a brother, in their new world it’s as if I never existed.”
He repeatedly asks for his message to be shared with President Trump and the US government.
“You trained us, we were there for you in a difficult time, we stood shoulder to shoulder with you,” said Ahmed. “We don’t have options in Pakistan, what can we do, please for the love of God get us out of here. We don’t have a life here; we are choking with fear.”
A serving US air force pilot, who asked to remain anonymous, has been assisting Afghan pilots they served alongside.
While serving soldiers have had some success helping families escape to the US, they still “fear for” their Afghan counterparts stuck in Pakistan and other countries and have “anxiety about their current situation and their future,” the pilot said.
Abandoning former partners, according to Vandiver of #AfghanEvac, sends a “chilling message to future US allies – whether in Ukraine, Taiwan, or elsewhere – that partnering with the US is a death sentence once the war ends.”
“China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia are going to eat our lunch because of this.”
A spokesperson for the US embassy said it remains in close communication with Pakistan on the status of Afghan nationals seeking resettlement in America.
As Eid approaches, Tauheed Khan and his friendship group of 27 Afghan pilots and engineers stuck in Islamabad, dream of eating meat to end their fast, of access to education for their children, of new clothes, a better home to live in with proper beds and of a way out.
“We are scared we will be dragged out,” says Khan. “We are under too much pressure, we don’t know what’s going to happen.”
Anxious loved ones waited outside a twisted mass of metal and concrete in the heart of Thailand’s capital on Saturday as rescuers searched for dozens of missing workers and the city confronted the aftermath of a rare and powerful earthquake that set skyscrapers swaying and rattled millions of residents.
Friday’s 7.7-magnitude quake struck hundreds of miles away in impoverished Myanmar, but was strong enough to send shock waves through the forest of high-rise condominiums, shopping malls and offices of central Bangkok, sending water spilling from infinity pools and buckling carriages on the city’s rail network.
In Myanmar some 700 people have been confirmed killed so far and more than 1,600 injured, according to the isolated country’s military government, with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimating the final toll there could surpass 10,000 people according to early modeling.
At least 10 people have died in Bangkok, its deputy governor said, sending shock waves of a different kind through a city that sits on no major tectonic fault.
‘I kept calling’
The ground zero of the devastation in the Thai capital is an under-construction 30-story skyscraper next to the sprawling Chatuchak weekend market popular with the millions of foreign tourists that visit the city each year.
Early Saturday the loved ones of those feared buried under the mountain of broken pillars, rubble and steel sat on plastic chairs at the edge of the excavation site, watching diggers claw through the debris.
“I kept calling, but it was unsuccessful. All I kept hearing was the continuous toot… toot… of a busy signal,” she said.
“I feel like there’s a lump in my stomach, and I have no appetite to eat. I’m worried about my mom and sister still being stuck inside since yesterday. Nowhere to be found.”
She said she had spoken to her sister on Friday morning before they left for work.
“I asked her what she would have for lunch,” she recalled.
In a city where deep inequalities are on stark display, many of Bangkok’s construction workers hail from poorer parts of Thailand, especially its less wealthy northeast, as well as from neighboring Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar.
The collapsed structure was being built by a subsidiary of the China Railway No. 10 Engineering Group, itself a subsidiary of the state-owned China Railway Engineering Corporation (CREC), one of the world’s largest construction and engineering contractors, according to a now-deleted social media post by the group.
The Italian-Thai Development Public Company Limited was also involved in the project, according to Chinese state media report from 2021.
In a post on its official WeChat account on April 2, 2024, China Railway No. 10 Engineering Group celebrated the completion of the building’s main structure on March 31, 2024.
When completed, the 137-meter building was to serve as the office of Thailand’s State Audit Office and other related government agencies, the company said in the post.
Broken skybridge
Elsewhere across the Southeast Asian megacity, glitzy glass-and-steel buildings home to expensive real estate swayed and groaned when the quake hit, showering dust onto the ground.
