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Israel launched a wave of unprecedented strikes on Iran shortly before sunrise Friday morning, hitting key sites in the nation’s nuclear program as well as residential areas in upscale neighborhoods of Tehran and killing some of the country’s highest-ranking military leaders.

Israel’s military said it used 200 fighter jets in the operation, called “Rising Lion.” Based on a review of strike targets, the attack had several prongs: Heavy strikes against at least one of Iran’s uranium enrichment sites as well as its stockpiles of ballistic missiles, and more targeted strikes in Tehran to decapitate the regime’s military leadership. It aimed to halt what Israel said was Tehran’s rapid progress in developing nuclear weapons.

The Israeli operation came after years of threats and days of heightened speculation.

Earlier in the week, the US had made efforts to withdraw non-essential personnel from locations around the Middle East, with one official citing “developing tension” in the region. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump told reporters in the White House that he did not want Israel to target Iran while talks to reach a new agreement to limit Iranian nuclear enrichment were ongoing.

In retaliation, Iran launched over 100 drones toward Israeli territory, Israel’s military said, and then a barrage of ballistic missiles.

Here’s what we know about how Israel’s attack unfolded, minute by minute. All times are local to Iran.

Pre-dawn: First strikes

Seven miles west of those buildings – still in the north of the city – another video showed damage from a strike on the upscale Chamran Town neighborhood. An entire wall had been stripped off one of the buildings, with people seen climbing through the rubble inside.

One strike hit centrally near Laleh Park, the site of protests over the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who died after Iran’s morality police detained her for allegedly not wearing her headscarf properly.

Beyond the capital, a video showed a strike on the Piranshahr military base in western Iran, some 350 miles (about 560 kilometers) away from Tehran. The video showed the dark night sky being lit up by a series of rapid explosions, with smoke rising in the distance.

The Natanz nuclear facility includes two large underground halls believed to hold centrifuges for enriching uranium, according to a 2003 report from the Institute for Science and International Security, which includes satellite imagery of the site under construction in 2002. Based on that imagery, the latest attacks do not appear to have hit the underground buildings, but the full extent of the damage is not yet known.

Iran’s atomic energy agency said its primary nuclear enrichment facility “did not encounter serious damage” and there were “no radiation leaks that would cause concern to the people” after Israel attacked it. The spokesperson of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Behrouz Kamalvandi, said on Iranian state media that the damage was on the ground level away from the underground facility at the plant.

Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a statement that “radiation levels outside the Natanz facility remained unchanged” but added that there was “radioactive contamination present inside the facility,” which “can be managed with appropriate protective measures.”

4:14 a.m.: IDF speaks

Soon after the first explosions rocked Tehran, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced it had launched preemptive strikes against Iran’s nuclear program.

It said it used jets to strike “dozens of military targets, including nuclear targets in different areas of Iran.”

The statement came at 3:44 a.m. in Israel, which is 30 minutes behind Iran’s time zone.

4:35 a.m.: Rubio distances US

Within minutes, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that the US was “not involved” in Israel’s strikes and that Israel’s actions were “unilateral.”

“Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel,” Rubio said in a statement on X, anticipating a potential Iranian response.

Sunrise: Strikes continue

Just one mile west of the strikes on Chamran Town, daylight video showed the aftermath of a strike on Tehran’s Chizar neighborhood. A huge hole had been blown in the top two floors of a building, with twisted iron bars hanging from the concrete structure.

A 17-year-old Iranian, who asked to remain anonymous, said people were “screaming” in the streets. “I didn’t know what was happening. It was really scary,” the teenager said.

5:17 a.m.: Netanyahu announces Operation ‘Rising Lion’

As evidence of Israel’s strikes began to pour in, Netanyahu gave a televised address, saying that Israel had acted to “roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival.” He said the operation would continue for as long as it takes “to remove these threats.”

Netanyahu claimed Iran had produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine nuclear weapons. In a report sent to member states May 31, the IAEA also judged that Iran had enough uranium enriched to 60% purity, near weapons-grade, potentially to make nine nuclear weapons.

“Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. It could be a year. It could be within a few months,” Netanyahu said. “This is a clear and present danger to Israel’s survival.”

The prime minister claimed Israel had struck Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz, which was corroborated by video of the site.

Past 6 a.m.

As the sun rose, the full scope of Israel’s attack became clearer. Videos published after 6 a.m. showed the aftermath of a strike on a military base and a cargo terminal in the western Kermanshah region, which borders Iraq, over 250 miles from Tehran and 167 miles from Baghdad.

6:26 a.m.: IAEA ‘concerned’

After Netanyahu claimed Israel had targeted the nuclear facility at Natanz, the UN nuclear watchdog confirmed that Natanz had been hit.

“The IAEA is closely monitoring the deeply concerning situation in Iran,” it said.

The agency said it was in contact with Iranian authorities regarding radiation levels in the area. In a later statement, it said it had not observed an increase in radiation.

8:35 a.m.: IDF announces killings

The Israeli military said it had killed three of the most senior men in Iran’s military and its nuclear program.

Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, head of the secretive Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was the highest-profile of those killed. In its initial statement, Israel also said it killed Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, and Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, leader of Iran’s emergency command.

Later, the IDF said it had killed Ali Shamkhani, a close aide to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC’s air force.

Many of the strikes on Tehran appear to have been targeting these senior officials. Last year, Israel demonstrated its ability to assassinate its adversaries in highly targeted attacks on Iranian soil. In July 2024, it killed Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas – the Iran-backed militia in Gaza – by remotely detonating a bomb that had been hidden in his room in Tehran.

While Friday’s strikes appeared extremely targeted, there have been reports of civilian casualties.

8:48 a.m.: Iran responds

The IDF said that Iran had launched more than 100 drones towards Israeli territory, and that Israel’s air defenses were preparing to intercept them.

“We’re expecting difficult hours,” it said.

Following previous Israeli attacks against Iran and its proxies in the region, Tehran fired back with huge salvos of ballistic missiles.

The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington, DC, said it was “possible that Israel somehow disrupted Iran’s response by targeting Iran’s ballistic missile launch sites and stockpiles.”

Around midday

Early afternoon, Iranian media reported that Israel had launched a fresh strike on the northwestern city of Tabriz. Tamsin news agency said the Tabriz Airport had come under “heavy Israeli attack.”

12:26 p.m.: Trump posts

After learning the extent of Israel’s attack, Trump urged Iran’s leaders to agree to a new nuclear deal “before there is nothing left” of their country.

Trump said he had given Iran “chance after chance” to make a deal. “JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” he wrote on Truth Social, his social media platform.

Under a 2015 nuclear deal struck by President Barack Obama, Iran agreed to drastically limit its number of centrifuges and cap uranium enrichment at levels far below those required to make weapons, in exchange for sanctions relief.

But during his first term as president in 2018, Trump withdrew from the deal, saying the “rotten structure” of the agreement was not enough to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb. He ramped up sanctions on Iran and threatened to sanction any country that helped the regime obtain nuclear weapons.

In his second term, Trump has revived efforts to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran.

Just hours before Israel’s attack, the president on Thursday cautioned Israel against launching a strike while talks are ongoing. US officials have held several rounds of high-stakes nuclear talks with Iran in recent weeks, demanding that Tehran stop all uranium enrichment activity.

Iran has long claimed that its nuclear program is peaceful. It has said it wants to keep enriching uranium for civilian purposes, like building a nuclear reactor, and not for weapons.

“Zero nuclear weapons = we DO have a deal. Zero enrichment = we do NOT have a deal,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an X post last month, setting out Tehran’s red lines in the talks.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Before Israel launched an unprecedented wave of strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and top military leaders this week, its spies were already on the ground in enemy territory.

Israeli intelligence agency Mossad had smuggled weapons into Iran ahead of the strikes, according to Israeli security officials, and would use the weapons to target Iran’s defense from within.

