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If you’ve looked at enough charts over time, you start to recognize classic patterns that often appear. From head-and-shoulders tops to cup-and-handle patterns, they almost jump off the page when you bring up the chart. I would definitely include Fibonacci Retracements on that list, because before I ever bring up the Fibonacci tool on StockCharts, I’m pretty confident the levels are going to line up well with the price action.

Today, we’re going to look at a breakout name that shows why Fibonacci Retracements can be so valuable for confirming upside potential. We’ll also explain some best practices for identifying the most important price levels to use when setting up a Fibonacci framework. Finally, we’ll show how Fibonacci analysis could have helped you validate the current uptrend phase for the S&P 500 index.

Confirming Breakouts: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)

I started dropping quite a few Fibonacci Retracements on price charts soon after the April 7, 2025 market low. As stocks experienced a sudden and severe bounce off those lows, it became clear that we would need some way to validate a potential upside swing. That helped me zero in on the $20 level for Norwegian (NCLH), a level which was finally eclipsed this week.

Using the January high and the April low, we can see a 38.2% Fibonacci level come in right around $20. A gap higher in mid-May took NCLH close to that level, which was then retested again in early June. After bouncing off the 50-day moving average last week, Norwegian finally pushed above this first Fibonacci resistance level with Friday’s rally.

One of the ways we can differentiate between a “dead cat bounce” off a major low and the beginning of a much larger recovery phase is to key in on the first Fibonacci retracement level. If the price can push above this initial upside target, ideally on heavier than normal volume, then the chances of further upside are significantly increased.

In the case of NCLH, we can now bump up a price target to further Fibonacci levels. The 50% line, just below $20, lines up fairly well with the 200-day moving average. The 61.8% comes in right around $23.50, which represents my next upside target, assuming this week’s strength is confirmed by a follow-through day next week.

Identifying Pullbacks: Raytheon Technologies (RTX)

We can also use Fibonacci Retracements to identify downside targets after a major price peak. In the case of Raytheon Technologies (RTX), that means we use the April low and the high from mid-June to generate potential support levels.

In this case, we can see that the Fibonacci retracement levels line up very well with traditional support levels using the price action itself. The 38.2% level lines up with the mid-June low around $135, which also coordinates with the 50-day moving average. Beyond that support, the 50% level sits right at the late May low at $131, and the 61.8% level comes in right around the early May support at $126.

Given an initial pullback from the June peak around $149, I’m seeing strong potential support at the 38.2% level and 50-day moving average around $135. Now I can use Fibonacci levels to better define my risk vs. reward, showing how much downside action I’d anticipate while still keeping an eye on a return to the previous all-time highs.

Validating Uptrends: The S&P 500 Index ($SPX)

Sometimes Fibonacci Retracements are valuable in that they help validate that an uptrend is progressing with a decent pace. For the S&P 500 chart, every break of a Fibonacci resistance level has confirmed the strength of the broad market indexes off the April low.

It took only two sessions for the SPX to break above the 38.2% retracement of the February to April downtrend phase. In fact, the S&P almost reached the 50% level before pulling back to around 5100 in mid-April. From there, we can see a gap back above the 38.2% level, which helped confirm the strength of the new uptrend phase.

I still have the pink trendline on my chart that I remember drawing during the downtrend phase. “As long as the S&P remains below trendline resistance, the market is in a clear downtrend,” I remember saying out loud on my market recap show. So when the SPX broke above the 50% level, as well as that clear trendline, I was forced to acknowledge the staying power of this new uptrend phase.

The S&P 500 stalled out at the 61.8% retracement level in early May, but another price gap higher signaled that the final Fibonacci resistance level was no longer going to hold. And once you eclipse the final Fibonacci level, that implies a full retest back to the 100% point.

So am I surprised that the S&P 500 has pushed to new all-time highs this week? Absolutely not. Indeed, using Fibonacci Retracements on charts like this have helped me admit when a new uptrend is showing strength, and provide plenty of reminders to follow the trend until proven otherwise!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

As we head into the second half of 2025, here are three stocks that present strong technical setups with favorable risk/reward profiles. One is the largest market cap stock we’re familiar with, which bodes well for the market in general. The second is an old tech giant that’s making a comeback. The third is a beaten-down S&P 500 name that may be ready to rally.