A bridge connecting two high-rise apartment buildings in an upmarket neighborhood broke during the quake, video showed.
Other videos showed the contents of rooftop infinity pools – a popular status symbol of Bangkok’s well-heeled – sloshing off the sides of towering apartment blocks onto the street below.
Bangkok has expanded at a breakneck pace, with high-rise condos and gleaming skyscrapers shooting up in recent decades.
When the tremors began, Bella Pawita Sunthornpong thought she was experiencing a moment of lightheadedness, “because I was seeing everything was swaying.”
She grabbed her phone and started running down from the 33rd floor, telling others around her to run too. As she made her way out of the building, she said, ceiling paint was falling and everything was still swaying.
“I was thinking, you know, whatever happened, I just need to keep running until I hit the ground,” Pawita Sunthornpong said.
Engineers were rushing Saturday to assess nearly 1,000 reports of “structural concerns” across the city. Authorities said buildings would be graded – green for safe, yellow for buildings with some damage which are usable with caution, and red indicating severe damage requiring closure.
Fresh misery for war-torn Myanmar
The worst damage has taken place hundreds of miles away across the border in Myanmar, a nation far less well equipped to deal with such a large disaster.
The quake struck near Myanmar’s second most populous city, Mandalay, home to historic temple complexes and palaces.
Reuters video from near Mandalay showed a multi-story building collapsing in on itself as the quake hit, sending around a dozen saffron-robed monks ducking for cover.
The city, home to around 1.5 million people, is normally popular with foreign tourists.
But a civil war has raged across the country since the military took power in 2021, ousting civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and ending a 10-year experiment with democratic rule.
Swathes of the country lie outside the control of the junta and are run by a patchwork of ethnic rebels and militias, making compiling reliable information extremely difficult.
The epicenter was recorded in Sagaing region, which borders Mandalay and has been ravaged by the war, with the junta, pro-military militia and rebel groups battling for control and all running checkpoints, making travel by road or river extremely difficult.
Having largely shut the country off from the world during four years of civil war, Min Aung Hlaing – the leader of Myanmar’s military government – issued an “open invitation to any organizations and nations willing to come and help the people in need within our country,” adding the toll was likely to rise.
Several aid agencies said they are mobilizing ground operations.
But the military – which has ruled Myanmar for most of its history since independence from Britain in 1948 – has a long and troubled track record of struggling to respond to major natural disasters, and in the past has granted humanitarian access, only to rescind it later.
According to a high-level Ecuadorian official familiar with the planning, construction of a new naval facility in the coastal city of Manta is part of that preparation, with barracks-style housing and administration offices designed to support sustained operations and US military personnel. The official requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has made no secret of his desire for foreign boots on the ground as gangs unleash terror across the country – a request he is expected to reiterate this weekend. Noboa is set to meet Trump in Florida on Saturday to discuss immigration, trade and “security cooperation.”
Noboa told the BBC he wants the US, Brazil and European nations to join his war on gangs. During an interview in early March, the president claimed Ecuador is dealing with “international narco-terrorist” groups and that his country needs the “help of international forces.” In a local radio interview, he said his government was “already in talks” to receive foreign military support for provinces such as Guayas, known for high crime, but did not specify which countries were involved in the talks.
“We have a plan in place with our law enforcement agencies, the Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of Defense, the armed forces, the Strategic Intelligence Center, and international assistance and support from special forces. That’s essential,” he told Guayaquil’s Radio City.
Noboa’s efforts are heavily dependent on April’s presidential runoff as he’s set off to face leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez, who opposes the presence of any foreign force in the country.
The rapid pace of construction in Manta, the official said, reflects how soon Ecuador hopes international help might arrive.
The projects are supported by the United States, documents appear to show, and a US representative was present at the signing of the agreement, the Ecuadorian official said.
One rendering for a floating dock, dated August 2024, is labeled “Southcom Floating Dock,” an apparent reference to the US Southern Command, also known as Southcom. Another rendering, dated June 2024, has the US State Department’s International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL) logo and the project name of “Equipped Containers for the Ecuador’s Antinarcotics Special Unit and the DEA” and describes the project as an “international collaboration with the US Embassy.”