The officials said Israel established a base for launching explosive drones inside Iran, and the drones were later used to target missile launchers near Tehran. Precision weapons were also smuggled in and used to target surface-to-air missile systems, clearing the way for Israel’s Air Force to carry out more than 100 strikes with upward of 200 aircraft in the early hours of Friday local time.

The plan to disable Iranian defenses seems to have been effective; Israel said all of its aircraft returned safely from the first waves of strikes, appearing to show Israeli air superiority over parts of a country hundreds of miles away.

Intelligence gathered by the Mossad in Iran also gave Israel’s air force the ability to target senior Iranian commanders and scientists.

In an incredibly rare move, the Mossad released video from some of its operations, showing drones attacking what appear to be unsuspecting missile launchers.

It is the latest operation to show how deeply Israel’s intelligence services, including the Mossad, have penetrated some of Iran’s most closely guarded secrets. The operations have made the Mossad appear a nearly unstoppable force in Iran, capable of hitting at some of its highest-ranking officials and most sensitive sites.

“Mossad has treated Iran like its playground for years now,” said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and curator of the Iranist newsletter.

“From assassinating top nuclear scientists to sabotaging Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel has proved time and time again that it has always had the upper hand in this shadow war that has now been playing out in the open since the first tit-for-tat strikes in April 2024.”

An Israeli security source said the latest operation required commando forces operating deep within Tehran and across the country while avoiding detection from Iran’s security and intelligence agencies. The source said Mossad teams targeted air defense missiles, ballistic missiles, and missile launchers as the attack from the Israeli Air Force began.

A second Israeli security source said the Mossad operations were years in the making, involving both intelligence-gathering efforts and the deployment of Mossad commandos deep behind enemy lines.

Some of the Mossad commando forces operated in the Iranian capital itself, according to the security source.

In addition to the drone base established by the Mossad long before Wednesday’s attack, Mossad commandos deployed “precision-guided weapons systems” near Iranian missile air defense systems, which were activated at the same time as the Israeli air force began striking its targets. A second operation deployed sophisticated vehicle-mounted weaponry to target other Iranian defense systems.

The Mossad operation also involved assassinations of top Iranian officials.

Israel has shown – flaunted even – the Mossad’s ability to operate with near impunity in Iran in the past.

Starting in the early-2010s, Iran accused Israel of carrying out a campaign of assassinations against the country’s nuclear scientists. Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon tacitly acknowledged the targeted killings when he said in 2015 that Israel cannot be held responsible “for the life expectancy of Iran’s nuclear scientists.”

From 2007 to 2012 Israel allegedly carried out five covert assassinations, nearly all in Tehran, through remote-controlled bombings, or remote-controlled machine guns. Only one of Iran’s key nuclear scientists survived the assassination attempt, Fereydoon Abbasi.

Just last month, Abbasi told Iranian state media that any attack on production sites would have little impact on the timeline of developing a bomb, saying, “our capabilities are spread all over the country. If they target production sites, it will be inconsequential to our timetable, because our nuclear materials are not stored above ground for them to hit.”

Abbasi was one of the scientists killed in Israel’s early morning attack in Tehran.

The Mossad’s actions soon became much more public.

In early-2018, Israel stole Iran’s nuclear archive from Tehran, displaying the intelligence coup in a live broadcast from Jerusalem. Speaking in English, Netanyahu showed off the archive, including what he said were copies of 55,000 pages of Iranian nuclear information and a display of discs he said were 55,000 files.

Iran tried to dismiss Netanyahu’s comments as “childish” and “laughable,” but the plundering of the archive showed the confidence Israel had in the Mossad’s ability to function in Tehran. The operation, which would have required extensive planning and an intimate knowledge of the archive’s location and security, pushed the first Trump administration to withdraw from the original nuclear agreement with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Israel wasn’t done yet.

In November 2020, Israel assassinated Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s chief nuclear scientist, while he was in a bulletproof car traveling with his wife. Fakhrizadeh’s car was moving in a convoy with three security vehicles when he came under fire. Iranian state media said a remote-controlled machine gun opened fire on the nuclear scientist, who had been a long-time target for Israel.

