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S&P 500 Rises from Bearish to Neutral, But Will It Last?

The S&P 500 index managed to log one of its strongest weeks in 2025. Short-term breadth conditions have improved, and the crucial 5500 level has now been broken to the upside. Are we in the later stages of a countertrend rally, or just in the early innings of a broader recovery for stocks?

Let’s review three key charts together and evaluate the evidence.

Trendline Break Suggests Further Short-Term Strength

My daily chart of the S&P 500 has featured a thick pink trendline since March, when a lower peak around 5800 provided a perfect opportunity to define the downtrend phase. With the quick reversal off the early April low around 4850, the SPX has finally broken back above this trendline.

To be clear, after a breakout of this magnitude, I’m always looking for confirmation from the following day. Will additional buyers come in to push this chart even further to the upside? Assuming that’s the case, then I’m immediately drawn to a confluence of resistance in the 5750-5850 range. The 200-day moving average is currently sitting right around the late March peak, and both of those levels line up well with a price gap back in November 2024.

If the S&P 500 can finally break above that resistance range, I would expect much further upside for risk assets.

Breadth Conditions Confirm Short-Term Market Strength

One of the biggest improvements I’ve seen coming out of the early April low is the upgrade in short-term breadth conditions. The McClellan Oscillator has broken back above the zero level, most days this week saw more advancers than decliners, and the Bullish Percent Index has definitely improved.

In the bottom panel, we can see that the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index has risen from a low just above 10% at the April low to finish this week at 64%. That confirms that over half of the S&P 500 members generated a point & figure buy signal in the month of April!

But the middle panel shows the real challenge here, in that long-term measures of breadth are still clearly in the bearish range. Just 35% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, similar to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. It’s only if this indicator can push above the 50% level that the S&P 500 could stand a real chance of sustainable gains above 5750.

The Stoplight Technique Lays Out a Clear Playbook

I love to overlay a “stoplight” visualization on a chart like this, helping me clarify how I’ll think about risk depending on where the S&P 500 sits at any given point.

I would argue that a confirmed break above resistance at 5500 brings the S&P 500 chart into the “neutral” bucket. In this way, we’re respecting the fact that a rally from 4850 to 5500 is a fairly impressive feat, but also acknowledging that the SPX remains below its most important long-term trend barometer, the 200-day moving average.

If we see further gains in the weeks to come, the SPX may indeed push into the bullish range, which for me would mean a push above 5750-5800. In that scenario, the S&P 500 would be clear of its 200-day moving average, and I would feel much more comfortable adding risk to the portfolio. Until and unless we see that upside follow-through, though, I’ll remain comfortably defensive.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Five killed, more than 700 people injured after massive explosion in Iranian port

Five people have been killed and more than 700 injured in a huge explosion at the port of Bandar Abbas in southwestern Iran, according to official Iranian media.

The head of the Iranian emergency services said four people had died in the blast. A spokesperson for the emergency services earlier said 516 had been injured.

A video distributed by the Mehr news agency showed surveillance footage of the moment of the explosion, which appears to have occurred in a warehouse at the port. Other footage showed helicopters dropping water at the site of the fire ignited by the explosion.

Debris was spread over a wide area and many buildings at the port complex were badly damaged, according to state media. Windows within a radius of several kilometers were shattered, they said.

Some reports said people were trapped in the wreckage of a building that was reduced to rubble.

The region’s governor, Mohammad Ashouri Taziani, said injured people were being transferred to Bandar Abbas medical centers and the fire had been contained. The port has been closed and maritime operations suspended, according to state media.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has ordered an investigation into the causes of the incident. He wrote on X that the interior minister had been sent to the region to “examine the dimensions of the accident.”

State broadcaster IRIB said the explosion took place in the chemical and sulfur area of the port.

A government spokeswoman, Fatemeh Mohajerani, said it would take some time to establish the cause of the explosion – “but so far what has been determined is that containers were stored in a corner of the port that likely contained chemicals which exploded. But until the fire is extinguished, it’s hard to ascertain the cause.”