Let’s dive into these three stocks.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is Leading the Market

Nvidia (NVDA) shares have finally broken out and closed above $150, a level we’ve been closely watching. With price action above that resistance threshold, NVDA’s stock price has room to run.

DeepSeek and tariff concerns seem to be in the rearview mirror. The fundamental positives are continued earnings growth, continued large tech cap-ex spend, and, more recently, Jensen Huang’s unveiling of a cute robot he feels could be the next big thing.

Technically, this move has legs, and we have the patterns and history to show for it. The risk/reward set-up is now quite favorable. Let’s break it down.

Over the last five years, there have been periods of consolidation (green boxes) and then significant breakouts to the upside. In all cases, shares became overbought according to the relative strength index (RSI). But overbought doesn’t mean NVDA’s stock price will reverse. During uptrends, overbought conditions can last for quite some time, as they did after the prior two significant breakouts.

With the official breakout above $150 and RSI again reading over 70, history suggests an extended rally is in the cards. A gain of 25–30% from current levels and a run to $200 is likely.

The downside risk is to the $150 level, from which shares just broke out. If this move is just a head fake, then use that level as a stop to limit your losses. This risk/reward set-up is why we believe this is one to own for the back half of 2025.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) Finds New Life

Old-timers like me may remember what a high flyer Cisco Systems (CSCO) once was. It’s been a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) since June 2009, and shares have struggled to sustain any upward momentum until lately.

Fundamentally, the company continued to grow through acquisition. Now, those deals are starting to help their bottom line, namely the $28 billion acquisition of Splunk that closed in 2024. 

Technically — and that’s what we care about on the StockCharts platform — we can have some fun.

Below is a 30-year chart going back to the dot-com boom. Cisco was one of Wall Street’s darlings and climbed astronomically before falling from the skies. It has struggled to revisit those levels, but that could change soon. 

Switching to a smaller time frame — a three-year weekly chart (see below) — we are seeing great set-ups as we head into the back half of 2025.

CSCO’s stock price consolidated between $43 and $55 for 15 months and broke out in late 2024. Shares rallied and then pulled back to old resistance (now support) at $55 and began their climb back.

Now shares are breaking out again. An upside target of $82, the all-time high set back during the dot-com era, is within reach and may just get there by year-end. The risk/reward seems favorable and, given the run in tech and cyber stocks which CSCO represents, the momentum is there to reach those highs.

Generac’s Power Play

Welcome to hurricane season! It lasts from June 1st to November 30. Generac (GNRC), a leader in home backup power, tends to perform well during weather extremes. It isn’t always the primary catalyst for rallies over the long term in the stock, but it can spur short-term rallies.

Last week, as much of the country was in the middle of a heat wave, GNRC had the best week of gains since November 2024, rallying nearly 12%. The trend change seems to be underway. Shares are lower by -8.1% year-to-date, and there’s room to run.

However, the charts are showing signs of life. Let’s keep this one as simple as possible.

The stock broke its longer-term downtrend (red line)

Shares have made a consistent set of higher lows (green uptrend)

Shares recaptured their 50-day moving average

Shares consolidated in an ascending triangle and broke out

Shares tested and failed to recapture their 200-day moving average

Progress is being made. The trend has changed, there’s something to reverse, and seasonal factors and reduced tariff concerns are a true tailwind.

Shares could easily pull back — a flag, if you will — to the $135 area, but should be a great entry point from a risk/reward perspective. Overall, shares are poised to continue reversing that longer-term downtrend, and could be a good addition to the portfolio for the end of 2025.

The Bottom Line

Each of these stocks offers a viable investment strategy with favorable risk-to-reward ratios. If you’re going to enter a position, use clearly-defined stop levels to manage your risks.


Germany is cutting financial support for charities that rescue migrants at risk of drowning in the Mediterranean, saying it will redirect resources to addressing conditions in source countries that spur people to leave.

For decades, migrants driven by war and poverty have made perilous crossings to reach Europe’s southern borders, with thousands estimated to die every year in their bid to reach a continent grown increasingly hostile to migration.

“Germany is committed to being humane and will help where people suffer but I don’t think it’s the foreign office’s job to finance this kind of sea rescue,” Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told a news conference.

“We need to be active where the need is greatest,” he added, mentioning the humanitarian emergency in war-shattered Sudan.