The operation, which Israel has not publicly acknowledged, was carried out with remarkable precision, and it displayed a deep knowledge of Fakhrizadeh’s pattern of life.

And yet despite its repeated inability to stop the Mossad, Iran has proven incapable of improving.

Ram Ben Barak, the former deputy director of the Mossad, said the organization’s continued success is “due to a very, very disliked regime, even hated by most of the public, so this allows for intelligence penetration on one hand, and on the other, you have the sophistication and professionalism of the Israeli intelligence personnel.”

After the start of the war in Gaza, Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran. A source familiar with the matter said Israel planted an explosive device in a guest house where Haniyeh was known to stay. The bomb was concealed in the room for two months before the targeted killing and detonated remotely once Haniyeh was in the room.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Former England football captain David Beckham, Oscar-winning actor Gary Oldman and The Who front man Roger Daltrey are among the prominent figures awarded knighthoods in this year’s King’s Birthday Honours list.

Beckham, 50, was recognized for his services to sport and charity. A global soccer icon and former Manchester United midfielder, Beckham has represented England 115 times and clinched league titles across four countries.

He was appointed an officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in 2003 and has since expanded his influence beyond the pitch. He has worked as an ambassador for the worldwide children’s charity UNICEF since 2005 and has been an ambassador for the King’s Foundation since last year.

As a result of his knighthood, his wife, fashion designer and former Spice Girl Victoria Beckham, will now be formally styled Lady Beckham.

Co-founder and lead singer of legendary British rock band The Who, Daltrey, 81, was honored for his services to charity. Alongside his storied musical career, Daltrey has served as a patron of the Teenage Cancer Trust since 2000, spearheading its annual concert series at London’s Royal Albert Hall for more than two decades.

The Who, formed in London in 1964, was inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 1990. Of the band’s four founding members, only Daltrey and guitarist Pete Townshend are still alive.

Oldman, 67, who played Harry Potter’s godfather Sirius Black in several of the movies in the franchise, was awarded a knighthood for services to drama. In 2018, the Hollywood star won an Oscar for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in the film “Darkest Hour.”

Most honors in the UK are awarded twice a year – on the monarch’s official birthday in June, and in the New Year. The list is compiled by the government and signed off by King Charles, with nominations reviewed by independent panels across different sectors.

The most recent New Year Honours list saw knighthoods conferred on actor Stephen Fry, former England soccer manager Gareth Southgate and London mayor Sadiq Khan.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

While the S&P 500 ($SPX) logged a negative reversal on Wednesday, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX), Wall Street’s fear gauge, logged a positive reversal. This is pretty typical: when the S&P 500 falls, the VIX rises.

Here’s what makes it interesting: the VIX has quietly crept up in three of the last four days. Before the midday pivot, the VIX hit its lowest level since February 21, 2025. And while that wasn’t the low in February, it was close. As the chart below depicts, back then, the VIX’s intraday low occurred on February 14, 2025, a few days before the SPX topped on February 19.

It wasn’t a screaming sell signal for equities. The S&P 500 was set to follow through on the big cup-with-handle pattern breakout, even though two straight bullish patterns failed in December and January.

Ultimately, the combination of the S&P 500 failing to get much higher than 6,100 and the VIX bouncing near support set the stage for the market rolling over. It was, of course, news-induced, but the market’s character had been changing since December, when breadth first took a major hit.

So, with the VIX closer to that same support zone now than it has been at any time the last few months and the S&P 500 back above 6,000, the pendulum has swung back near the extreme levels where the fireworks began. But there are two major differences now vs. then.

Bullish Patterns Are Working

Bullish patterns weren’t holding up well in December, January, and February (and then again in March). But they are working now.

Let’s not take this for granted. The S&P 500 starts the day with three live bullish patterns, and the index already hit one upside objective (5,840).