Shahid Rajaee is a large facility for container shipments, covering 2,400 hectares (around 5,900 acres). It handles 70 million tons of cargo annually, including oil and general shipping. It has nearly 500,000 square meters (5.4 million square feet) of warehouses and 35 shipping berths.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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Trump, Julian Assange and 250,000 others. Who was at Pope Francis’ funeral?

The funeral of Pope Francis gave Catholics across the globe the chance to bid farewell to a beloved pontiff – and for world leaders to rub shoulders at a fraught time for international diplomacy.

More than 250,000 people packed into St. Peter’s Square for Saturday’s service, the Vatican said, with members of the public there to mourn along with 55 heads of state.

The day’s most extraordinary meeting came just minutes before the service began. Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky held what American and Ukrainian officials described as a “productive” discussion in St. Peter’s Basilica, as Francis’ coffin was about to be brought into the square.

So, what was said, who met who, and where did everyone sit?

What was the seating plan?

St. Peter’s Square was split into quarters. Dignitaries, cardinals and bishops were at the front, nearest the basilica, while clergy and the general public were a little further back. The coffin was placed in front of the central altar.

Behind the seated sections, thousands more had packed into the square, standing for more than two hours in the Italian heat.

In the dignitaries’ section, politicians sat in alphabetical order in French, the traditional language of diplomacy.

This meant that Trump – president of “États-Unis d’Amerique” – sat between the presidents of Finland and Estonia, two nations that share borders with Russia, and which will be especially wary of a reduced US military footprint in Europe.

Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, played a round of golf with Trump in March during an unofficial trip to Florida. Trump said Stubb was a “very good player.” The Finnish presidency said the pair discussed European security, including Ukraine.

During Saturday’s “Sign of Peace,” a rite where members of the congregation shake hands with their neighbors and say “peace be with you,” Trump was seen shaking hands with several world leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron.

The only dignitaries not sat in alphabetical order were those from Italy – the host nation – and Argentina – Francis’ birthplace. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Argentinian President Javier Milei were sat near the front, with a cluster of other officials.

What happened at the Trump-Zelensky meeting?

In what was their first meeting since the explosive Oval Office meeting in February, Trump and Zelensky huddled in close discussion without aides in the ornate surroundings of St. Peter’s Basilica, shortly before the service began.

Both the White House and Ukrainian presidency said the talk lasted around 15 minutes, describing it as positive. Zelensky said the meeting was “symbolic,” with the “potential to become historic, if we achieve joint results.” The crowd in the square broke into applause when Zelensky stepped into the square.

“We discussed a lot one on one. Hoping for results on everything we covered. Protecting lives of our people. Full and unconditional ceasefire. Reliable and lasting peace that will prevent another war from breaking out,” Zelensky wrote on X.

The US president and First Lady Melania Trump left Rome swiftly after the service, meaning the two leaders did not hold further discussions. Zelensky later met with Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The four leaders were pictured together in the basilica, after Trump and Zelensky’s one-to-one.

Who else was there?

Britain’s Prince William was among a string of royals in Saturday’s crowd. William, next in line to the British throne, sat next to Olaf Scholz, the outgoing chancellor of Germany. Spain’s King Felipe and Queen Letizia, as well as Queen Mary of Denmark, were also in attendance.

Polish President Andrzej Duda and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban were among several other European leaders in attendance. The South American leaders there included Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – who had a close relationship with Francis – and Ecuador’s recently re-elected president Daniel Noboa.

The heads of several supranational institutions were also there, including Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus – head of the World Health Organization, from which Trump withdrew the US in January – and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Julian Assange also made what was a rare public appearance since his release from Britain’s Belmarsh prison last year. The Wikileaks founder was seen with his wife, Stella, and their two children, at the Vatican.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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Russia says ‘Ukrainian special services agent’ detained in connection with car blast that killed a Russian general

Russian authorities say they have detained a man described as a “Ukrainian special services agent” in connection with a car explosion that killed Russian General Yaroslav Moskalik on Friday.

The suspect allegedly purchased the car that exploded in Balashikha, less than 20 miles east of Moscow, according to TASS citing Russia’s Federal Security Service. The suspect’s nationality is unclear; according to the FSB, he has a residence permit in Ukraine.