Under the previous left-leaning government, Germany began paying around 2 million euros ($2.34 million) annually to non-governmental organizations carrying out rescues of migrant-laden boats in trouble at sea.

For them, it has been a key source of funds: Germany’s Sea-Eye, which said rescue charities have saved 175,000 lives since 2015, received around 10% of its total income of around 3.2 million euros from the German government.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives won February’s national election after a campaign promising to curb irregular migration, which some voters in Europe’s largest economy see as being out of control.

Even though the overall numbers have been falling for several years, many Germans blame migration-related fears for the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), now the second largest party in parliament.

Many experts say that migration levels are mainly driven by economic and humanitarian emergencies in the source countries, with the official cold shoulder in destination countries having had little impact in deterring migrants.

Despite this, German officials suggest that sea rescues only incentivize people to risk the sometimes deadly crossings.

“The (government) support made possible extra missions and very concretely saved lives,” said Gorden Isler, Sea-Eye’s chairperson. “We might now have to stay in harbor despite emergencies.”

The opposition Greens, who controlled the foreign office when the subsidies were introduced, criticized the move.

“This will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and deepen human suffering,” said joint floor leader Britta Hasselmann.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Israeli forces shot dead a Palestinian teenager in the West Bank on Wednesday, Palestinian health authorities said, as settler violence against Palestinians surged in the occupied territory.

The military shot 15-year-old Rayan Tamer Hawshiya in the neck, the Ministry of Health in Ramallah said, after troops raided Al Yamoun, near Jenin. Residents in the northern town reported “heavy Israeli gunfire,” according to the minstry.

The Israeli military said that “terrorists hurled explosive devices at IDF forces” in Al Yamoun on Wednesday, adding that no IDF injuries were reported.

Separately, a 66-year-old Palestinian woman died from injuries after Israeli police shot her in the head in occupied East Jerusalem, according to local media reports.

Zahia Joudeh al-Obeidi “succumbed to her wounds” after Israeli police stormed Shuafat refugee camp, Palestinian news agency WAFA reported.

Israeli police said they launched an investigation into the circumstances of the death of an “East Jerusalem resident,” adding that the resident was “pronounced dead” by medical officials upon arrival at Shuafat checkpoint.

The killings came on the heels of a spate of attacks in the West Bank town of Kafr Malik, where Israeli settlers set fire to Palestinian homes and vehicles in what one Israeli opposition politician called a “violent Jewish pogrom.” Several people were killed and wounded, according to Palestinian and Israeli authorities.

The details of the deaths in Kafr Malik are unclear. The Palestinian foreign ministry said the settlers opened fire on Palestinian residents, while Israeli authorities said there was a firefight between Palestinian gunmen and Israeli security forces.

At least three Palestinians were killed and several were wounded, according to Palestinian officials. The Israeli military said “several” people were killed in the central town, but did not specify whether they were Palestinian or Israeli.

Israel has ramped up military operations in the West Bank, displacing thousands of Palestinians and razing entire communities as it targets what it says are militants operating in the territory.

Last year, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the state “must deal with the threat (in the West Bank) just as we deal with the terrorist infrastructure in Gaza, including the temporary evacuation of Palestinian residents.” He later warned that the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have fled their West Bank homes would not be allowed to return.

Human Rights Watch has accused Israel of inflicting “massive, deliberate displacement of Palestinian civilians” and making “much of the territory unlivable” in violation of international law.

Israeli settlers have also increased attacks on Palestinian communities and their properties, according to the United Nations’ human rights office.

Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 947 Palestinians, among them 200 children, in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, between October 7, 2023 and June 12, the UN reported on June 20. Between October 7, 2023 and June 26, at least 39 Israeli civilians have been killed in the West Bank, according to Israeli government officials.

Israel has occupied the West Bank since seizing the territory from Jordan in 1967. In late May, the Israeli government approved the largest expansion of Jewish settlements in the area in decades. The settlements are considered illegal under international law,

‘Stripped of basic dignity’

The IDF said security forces were deployed to the scene after “dozens of Israeli civilians” had set properties on fire. On arrival, the IDF said, the security forces were met with gunfire and rocks hurled by what it described as “terrorists” and they returned fire.