Most importantly, the index has extended above the breakout zones of the two biggest ones by 5.4% and 9%, respectively (see charts below). This means it could endure a not-so-small drawdown, and the patterns (and their upside targets) would remain in place. The index had no such cushion in February.

Still No 1% Declines

Since April 21, the S&P 500 has logged just one 1% decline, which now spans 35 trading days. It had 20 over the prior 71 days since January 6, 2025. That’s a rate of 2.8% vs. 28%. We had literally 10 times more 1% declines from January to April 21.

We didn’t see too many 1% losses in the first few weeks of 2025 either (see chart below). But with the index continuously failing at resistance, it just couldn’t leverage the low-volatility environment like it did from late 2023 through late 2024. As described above, in the last two months, the S&P 500 has been capitalizing on breakouts on low two-way volatility.

So, could all of this completely flip again with a massively surprising “unknown unknown” headline? There’s always that risk. And we know about the big collection of sell signals out there (MACD and Demark).

All of this suggests a respite is due. Bulls and bears seem to agree about that. What they don’t agree upon is the severity of that next pullback. There’s no use in trying to predict how far or how damaging it will be, however. As long as the bullish patterns remain intact, the nascent uptrend has a chance to continue in the months to come.

Zooming In: ARKK’s Strong Run

Let’s take a closer look at one of the more popular growth-focused ETFs: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Despite finishing off its highs, ARKK logged its fourth straight gain yesterday and is now up eight of the last nine trading sessions. Over that time, it has fully leveraged the bull flag we mentioned two weeks ago. The target from that pattern is near $67.

ARKK also logged its third straight trading box breakout in the last few days. So, from a short-term pattern perspective, things have continued to work for the stock.

Indicator-wise, ARKK is now officially overbought for the first time since last December. Over the last year, here’s how the ETF has fared after first reaching overbought territory.

Last July, ARKK hit its summer top just a few days after becoming overbought. In November and December (while ARKK’s upswing continued through mid-February), the ETF pulled back to levels below where the relative strength index (RSI) first hit 70 over the ensuing days/weeks both times.

In other words, this is not the best trading setup for new short-term longs. We expect the risk-reward to improve after the next pullback.

ARKK is also approaching the upper threshold of its big two-year trading channel, which could slow things down soon.

The Bottom Line

The S&P 500 is rising slowly and steadily, volatility is still relatively low, and growth plays like ARKK are looking strong, although they may be due for a pullback in the near term. Keep an eye on the chart patterns that are forming and look for investment opportunities on pullbacks.


Three sectors stand out, with one sporting a recent breakout that argues for higher prices. Today’s report will highlight three criteria to define a leading uptrend. First, price should be above the rising 200-day SMA. Second, the price-relative should be above its rising 200-day SMA. And finally, leaders should trade at or near 52-week highs. Let’s compare the Utilities SPDR (XLU) to see how it stacks up.

The CandleGlance charts below show the top five sectors and SPY. I am ranking performance using Fast Stochastics (255,1). Stochastic values reflect the level of the close relative to the high-low range over the given period. 255 trading days is around 1 year. An ETF is at a 52-week high when the value is above 99 (XLK) and an ETF is near a new high with a value above 90 (XLU). The CandleGlance charts show XLK, XLI and XLU with values above 90, which means the are near new highs.

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TrendInvestorPro is following the breakout in XLU, the bull flag in GLD, a small wedge in AMLP, a breakout in XLP and more. We also covered trailing stop alternatives for the pennant breakouts in some key tech related ETFs. Take a trial and get three free bonus reports.

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Now let’s turn to price action. XLU is trading above its rising 200-day SMA. Thus, the long-term trend is up. XLU also broke falling channel resistance in early May. The pink lines show a falling channel that retraced around 61.8% of the July-December advance (23.6%). Both the pattern and the retracement amount are typical for corrections within a bigger uptrend. The early May breakout signals a continuation of the long-term uptrend and new highs are expected. The May lows mark first support at 78. A close below this level would warrant a re-evaluation.