The FSB also accused him of planting an explosive device in the car, but said that it was detonated from Ukraine. Video published by TASS on Saturday appeared to show charred electronics and parts of the car. Russia’s Investigative Committee had previously said the blast was caused by an improvised explosive device packed with shrapnel.

Photos released by Russian authorities appear to show the suspect driving a dark green Volkswagen with license plates that match those purportedly found at the site of the blast.

TASS video also showed the man being put into a van, and included footage of him apparently in custody describing his alleged recruitment by Ukraine’s special services. It’s unclear if he was under duress during the confession.

Moskalik was killed on the same day US special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin to discuss efforts to end Russia’s war on Ukraine.

After the three-hour meeting, US President Donald Trump initially voiced optimism that both sides were “very close to a deal.”

But the next day, Trump questioned whether Putin wants a peace deal shortly after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Vatican for Pope Francis’ funeral.

In a Truth Social post sent as he returned from Rome after the meeting, Trump raised the prospect of applying new sanctions on Russia after its assault on Kyiv last week.

“There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days,” Trump wrote. “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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The Pope Francis I knew: Reflections from CNN’s Vatican correspondent

Pope Francis had a great sense of humor. When I met him once at the back of the papal plane, I cracked a joke with him that was a little bit close to the line. Luckily, he roared with laughter and told me “Sei cattivo!” (“You’re naughty!”). Every day, he used to say, he prayed the words of St. Thomas More: “Lord, give me a sense of humor.”

Francis took what he did seriously. But he never took himself too seriously.

One thing that struck me about him was his intuition and pastoral instincts. Whatever the situation, he always seemed to find the right words to say. When I met him with my family one time, my youngest child was crying.

“Whenever they see a man in white, they think I’m a doctor and about to give them some medicine!” he joked.

His ability to read people was also vital in his leadership. When he met bishops, he would get them into a circle and ask which one wanted to start speaking. It allowed him to understand the dynamics of a group, which helped him make appointments and decisions in the future.

Francis liked to make himself accessible. He would say his door was always open – but that same door also had a sign on it that read “no whining.”

There was never a dull moment covering his pontificate. As pope, he gave more media interviews than anyone else, but he never had a spokesperson or media advisers. Predicting his next move was notoriously difficult, and when it came to appointing new cardinals, no one knew in advance who he’d be choosing or when. New cardinals would talk about their phones blowing up in the middle of a Mass as people tried to contact them to tell them the news.

Francis wasn’t naïve, however. He was a politically savvy pope, very decisive and often stubborn. He wanted to stay true to himself and not become scripted. My enduring memory is of a very human pope who was full of surprises. He leaves big shoes to fill.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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‘Number of people killed’ after car drives into crowd at Vancouver Filipino festival

Fatalities have been confirmed after a car plowed into a crowd at a street festival celebrating Filipino heritage in Vancouver on Saturday night, according to officials in the Canadian city.

“A number of people have been killed and multiple others are injured after a driver drove into a crowd at a street festival,” the Vancouver Police Department wrote in a statement on X.

The driver of the vehicle is in custody, according to police.

Prime Minister Mark Carney mourned the dead and wounded, calling the ramming “horrific” in a statement on X.

“I offer my deepest condolences to the loved ones of those killed and injured, to the Filipino Canadian community, and to everyone in Vancouver. We are all mourning with you,” he wrote.

Vancouver’s mayor also offered condolences.

“I am shocked and deeply saddened by the horrific incident at today’s Lapu Lapu Day event,” Ken Sim wrote on X.

“Our thoughts are with all those affected and with Vancouver’s Filipino community during this incredibly difficult time.”

Sim said he would provide more information on the incident.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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S&P 500 Rises from Bearish to Neutral, But Will It Last?

The S&P 500 index managed to log one of its strongest weeks in 2025. Short-term breadth conditions have improved, and the crucial 5500 level has now been broken to the upside. Are we in the later stages of a countertrend rally, or just in the early innings of a broader recovery for stocks?

Let’s review three key charts together and evaluate the evidence.

Trendline Break Suggests Further Short-Term Strength

My daily chart of the S&P 500 has featured a thick pink trendline since March, when a lower peak around 5800 provided a perfect opportunity to define the downtrend phase. With the quick reversal off the early April low around 4850, the SPX has finally broken back above this trendline.