“Hits were identified, and it was later reported that there were several individuals injured and fatalities,” the IDF said, adding that five Israelis were arrested.

Israeli opposition politician Yair Golan condemned the settler attack, saying: “What happened this evening in Kafr Malik was a violent Jewish pogrom – dozens of rioters set fire to homes and vehicles, and assaulted Palestinians and security forces.”

Shortly after the violence in Kafr Malik, there was another settler attack close to the nearby village of Taybeh, according to the Israeli rights organization B’Tselem, which shared footage of masked men torching a parked car. Three people were injured and three cars were set on fire, it said.

A third settler attack took place around Jericho, according to the Palestine Red Crescent Society, which said eight people were injured due to smoke inhalation after a house was set on fire.

A UN official warned there has been “no respite” for Palestinian people in the northern West Bank, where he accused Israel of imposing “systematic forced displacement” on refugee communities in “violation of international law.”

“Out of the spotlight of the regional escalation, camps in the northern West Bank have faced ongoing destruction, with dozens of buildings demolished in the last twelve days,” Roland Friedrich, the director of affairs for UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestine refugees in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, posted on X on Wednesday.

“Even now, Israeli security forces are continuing to demolish homes and buildings in Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nur Shams camps. Stripped of basic dignity, many families have not even been able to save their belongings ahead of anticipated bulldozing.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

It must have been the last thing NATO’s chief needed.

Late Tuesday, on the eve of a crucial summit that would lock in a generational investment in NATO’s defense, Donald Trump’s Truth Social account pinged with a single photo: a gushing message signed “Mark Rutte,” written in a carbon-copy Trump style and overflowing with sycophantic praise for the US president.

“You are flying into another big success in the Hague this evening,” Rutte’s message read.

“Europe is going to pay in a BIG way, as they should, and it will be your win,” he continued.

“You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done.”

While the diplomatic world has bent toward many norms of the Trump White House, this was extreme.

Doubling down on the comments the following day, saying Trump deserved credit for his actions on Iran and NATO, Rutte waded through many observers’ incredulity at his kowtowing tone. But as the summit crescendoed, there was a growing sense he may have pulled off a diplomatic masterstroke.

Bromance

Rutte, the former Dutch prime minister, is no stranger to dealings with Trump, having deployed his easy charm in several visits to Washington, DC, during Trump’s first term.

Exuding an easygoing, relaxed image – his signature boyish grin never far from his face – Rutte’s charm offensive echoes that of other NATO leaders.

French President Emmanuel Macron has charted up a boisterous bromance with Trump; Finnish President Alex Stubb bonded with him over rounds of golf, and Italian far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has won a reputation as something of Trump whisperer: She’s a “fantastic woman,” in Trump’s words.

Rutte’s message – signed with his surname – perhaps spoke of a less pally relationship. So did one of Trump’s reactions Wednesday: “I think he likes me. If he doesn’t, I’ll let you know. I’ll come back and I’ll hit him hard,” Trump announced in his Wednesday news conference.

But in The Hague, Rutte seemed ready to do anything to burnish the US president’s ego and save him face.

Trump’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear program was “extremely impressive,” the NATO chief told Trump. “The signal it sends to the rest of the world that this president, when it comes to it, yes, he is a man of peace, but if necessary, he is willing to use strength.”

Time and again around the summit, Rutte’s interjections soothed Trump’s passage – softening his landing after a fiery “f**k” at Iran and Israel’s latest exchange of missiles lit up international headlines.

Rutte’s response: a jokey aside in front of the world’s cameras.

“Daddy has to sometimes use strong language,” he said beside Trump, after the US president used the analogy of two children fighting to describe the conflict between Iran and Israel.

Rutte later said he wasn’t referring to Trump as “daddy” but was merely using a metaphor.

The Dutchman didn’t spare praise for Trump’s strikes on Iran – a conflict technically outside the NATO wheelhouse – as the president railed against suggestions in a leaked government assessment that undercut his claim the strikes “obliterated” parts of Iran’s nuclear program.

“I do think this is a kind of hold-your-nose moment. Ensure there are no fireworks in The Hague. Get a good photo op and go home,” she added.

Beyond Rutte, the whole summit was sculpted around Trump.