And finally, let’s measure relative performance using the price-relative (XLU/RSP ratio). The lower window shows the price-relative in an uptrend for over a year and above its 200-day SMA since early March. This shows long-term relative strength. The pink trendlines show relative performance corrections when XLU underperformed for short periods. XLU is currently experiencing an underperformance correction because the broader market surge from early April to early June.

TrendInvestorPro is following the breakout in XLU, the bull flag in GLD, a small wedge in AMLP, a breakout in XLP and more. We also covered trailing stop alternatives for the pennant breakouts in some key tech related ETFs. Click here to learn more and gain immediate access.

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Catching a sector early as it rotates out of a slump is one of the more reliable ways to get ahead of an emerging trend. You just have to make sure the rotation has enough strength to follow through.

On Thursday morning, as the markets maintained a cautiously bullish tone, I checked the New Highs panel on the StockCharts Dashboard, scanning the 1-, 3-, 6-, and 9-month highs list. A clear theme emerged—biotech and healthcare stocks dominated the shorter-term highs.

Seeing strength in healthcare and biotech, I checked the Market Summary BPI panel to compare breadth across sectors. Healthcare posted a 63.93% reading—an early sign the sector may be turning higher.

Comparing the broader sector with the biotech industry, the Key Ratios – Offense vs. Defense panel showed that Biotech outperformed Healthcare by a modest 2.31% over the past three months. This panel compares the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), which represents the biotech sector, with the broader Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV).

Are Biotech and Healthcare Starting a Bullish Rotation?

So, are we seeing an early rotation of both industry and sector toward the upside, and could either be shaping up as an opportunity for investment? Let’s take a comparative look at both relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), our broad market stand-in.

Comparing XBI and XLV to SPY: Signs of Leadership?

FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS OF XBI, XLV, AND SPY. This is typical of what you’d see during an early-stage rotation.

This PerfCharts view shows a one-year snapshot of relative performance, with biotech lagging behind healthcare, and both trailing the SPY in negative territory. Yet XBI and XLV are showing signs of recovery, with XBI exhibiting a sharper angle of ascent.

Seasonal Strength in Healthcare and Biotech Stocks

Now here’s an interesting addition to the current analysis: what if we considered the industry and the sector from a seasonality perspective? The reason for this is that certain sectors and the industries within them tend to exhibit recurring patterns of strength or weakness during specific times of the year. If we’re seeing a potential turning point in either, could a seasonality lens offer additional insight or clarity to the analysis?

Biotech Seasonality: Strong Months for XBI

Let’s start with XBI, and notice how it’s now entering a cluster of seasonally-favorable months.

FIGURE 2. SEASONALITY CHART OF XBI. The industry is entering a cluster of seasonally strong months.

According to this 10-year seasonality chart, June, July, August, and November tend to be strong months for XBI, with positive closing rates well above 50% (see figures above each bar) and higher-than-average returns (see figures at the bottom of the bars). Among them, June and November stand out as XBI’s strongest seasonal months.

XLV Seasonality: November Still Reigns

FIGURE 3. SEASONALITY CHART OF XLV.  According to this, July is XLV’s second-strongest month after November.

XLV’s seasonal profile shares a similar pattern, with a few key differences. July emerges as XLV’s second-strongest month, boasting a close rate of 89% and an average return of 3.1%. Like XBI, November is XLV’s top month in terms of average return.

What this tells us is that the biotech industry and the broader healthcare sector have historically performed well during these periods (especially November), suggesting that seasonal strength could serve as a tailwind if the current rotation continues to build momentum.

Charting the Rotation: XBI Trend Structure Shows Some Clarity

Next, let’s take a look at their current price action, starting with a daily chart of XBI.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF XBI. Notice how the trend structure is well-defined by the Fibonacci retracement, providing clear measurements for you to gauge the subsequent directionality once the market decides which way XBI will go.

XBI’s price action shows it reversed at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level (November high to April low). Will the bears take control, or will XBI’s near-term reaction strengthen into an uptrend, eventually pushing XBI past the 61.8% retracement level, a threshold wherein bears may fold their positions and bulls increase theirs?