Plans for these projects have continued under the Trump administration. On March 26, Ecuador’s government announced several US-backed investments “paused due to geopolitical factors” are resuming in the country, with hundreds of thousands of dollars earmarked for construction of a pier and DEA-linked base.
There is precedent; the last time US troops operated here was from 1999 to 2009, at the now-defunct Manta Air Base. Back then, they ran surveillance flights targeting drug routes in the eastern Pacific.
Noboa has also publicly asked the Trump administration to designate Ecuadorian armed groups as terror organizations, as it has already done for several organized crime groups in the region. Such a designation could potentially empower the US government to use military force abroad in combatting the groups.
From ‘island of peace’ to a country on edge
Ecuador now has the highest homicide rate in Latin America, according to InSight Crime – recording nearly twice as many killings as Mexico. The surge is fueled by drug trafficking routes, turf wars, and alliances between local gangs and foreign cartels.
Despite the sweeping operations, many officials admit the violence feels more like it’s being managed than curtailed. Still, dozens of arrests were made.
“Cartels, gangs and other transnational criminal organizations in our part of the world are engaging in a wide array of illicit activity, from narcotics trafficking to money laundering, smuggling of illegal immigrants and human trafficking, which endanger the health, welfare and safety of everyday Americans,” Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said during her testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Tuesday.
Ecuador’s location – flanked by the world’s top cocaine producers, Peru and Colombia – and its deep-water ports make it a key transit point for narcotics. But its vulnerability goes beyond geography.
The dollarized economy and historically loose visa policies make it easy for criminal networks to move money and people. And corruption, experts say, greases the wheels.
“It’s widespread and far-reaching,” said James Bargent of InSight Crime. “Corruption is rampant from low-level police to the upper echelons of political power, and this facilitates trafficking and provides protection to the criminal groups involved.”
In Durán, one of the country’s most violent cities, Police Chief Roberto Santamaria acknowledged corruption among police. He said they sometimes employ random polygraph testing and check bank accounts for unusual activity to try to root out corrupt officers.
Seeking global backing
Noboa has framed his crackdown as both a domestic fight and a global plea for help. Ahead of the runoff election set for April 13, he has positioned himself as a hardliner on security. In January, he and his wife were seated front and center at Trump’s inauguration, applauding as the president vowed to fight cartels and restore “law and order.”
Unlike Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has firmly rejected foreign troops’ involvement against cartels in her country, Noboa is actively seeking it. His face-to-face meeting with Trump this weekend is expected to be his most direct appeal yet for US backing.
Before leaving for Florida, Noboa also addressed Ecuador’s improving ties with the US on Friday. “We’re one of the few countries where cooperation programs are being resumed,” Noboa said to Radio Centro. “We are working on security, on providing jobs so that people don’t leave. And the US has honored that relationship.”
Ecuador’s efforts aren’t limited to government partnerships. This month, Noboa announced a “strategic alliance” with Erik Prince, the founder of the private military firm formerly known as Blackwater.
The partnership – which Noboa described as part of his plan to fight narcoterrorism and illegal fishing – was met with sharp criticism inside Ecuador, including from a former Army commander who warned of turning to a “mercenary army.” Still, it signals how far Noboa is willing to go to bring in outside support.
“They’re helping with training in urban warfare … and bringing new technology,” Noboa said Friday, speaking on Prince’s involvement. “They’ve operated in a dozen countries – including the US.”
For Noboa, foreign support isn’t a distant hope – it’s a strategy already in motion. Ecuador is expanding military infrastructure, clearing political hurdles, and making its case to the region, to its citizens, and now, directly to the United States.
Whether that help arrives – or arrives soon – remains to be seen.
A powerful, deadly earthquake struck at the heart of civil war-ravaged Myanmar on Friday, piling fresh misery on an impoverished nation that was cut off from much of the world even before this natural disaster struck.