Slimmed down, the schedule featured a single session for leaders; experts have suggested this was for Trump, who earlier this month skipped the ending of the G7 summit, missing a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Of course, the summit result is largely pre-ordained, after rounds of pre-negotiations to ensure the leaders had to only rubber-stamp declarations.

Ukraine’s war with Russia – by far the most pressing issue on NATO’s agenda – was also excised from the summit’s final declaration, the first time it has been missing since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Even the crown jewel of the gathering, the promise to spend 5% of gross domestic product on defense (split into core defense requirements and 1.5% on defense-related spending by 2035), was a Trump-branded product.

Back in January, Trump lofted the idea of a 5% spending target for NATO members, a figure that hadn’t been given serious consideration before, as members limped towards 2%.

“They can all afford it. They’re at 2% but they should be at 5%,” he told journalists.

The ends, not the means

But Rutte may have had the last laugh.

The summit was, by all accounts, a win for NATO: Members unanimously agreed to boost spendings to post-Cold War highs – and thanked Trump for it.

Spain was a notable exception, pushing for softened language that may have left a loophole for the Iberian nation to meet its responsibilities for NATO military capabilities without having to spend 5% of GDP. (The final summit declaration signed by NATO members referred only to “allies” in its clauses on spending, while others spoke of commitments “we” will make.)

Leaders – led, of course, by Rutte – singled out Trump as the sole pressure responsible for finally corralling NATO allies to previously unthinkable spending targets.

Boosted defense spending “is the success of President Donald Trump,” Polish President Andrzej Duda told journalists at the summit.

“Without the leadership of Donald Trump, it would be impossible,” he added.

His Lithuanian counterpart suggested a new motto for the alliance, “Make NATO great again,” as he welcomed the pressure Trump had levied on stingy allies.

Everybody wins

But in public, comment on Rutte’s messaging to Trump was largely off limits, with leaders waving off or swerving around questions.

Finland’s president wouldn’t be drawn on the NATO secretary general’s messages, but he said, however, “Diplomacy has so many different forms.”

Casualties – particularly from diplomatic skirmishes with Trump – were fewer than expected. Only Spain caught flak from the US president over its foot-dragging over the 5% GDP spend.

“It’s terrible what they’ve done,” Trump said, threatening to use trade talks to force Madrid into line. “We’re going to make them pay twice as much,” he said.

Even Zelensky – who has had a turbulent relationship with Trump – came away with wins.

While he stopped short of committing further US aid to Ukraine, Trump suggested Kyiv may see future Patriot missile system deliveries from the United States – and he slammed Putin as “misguided,” conceding the Russian leader may have territorial designs that extend further than Ukraine.

Finally, Trump’s own views on NATO – often a prickly subject for the famously transactional president – saw a reversal.

“These people really love their countries,” Trump said of the NATO leaders at his news conference concluding the NATO summit. “It’s not a rip-off, and we’re here to help them protect their country.”

“I came here because it was something I’m supposed to be doing,” he added, “but I left here a little bit different.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Editor’s Note: Help is available if you or someone you know is struggling with suicidal thoughts or mental health matters.
In the US: Call or text 988, the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline.
Globally: The International Association for Suicide Prevention and Befrienders Worldwide have contact information for crisis centers around the world.

Japan has executed a man dubbed the “Twitter killer,” who was convicted of murdering and dismembering nine people, mostly women, in the country’s first use of capital punishment in nearly three years.

Takahiro Shiraishi, 34, was hanged Friday at the Tokyo Detention House. He was sentenced to death in 2020 after pleading guilty to killing the nine people – eight women and one man.

Shiraishi was arrested in October 2017 after police searched his home in the city of Zama in Kanagawa prefecture, on the outskirts of Tokyo, to investigate the disappearance of a 23-year-old woman who had expressed suicidal thoughts on social media, including Twitter, now known as X.

The high-profile mass murder case had gripped the nation for years and raised concerns over the use of social media.

The nine victims were aged between 15 and 26, according to Japanese public broadcaster NHK and TV Asahi, which both cited court proceedings. The victims had posted online that they wanted to kill themselves, and were subsequently contacted by Shiraishi through social media platforms, NHK and TV Asahi reported.

Using a handle which loosely translates as “hangman,” Shiraishi invited them to his apartment in Zama, promising to help them die, the Jiji news agency reported, citing the indictment.