In light of the latter, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61 and rising, indicating room for upside, but only under the condition that the current bullish swing maintains its trajectory.

A few actionable tips. If you’re bullish on XBI and planning to add it to your portfolio, consider the following:

  • If XBI were to pull back deeper, watch to see if it bounces near the last recent swing low area at $76.
  • If XBI reverses to the upside, expect resistance at the 61.8% Fib retracement at around $91. Also, watch the yellow-shaded zone around $94, an area of concentrated trading activity which may also act as a strong resistance zone.

If XBI rotates in a bullish fashion, these key levels can help guide your analysis.

XLV Technical Setup: Strength, But Not Yet a Breakout

Next, shift over to a daily chart of XLV. You’ll notice it’s quite different despite also exhibiting a recovery.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF XLV. Unlike the previous example, XLV’s price action is more muddled.

XLV’s recovery doesn’t appear as convincing just yet, as it still needs to clear multiple swing highs and resistance levels clustered between $139 and $141 (highlighted in green). If it manages to break above this zone, the next resistance range—shaded in yellow—sits between $148 and $150. In short, the sector proxy faces several hurdles and technical headwinds ahead.

The RSI, at 58 and rising, is nowhere near overbought territory, but it may not immediately indicate bullishness unless XLV is able to establish an uptrend. For now, it isn’t clear if that will happen, so exercise caution.

From an actionable standpoint, the current technical structure doesn’t offer a clear entry setup. That’s largely because the trend lacks a well-defined sequence of higher swing highs and higher swing lows—something you’d typically look for when establishing favorable entry and exit positions.

At the Close

If healthcare and biotech are starting to rotate higher, XBI and XLV are the charts to watch. XBI shows a stronger trend structure, while XLV still faces resistance.  With seasonality on their side, add them to your ChartLists to track key levels and price action.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

With Friday’s pullback after a relatively strong week, the S&P 500 chart appears to be flashing a rare but powerful signal that is quite common at major market tops. The signal in question is a bearish momentum divergence, formed by a pattern of higher highs in price combined with lower peaks in momentum, which indicates weakening buying power after an extended bullish phase.

Today, we’ll share a brief history lesson of previous market tops starting with the COVID peak in 2020. And while we don’t necessarily see a sudden downdraft as the most likely outcome, this bearish price and momentum structure suggests limited upside for the S&P 500 until and unless this divergence is invalidated.

First, let’s review some classic market tops, see how divergences are formed, and learn what often comes next.

The year 2020 started in a position of strength, continuing the uptrend phase of 2019. But conditions soon deteriorated, with weaker momentum and breadth signals flashing cautionary patterns. In the chart below, we can see the higher highs and higher lows in price action in January and February 2020.

Notice how the RSI was overbought at the January peak but not overbought at the February top? This pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum is what we’re looking for, as it implies a lack of buying power and therefore limited upside.

Almost two years later, the market had been driven higher due to an unprecedented amount of liquidity injected into the financial system. Toward the end of 2021, however, we saw the familiar bearish divergence flash again.

Here, we can see the higher price highs in November 2021 through January 2022 were marked by lower readings on momentum indicators like RSI. It’s worth noting here that these divergences don’t happen in a vacuum. In other words, we can use other tools in the technical analysis toolkit to evaluate the trend and determine if the price is reacting as expected to the bearish divergence.

In the weeks after the 2022 peak, we can see that the price broke down through an ascending 50-day moving average. The RSI eventually broke below the 40 level, confirming the rotation from a bullish phase to a bearish phase. So while the divergence itself does not imply a particular path in the months after the signal, it alerts us to use other indicators to validate and track a subsequent downtrend move.

More recently, the February 2025 market peak featured some classic momentum patterns going into the eventual top.

Starting in August 2024, we can see a series of higher price highs that were accompanied by improving RSI peaks. As the price was moving higher, the stronger momentum readings confirmed the uptrend phase. Then, starting December 2024, the next couple price peaks were marked with weaker momentum readings. This bearish divergence with price and RSI once again signaled waning momentum going into a major market peak.