To be clear, after a breakout of this magnitude, I’m always looking for confirmation from the following day. Will additional buyers come in to push this chart even further to the upside? Assuming that’s the case, then I’m immediately drawn to a confluence of resistance in the 5750-5850 range. The 200-day moving average is currently sitting right around the late March peak, and both of those levels line up well with a price gap back in November 2024.

If the S&P 500 can finally break above that resistance range, I would expect much further upside for risk assets.

Breadth Conditions Confirm Short-Term Market Strength

One of the biggest improvements I’ve seen coming out of the early April low is the upgrade in short-term breadth conditions. The McClellan Oscillator has broken back above the zero level, most days this week saw more advancers than decliners, and the Bullish Percent Index has definitely improved.

In the bottom panel, we can see that the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index has risen from a low just above 10% at the April low to finish this week at 64%. That confirms that over half of the S&P 500 members generated a point & figure buy signal in the month of April!

But the middle panel shows the real challenge here, in that long-term measures of breadth are still clearly in the bearish range. Just 35% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, similar to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. It’s only if this indicator can push above the 50% level that the S&P 500 could stand a real chance of sustainable gains above 5750.

The Stoplight Technique Lays Out a Clear Playbook

I love to overlay a “stoplight” visualization on a chart like this, helping me clarify how I’ll think about risk depending on where the S&P 500 sits at any given point.

I would argue that a confirmed break above resistance at 5500 brings the S&P 500 chart into the “neutral” bucket. In this way, we’re respecting the fact that a rally from 4850 to 5500 is a fairly impressive feat, but also acknowledging that the SPX remains below its most important long-term trend barometer, the 200-day moving average.

If we see further gains in the weeks to come, the SPX may indeed push into the bullish range, which for me would mean a push above 5750-5800. In that scenario, the S&P 500 would be clear of its 200-day moving average, and I would feel much more comfortable adding risk to the portfolio. Until and unless we see that upside follow-through, though, I’ll remain comfortably defensive.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Stocks

Top Stock Areas After the Rally: What Smart Money Is Buying

In this video, after last week’s sharp market rally, Mary Ellen breaks down where the markets stand now, which leading sectors are showing the most strength, and how to recognize if your stocks are entering a new uptrend. Get expert insights on market leadership, sector rotation, and key signals to watch as momentum builds in specific areas of the market. This is a must-watch for investors looking to stay on top of current stock trends and spot early breakout opportunities.

This video originally premiered April 25, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

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Stocks

Week Ahead: RRG Indicates Sector Shifts; NIFTY Deals With These Crucial Levels

Following a strong move the week before, the markets took on a more consolidatory look over the past five sessions. Following ranged moves, the Nifty closed the week on just a modestly positive note. From a technical standpoint, the Nifty tested a few important levels on both daily and weekly charts. However, the trading range narrowed. The Index oscillated in a 517.60-point range over the past week. The volatility surged again; the India VIX spiked 10.93% to 17.16. The headline index went on to close with a modest weekly gain of 187.70 points (+0.79%).

The coming week is shortened, with Thursday being a trading holiday due to Maharashtra Day. We could write about more than one thing that the markets could be worried about over the coming days. It could be the lowered growth forecasts by the IMF that include India and other economies; it could also be the heightened possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. However, all that said, the markets are also at a crucial technical juncture. The Nifty has closed just at the 200-DMA placed at 24050. Besides this, Index has also defended the 50-week MA at 23925. This makes the 23,900-24,050 zone a crucial support area for the Nifty. The consolidation is imminent as the Nifty has rebounded over 11% from its April 07 lows, and minor corrective retracements cannot be ruled out. However, if 23900 is breached, the markets may see some extended retracements.

The weekly RSI is at 55.46; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and stays above its signal line. A candle resembling a Shooting Star has emerged, increasing the likelihood of consolidation. Importantly, any candle formation should not be traded in isolation and must be used in conjunction with the overall technical setup.