Shiraishi pleaded guilty to murdering the victims, saying in court that he had killed them to satisfy his own sexual desires, NHK and TV Asahi reported.

He was found guilty in December 2020 of murdering, raping and dismembering the nine victims, and storing their bodies in his apartment.

Shiraishi’s lawyer appealed the ruling to the Tokyo High Court, but he later withdrew the appeal and the sentence was finalized, NHK reported.

“This case, driven by selfish motives such as sexual and financial gratification, resulted in the deaths of nine individuals over two months – a deeply serious incident that has caused shock and anxiety across society. I understand it is an especially heartbreaking case for both the victims and their families,” Justice Minister Keisuke Suzuki told reporters Friday at a press conference.

Shiraishi’s execution is the first the country has seen since July 2022, NHK reported.

In Japan, the death penalty is delivered by hanging, with execution dates not made public until after the penalty is carried out. Executions are shrouded in secrecy with little to no warning, and families and lawyers are usually notified only after the execution has taken place.

“The death sentence was finalized following a thorough trial process. After careful and deliberate consideration of all factors, I issued the execution order,” Suzuki said.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

More than a third of the population of Tuvalu has applied to move to Australia, under a landmark visa scheme designed to help people escape rising sea levels.

The island nation – roughly halfway between Hawaii and Australia – is home to about 10,000 people, according to the latest government statistics, living across a clutch of tiny islets and atolls in the South Pacific.

With no part of its territory above six meters, it is one of the most at-risk places in the world to rising seas caused by climate change.

On June 16, Australia opened a roughly one-month application window for what it says is a one-of-a-kind visa offering necessitated by climate change. Under the new scheme, Australia will accept 280 visa winners from a random ballot between July and January 2026. The Tuvaluans will get permanent residency on arrival in Australia, with the right to work and access public healthcare and education.

“The opening of the Falepili Mobility Pathway delivers on our shared vision for mobility with dignity, by providing Tuvaluans the opportunity to live, study and work in Australia as climate impacts worsen,” Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said in a statement.

According to Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Feleti Teo, more than half of Tuvalu will be regularly inundated by tidal surges by 2050. By 2100, 90% of his nation will be regularly under water, he says.

Fongafale, the nation’s capital, is the largest and most populated islet in Tuvalu’s main atoll, Funafuti. It has a runway-like strip of land just 65 feet (20 meters) wide in some places.

“You can put yourself in my situation, as the prime minister of Tuvalu, contemplating development, contemplating services for the basic needs of our people, and at the same time being presented with a very confronting and disturbing forecast,” Teo told the United Nations Oceans Conference this month in Nice, France.

“Internal relocation in Tuvalu is not an option, we are totally flat,” the prime minister said on June 12. “There is no option to move inland or move to higher ground, because there is no higher ground.”

The visa scheme is part of a broader pact signed between Australia and Tuvalu in 2023, which binds Australia to defending Tuvalu both militarily and against rising seas.

Tuvalu, which claims 900,000 square kilometers of the South Pacific, is considered by Canberra as a crucial player in its ongoing struggle with China for regional influence.

Recognition is something Australia has said it will guarantee for Tuvalu, even if nobody can live there in the future. “The statehood and sovereignty of Tuvalu will continue, and the rights and duties inherent thereto will be maintained, notwithstanding the impact of climate change-related sea-level rise,” their treaty reads.

In 2022, at COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, Tuvalu announced that it sought to become the first nation in the world to move entirely online. The government has since developed a plan to “digitally recreate its land, archive its rich history and culture and move all government functions into a digital space.” Australia now recognizes Tuvalu’s “digital sovereignty,” which the country hopes will allow it to “retain its identity and continue to function as a state, even after its physical land is gone.”

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said last year his country shared a vision for a “peaceful, stable, prosperous and unified region.”

“It shows our Pacific partners that they can rely on Australia as a trusted and genuine partner.”

Australia’s support for the Pacific island nation has stood in stark contrast in recent months to US President Donald Trump’s administration, which has imposed sweeping crackdowns on climate policies and immigration.

Tuvalu is among a group of 36 countries that the Trump administration is looking to add to the current travel ban list, according to the Associated Press.