That brings us to the current S&P 500 chart, featuring yet another bearish momentum divergence. And based on what we’ve reviewed so far, you can probably understand why I’m a bit skeptical going into next week!

To be fair, I’ve highlighted price and momentum divergences from significant market tops, many of which came after extended bull market phases. In this case, we’re still only two months off a major market low. However, I would argue the basic premise still holds true. With Friday’s pullback, the S&P 500 appears to be flashing this same pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum. Considering this negative rotation on momentum, I would anticipate at least a retest of the May swing low around 5770.

What would change this tactical bearish expectation? The only way for a bearish divergence to be negated is for the price to continue higher on stronger momentum. So, until we see the price make a new peak combined with the RSI pushing back up to overbought levels, a pullback may be the most likely scenario in the coming weeks.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Peru is weighing sending what it considers highly dangerous foreign inmates to prisons in El Salvador, the prime minister said on Thursday, potentially following in the footsteps of US deportations of migrants to the Central American nation.

Peruvian Prime Minister Eduardo Arana did not immediately detail what such an agreement with El Salvador would look like, but the US has paid El Salvador to imprison Venezuelan migrants it alleges are gang members.

“The government is evaluating bilateral cooperation mechanisms for the transfer of highly dangerous foreign inmates to their countries of origin, including specialized centers such as the CECOT in El Salvador,” Arana told Congress.

He did not clarify whether Peru would only send Salvadoran prisoners to the nation or whether other foreign inmates could be sent as well. The prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The CECOT is El Salvador’s notorious maximum-security prison known for its harsh conditions, which have drawn sharp outcry from human rights groups.

Arana added that the Andean nation was seeking development bank financing to build more prisons of its own as it deals with overcrowding and a recent crime wave.

Peru has declared states of emergency in regions across the country in recent months, including in capital Lima, to tackle crime. In May, illegal miners kidnapped and killed 13 mine workers in Peru’s northern district of Pataz.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

It seemed impossible, but shortly after news broke that an Air India flight had crashed in the city of Ahmedabad, video started circulating on social media showing a man walking from the scene in a bloodstained shirt.

Then, it emerged there was one survivor: a British national of Indian origin, identified as Vishwash Kumar Ramesh by the Hindustan Times.

“Thirty seconds after takeoff, there was a loud noise and then the plane crashed. It all happened so quickly,” it quoted him as saying in an interview at the hospital where he was being treated.

He said he had been visiting family and was returning to the UK with his brother, who had been sitting in a different row. He didn’t know if his brother had survived, he said.

Air India later confirmed that of the 242 people on board the flight, 241 had died, making Ramesh the sole survivor.

His cousin Ajay Valgi told reporters in Leicester, England, that Ramesh had called his family to tell them he’s “fine,” adding that they were upset about his brother and all of the others who died.

“He has some blood in the images, but he’s not very badly injured. He is very comfortable and under strict observation, no issues,” said Dr. Rajnish Patel, professor and head of surgery at Ahmedabad Civil Hospital.

Ramesh’s survival was described as miraculous by a British member of parliament.

The doctor added that the death toll is likely to rise.

Earlier Thursday, Swapnil Bhalodia of the Indian Medical Association Medical Students Network said at least three medical students had died in the crash and another 30 were injured.

The plane was headed for London’s Gatwick airport and was carrying Indian, British, Canadian and Portuguese nationals.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Israel has launched what it called “preemptive strikes” against Iran and a state of emergency has been declared in Israel, according to the country’s Defense Minister Israel Katz.

“Following the State of Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile and drone attack against the State of Israel and its civilian population is expected in the immediate future” Katz said in a statement.

Iranian state media outlet IRNA reported repeated explosions could be heard in Tehran.

Israel’s National Security Cabinet had met throughout the night leading up to the attack in Iran, according to an Israeli official.

Israel has closed its airspace until further notice, according to the country’s ministry of transportation.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com