The timing could hardly be worse. The Southeast Asian country is reeling from a raging civil war between a military junta that seized power in 2021, and pro-democracy fighters and ethnic rebel groups battling to overthrow it.
The war – now in its fifth year – has ravaged communications and transport in Myanmar, making it particularly difficult to get a clear picture of the damage.
So far authorities say more than 1,000 people have died. But experts fear the real toll will be far higher and could take weeks to emerge.
Here’s what we know so far.
A historic city hit hardest
On Saturday fragments emerged showing the destruction wrought by the quake from former royal capital Mandalay, home to around 1.5 million people and the city closest to its epicenter.
And they spoke of desperately rushing injured loved ones to medical care – or the agonizing wait for news of friends still missing or trapped under the rubble.
“It hit very strong and very fast,” she said of the earthquake. She recalled she was boiling water to make milk for her baby when the 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck not far from her home to the east of the city.
Part of the wall of the house collapsed onto the woman’s grandmother who was sitting nearby, burying her legs in rubble and debris, she said.
“The door couldn’t open as a fence had collapsed onto it. I shouted out for help and my husband came in from the street. He jumped on the door and managed to open it.”
“Until now, we have not been able to recover their dead bodies from rubble,” he said.
The quake also shattered some of the city’s mosques which were busy with worshippers attending Friday prayers, one man said.
“When the buildings collapsed, many Muslims got trapped inside, causing casualties and deaths… In one mosque, there are more than a hundred injured.”
Across the mighty Irrawaddy river that runs past Mandalay, there is also destruction in Sagaing region, a more rural area, where many live in more flimsy – but more earthquake survivable – wooden and thatched houses.
Nang Aye Yin, 34, heard news that the nunnery where a relative of his was studying had collapsed.
“Luckily no one died, but two were badly wounded. One of my nieces aged 11 lost three toes and another nun had her head broken as well as one of her legs.”
Hospitals in both Sagaing and Mandalay turned them away as they were already at full capacity, he said.
A rare call for outside help
Myanmar’s military junta seized power in a 2021 coup after a brief 10-year experiment with democracy. Before that, Myanmar’s generals ruled for decades. And generally, whenever disaster struck, they would eschew foreign help and play down the impact.
This time it’s different.
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing took the unusual step of quickly asking for foreign aid. He visited the city of Mandalay on Saturday to inspect the damage, state media reported, as well as the capital Naypyidaw which was also hit hard.
On Saturday several neighboring countries began sending rescue teams and aid.
A team from China – historically one of the junta’s closest partners – were the first to arrive, touching down in Myanmar’s commercial hub Yangon bringing relief supplies, Chinese state media said.
Singapore, Malaysia, India and Russia also announced they would send help.
But for those in quake-stricken Mandalay, around 380 miles away and with transportation uncertain, the wait driving them mad.
“My head is going to explode while waiting for calls for friends who cannot be found yet,” the former lawyer said.
One of the indicators that Carl Swenlin developed is the Silver Cross Index. It is one of the best participation indicators out there! Here’s how it works:
We consider a positive 20/50-day EMA crossover a “Silver Cross”. If a stock has a Silver Cross it has a bullish bias. The opposite of a Silver Cross is a Dark Cross. Stocks with a Dark Cross have a bearish bias.
The Silver Cross Index measures the percentage of stocks holding Silver Crosses. The current percentage on the Silver Cross Index is just 37% so this tells us that 63% have bearish biases. This condition suggests to us that the market has more downside to absorb.
The Silver Cross Index was nearing a Bullish Shift across its signal line, but instead has topped. It is likely to continue declining given less stocks are above their 20/50-day EMAs versus the Silver Cross Index percentage.
Participation measured by the percent of stocks above their key moving averages are all below our bullish 50% threshold. Stochastics have topped and the PMO topped Friday. The short-term rising trend has been broken. This looks like a textbook reverse flag formation that was confirmed with Friday’s decline. The minimum downside target of the pattern would put price near 480. This sure has the earmarks of a failed bear market rally.