The ban fully restricts entry of nationals from 12 countries: Afghanistan; Myanmar, also known as Burma; Chad; Republic of the Congo; Equatorial Guinea; Eritrea; Haiti; Iran; Libya; Somalia; Sudan; and Yemen. People from seven countries also face partial restrictions: Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan and Venezuela.

The 36 countries, including Tuvalu’s Pacific neighbors Tonga and Vanuatu, had been told to commit to improving vetting of travelers and take steps to address the status of their nationals who are in the United States illegally or face similar restrictions, the AP reported, citing a diplomatic cable sent by the State Department.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its second consecutive 1% gain on Tuesday. That’s three solid 1% advances so far in June. And with a few trading days remaining in the month, the index has recorded only one 1% decline so far.

A lot can still happen before the month ends, but, as it stands, June is looking a lot like May, which also saw three 1% gains and one 1% loss. Taken together, these months resemble May and June of last year, although back then the S&P 500 advanced 52 consecutive sessions without a single 1% decline.

What this means for you: After the volatility of March and April—and the sharp rebound in mid-April—there has been a notable shift toward a more consistent uptrend. We talk about this frequently, and it bears repeating: the characteristics of a steady uptrend are unmistakable. It’s the foundation of our analysis that shapes our market outlook.

FIGURE 1. THE NUMBER OF 1% MOVES IN THE S&P 500 IN 2024 AND 2025. June is looking similar to May, which also saw three 1% gains and one 1% loss. It’s echoing the behavior we saw in May and June of 2024.

It all starts with daily price action. Low two-way volatility has set the tone in recent weeks. If this type of month-to-month tempo in daily moves continues, the uptrend can persist. The opposite, of course, is also true.

Zooming In On the Short-Term Moves

Looking at the S&P 500’s recent price action on the short-term chart, the index is now approximately +3% from its recent low last Friday. If this multi-day bounce were to stop now, it would be among the smallest over the last nine months. Indeed, most didn’t get much further before the next bout of profit taking, but this shows how the staircase-like advance could continue.

In other words, if this cadence persists, the S&P 500 could meander through its former highs, i.e., we may not see a resounding breakout. The more boring a move through 6,147, the better.

FIGURE 2. TWO-HOUR CHART OF THE S&P 500. The staircase-like advance in $SPX could continue, and the index could tiptoe through previous highs.

Also, notice how the recent drawdown only pulled the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) on this two-hour chart marginally below the 50 level, which shows that the momentum shift was limited last week. It’s a reminder of how weak the bounce attempt was in March, which set the stage for the second down leg of that move. If the reverse is now true, then another up leg could be afoot soon.

NVDA Stock: A Daily Perspective

NVDA made a new all-time high on Wednesday, the first since January 7. Its participation since the April 7 low has been a major and necessary piece to the SMH, XLK, NDX, and SPX’s rallies, and the global equity market’s overall comeback. 

We last cited the stock on May 27 and May 29 (before and right after it reported earnings), noting the bull flag pattern. The flag has held throughout, and NVDA is now close to achieving that price target. So, what’s next?

FIGURE 3: DAILY CHART OF NVDA’S STOCK PRICE. After the bull flag pattern, NVDA is close to achieving its price target.

NVDA vs. 200-Day Moving Average

NVDA’s comeback has pulled the stock back above its 200-day moving average. We’ve shown this before as the stock was coming back. The last few times NVDA reclaimed the long-term line after spending a long time below it, the stock advanced higher for years.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF NVDA WITH 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE. The last few times NVDA broke above its 200-day moving average after spending a long time below it, the stock advanced higher for years.

NVDA Stock: A Weekly Perspective

Even though NVDA made a marginal new high in early January, there was no follow-through. Thus, NVDA remains net flat since November 2024 and isn’t too far above its spike highs from last June either.

Altogether, the round trip can now be viewed as one big bullish pattern. We’ve seen similar formations play out three times since the October low. Once NVDA finally got through those volatile periods and broke out, those strong extensions that we all remember well ensued. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, but patterns tend to repeat no matter the timeframe. So, we need to respect that the same kind of breakout could happen again with the stock is sitting at the same levels as it was eight months ago, but with strong market-wide demand at its back.

FIGURE 5. WEEKLY CHART OF NVDA. Could a breakout with strong market-wide demand occur?