The pattern analysis shows that the Nifty has defended the 50-week MA placed at 23925. The Index has also tested a rising trendline resistance; it violated this trendline support on its way down, and now this is expected to act as resistance. Overall, the zone of 24050-23900 is a crucial support zone for Nifty. If the level of 23900 is violated, it can lead to incremental weakness.

Overall, the technical structure of the market suggests that it is time for one to focus more on protecting gains at higher levels. While there could be some reactions by the markets due to external factors, the underlying buoyancy stays intact. The only thing to be cautious about is the natural corrective retracements that the market may experience following the steep upward move that has taken place. Investors must keep fresh purchases should be kept in low-beta stocks that have strong relative strength. With sector rotation visible, a cautious outlook is advised for the day.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty PSU Bank Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Consumption, Commodities, Financial Services, Infrastructure, Metal, and Nifty Bank Indices are also inside the leading quadrant. While the weakening of Relative Momentum is seen in the Metal and Financial Services Index, they are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty Services Sector Index has rolled inside the weakening quadrant.

The Midcap 100 and the Realty Index are showing strong improvement in their Relative Momentum while staying inside the lagging quadrant. The IT and the Auto Index continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant.

The Media Index has rolled inside the Improving quadrant, indicating a likely beginning of its phase of relative outperformance. The Nifty PSE, Energy, and FMCG Indices are also inside the improving quadrant.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

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Zweig Breadth Thrust Dominates the Headlines – But What about an Exit Strategy?

The Zweig Breadth Thrust for the S&P 1500 triggered on Thursday as stocks surged last week. In poker terms, this thrust signals an abrupt participation shift as stocks move from folding to all-in within ten days. A bullish thrust signal is only part of the puzzle. How do we know when this signal fails? Today’s report will look at the ZBT signal in the S&P 1500 and offer an exit strategy. Stick around to the end for an offer to access a fully quantified strategy based on the Zweig Breadth Thrust.

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TrendInvestorPro subscribers have access to three timely reports. The first report/video explains the mechanics of the original NYSE-based Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator and then shows a modern version using S&P 1500 Advance-Decline Percent. Second, we also presented a trading strategy using ZBT signals for entry and another indicator for exits. The third report/video covers the setups and thrust signals for the percent above SMA indicators. Some of these indicators also triggered this week, but not all. Click here to take a trial and get full access.

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ZBT Triggers for S&P 1500, but Not S&P 500

The first chart shows the Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator triggering bullish as it moved from below -20% to above +23% within ten trading days (blue line). This thrust signal means S&P 1500 advance-decline breadth became oversold with strong selling pressure and then recovered in dramatic fashion with a surge in upside participation. Moreover, this shift occurred within a 10 day window. This reversal of fortune was both sudden and sharp.

Note that the Zweig Breadth Thrust triggered an epic signal in November 2023, and we were on it. See this report (11-November-2023) for details on the original NYSE-based Zweig Breadth Thrust. See this report (18-November-2023) for details on using S&P 1500 Advance-Decline Percent to create a Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator.  

S&P 500 ZBT Falls Short

The ZBT indicator for the S&P 500 did not trigger. The indicator was below -20% on April 8th and did not make it back above +23% within the 10 day window. In fact, the indicator did not make it back above +23% this week. This shows less upside participation within the S&P 500, and more upside participation within the S&P 1500. Small and mid cap breadth outperformed large-cap breadth this week.

Where’s the Exit?

The Zweig Breadth Thrust is only used for bullish signals, which means chartists must find another indicator to signal a failed thrust. As its name implies, a thrust is a strong upward move that is powerful enough to foreshadow an extended advance. The Zweig Breadth Thrust in November 2023 provides a classic example as SPY continued higher, never looking back. The blue line shows when both the S&P 1500 and S&P 500 ZBT indicators triggered in early November.

Chartists looking for an exit strategy can consider prior support levels based on reaction lows (troughs). The horizontal blue lines show these support levels, starting with the late October 2023 low. SPY forged a reaction low in January 2025, hit a new high in February and then broke support to trigger an exit. Current support levels are based on the April lows.

Chartists looking for a more dynamic approach can consider a trend-following indicator, which we will explore next (subscribers). This strategy is fully disclosed and quantified with backtest results. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access! 

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