Conclusion: The Silver Cross Index is at a very low 37% and has now topped beneath its signal line. Participation, as measured by the %Stocks > 20/50EMAs, is mediocre at best and reading below the Silver Cross Index. This looks like the end of a bear market rally based on the bear flag that was confirmed on Friday.
(Note: This chart is from our “Under the Hood” ChartList on DecisionPoint.com. We have these charts with the Silver Cross Index for all the major indexes, sectors and select industry groups. All subscriptions include access to these charts!)
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This week, we get back to earnings and, sadly, the pickings are slim.
Given these turbulent times, we have two Consumer Staples stocks to examine — Lamb Weston (LW) and Conagra (CAG). They may not be the most exciting charts, but they show clear levels of interest that are worth noting.
There’s also the highly volatile stock Restoration Hardware (RH), which is trading close to a support level. This stock can be considered a high-risk, high-reward trade.
Let’s dive in…
Lamb Weston (LW)
Lamb Weston, best known for its iconic french fries, has gone on one of the wildest rides over the last four years. After a two-year uptrend, the stock has slowly and steadily gone on a two-year downtrend, giving back all its gains.
Earnings have been quite harsh over the last four quarters. There was one gain of 2.6%, with three losses that included a -19.4%, a -28.2%, and most recently a -20.1% decline. Shares now sit 54% off of all-time highs as the company heads into Thursday’s earnings report.
Technically, there is some hope.
Shares made a full roundabout from trough to peak and back to trough again, where they were able to find some major support. The $47.50/$48 level was the original double bottom that started the rally years ago, and now, when re-tested, it held again.
The risk/reward set-up appears to favor the bulls, barring another epic post-earnings drawdown. If shares sell off, the $47.50 level should get tested and could be a good entry point. However, the path to least resistance looks higher from this level. A mean reversion back to its long-term downtrend around the declining 200-day simple moving average would be good for a 23% gain.
Overall shares continue to act rather soggy, but one little quarter could spice things up and lead to a quick and satisfying return.
Restoration Hardware (RH)
Restoration Hardware has become one of the most volatile stocks after earnings over the last year-and-a-half and is one to watch with the report on Wednesday afternoon. Shares have moved an average of +/- 17% over the last six reports with gains of 17% and 25.5% over the last two.
Since last December’s 17% jump after results, the stock has declined as much as 50% from its recent highs. One major factor is the slowdown in the housing market, influenced by rising interest rates, which has dampened demand for home furnishings.
Technically, shares reached a major support level going back four years and held. It was the fourth time in four years that shares moved towards that $210 level and held. Clearly, we have a major level of interest to watch from a risk/reward set-up.
Shares hit extreme oversold levels in its relative strength index (RSI) in early March and have finally bounced. The rally back from oversold levels and a hold of key support should favor the bulls for now.
If you were to trade this into Wednesday afternoon’s earnings, you must watch that support level carefully. It has held time and again, and this would be a great area to dip into the stock with a stop-loss for protection just below support to minimize losses. Any positive reaction could see a fast snapback rally towards the 200-day moving average, which sits 35% above current levels. A simple mean reversion could equate to a nice return, while the stock remains in its longer-term downtrend.
ConAgra (CAG)
ConAgra, the parent company of Duncan Hines, Birds Eye, and Slim Jim, has struggled after earnings, as it has fallen five of the last six times it has reported.
Technically, shares sit in the middle of a range between its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The consumer staple has held up relatively well compared to the overall market and has only declined -4.5% year-to-date. It pays a 5.3% dividend and is considered a safer haven in these turbulent times.
The $24.50/$25 level has acted as solid support and could be a good entry point given current market uncertainty. However, the upside has overhead resistance at the 200-day moving average and the $27.50/$28 level.
Overall, this may be a nice place to hide out during turbulent times, but the overall risk/reward is marginal, at best. It may be more rewarding to eat their products than to trade the stock.