NVDA – GoNoGo

NVDA’s weekly trend just flipped to positive on the GoNoGo chart, as well. As is clear, the last time this happened was in early 2023, the same time that the first bullish pattern on the preceding chart happened.

FIGURE 6. NVDA’S PRICE ACTION USING GONOGO CHART. The weekly trend just switched to positive. This happened in 2023, which is around the time the first bullish pattern occurred in the weekly chart in Figure 5.

NVDA Stock: A Monthly Perspective

Zooming way out, this also could be the fourth major breakout from a monthly perspective. The prior ones happened in 2015, 2020, and 2023.

FIGURE 7. MONTHLY CHART OF NVDA. There could be a fourth major breakout in NVDA’s stock price.

The Bottom Line

If you’re someone who likes to stay invested with an eye on the long-term, this is the kind of environment where patience pays off. The S&P 500 appears to be building strength, and NVDA is helping lead the charge.


MACD, ADX and S&P 500 action frame Joe Rabil’s latest show, where a drifting index push him toward single-stock breakouts. Joe spotlights the daily and weekly charts of American Express, Fortinet, Parker-Hannifin, Pentair, and ServiceNow as showing strong ADX/MACD characteristics. He outlines how the patterns showing on these charts can outshine the broad market until momentum confirms a larger move.

The video premiered on June 25, 2025. Click this link to watch on Joe’s dedicated page.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Over a month ago, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) appeared on our StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) Top 10 list. SCTRs are an exclusive StockCharts tool that can help you quickly find stocks showing strong technical strength relative to other stocks in a similar category.

Now, the stock market is dynamic, and SMCI, like many stocks, went through a consolidation period with its price trading within a certain range. While SMCI was basically moving sideways, other stocks, such as Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR), Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD), and Roblox Corp. (RBLX), took their turn on the Top 10 SCTR list.

Spotting SMCI’s Potential Turnaround

After over a month of this sideways movement, SMCI is starting to show signs of a breakout. This can often be a sign of renewed strength for a stock to move higher, though there’s no guarantee.

A significant factor behind SMCI’s rise is the strength in AI-related tech stocks, which has given the broader market a big boost. The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) hit record highs, and other major indexes such as the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) and S&P 500 ($SPX) are just a hair away from hitting their record highs. For as long as this positive trend remains in place, SMCI will likely ride higher with the market.

Let’s break down SMCI’s daily chart.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. SMCI broke out of a trading range and has the potential to rise higher if momentum strengthens. Monitor momentum indicators such as the RSI and PPO.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

SMCI’s SCTR score was at 95.5 after Thursday’s close. The stock is trading comfortably above its 50-day simple moving average, its relative strength index (RSI) is approaching the 70 level, and the percentage price oscillator (PPO) is starting to show encouraging signs of positive momentum (see daily chart below).

Since SMCI has hit a high of $122.90, your initial thought might be that the stock has significant upside potential. It very well could. However, a key part of smart investing is understanding and managing risk. You know very well that any negative news headline is bound to send SMCI tumbling back to its lows; after all, it’s happened before.

Let’s say you spotted this breakout. The ideal approach is to wait for a pullback and a reversal back to the upside with strong follow-through before entering a long position. However, given the stock is moving relatively quickly, you let FOMO get to you and decided to enter a long SMCI position at around $48.

With the stock closing near its high for the day, there is the possibility of a higher move at the open, short of any negative news. But nothing is guaranteed, and you need downside protection for your position. Initially, your stop loss would be the top end of SMCI’s trading range. But what about your upside price targets?

For this, I turned to the weekly chart of SMCI and, using the annotation tool, added Fibonacci retracement levels from the March 2024 high to the November low.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF SMCI STOCK. Annotating Fibonacci retracement levels from the March 2024 high to the November 2024 low is one way to identify price targets.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Your first price target could be the 38.2% level, which falls just below $60. This aligns with the February high and was an area where the stock price stalled during August 2024 before it continued lower. If SMCI’s stock price hits that level, don’t be surprised if it wavers here. It could continue higher or fall lower depending on investor sentiment toward AI stocks.

Closing Position

Remember, protecting your capital is of utmost importance, regardless of whether the trade goes in your favor or not. Use stops with discipline, since stocks like SMCI can move both up and down quickly. Your objective should be to keep your losses small and let your profits run until the upside momentum dries up.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.