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On a recent evening in Kyiv, 4-year-old Olexander Reshetnik made a simple suggestion to his parents: “Let’s go to the parking garage now so we can sleep properly, and you don’t have to wake us up twice to take us there and back.”

The family lives on the 18th floor of a high-rise building and getting into the underground garage that doubles as a bomb shelter during Russian attacks is an uncomfortable experience. With aerial attacks becoming more common, it made sense to Oleksander to simply stay there.

Even at his young age, he knew the Russians would likely attack again.

His mother Khrystyna Reshetnik said the family has gotten used to seeing drones being shot down in the skies over Ukraine’s capital. In days gone by there would be one or two, maybe three, but things have changed.

Russia has ramped up its airborne attacks against Ukraine in recent weeks, launching as many as 479 drones and missiles in a single night. These assaults are not just bigger and more frequent; they are also more concentrated and executed in a way that makes them a lot more difficult to combat – as they are flown at higher altitudes, out of reach of machine guns.

Russia ramps up drone production

Russia successfully scaled up the domestic production of its most frequently used drone – the Iranian-designed Shahed – last fall and is now churning out hundreds of these killing machines every day.

Christina Harward, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said that according to current estimates, Moscow can now produce about 2,700 Shahed drones per month, as well as some 2,500 decoy drones.

The fact that some of the drones are decoys makes little difference to the Ukrainian defenses as Moscow has adapted them in a way that makes it very difficult to distinguish them from the real thing.

“So, either Ukrainian forces spend time trying to identify the decoys or they spend precious resources shooting them down. Either way, this helps the Russian missiles and Shaheds – with their large payloads – (as they) have the chance to get through to their targets,” Harward said.

The increased number of drones launched each night is overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses, especially since Russia began to zero in on handful of locations at a time.

On Monday night, it targeted the Ukrainian capital and the Black Sea port city of Odesa. The following night, it was Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Russia maintains that it does not target civilians, but evidence to the contrary continues to mount. At least 154 Ukrainian civilians – including children – have been killed by drones, in Russian missile assaults and by artillery across the country in the last four weeks. A further 900 civilians have been injured.

The deadly attacks are designed to undermine Ukrainian morale and create the illusion that Russia has the upper hand in the war – even though Moscow is far from “winning.”

The front line in Ukraine has not moved in any significant way since Ukrainian forces liberated the southern city of Kherson in November 2023.

Russia has only managed to seize about 5,000 square kilometers (1,900 square miles) of Ukraine’s territory since then. Russian troops have advanced in some areas in eastern and northern Ukraine in recent months but have not managed to break through or take over a major city.

‘Impossible to shoot them down’

Yuriy Chumak spends many of his nights perched on Kyiv’s rooftops, machine gun in hand. A Supreme Court judge by day, he is part of a volunteer drone-hunting unit by night. He said the skies have gotten significantly busier in recent weeks.

He said after Moscow started flying drones at higher altitudes, it has become much harder, if not impossible, for his unit to destroy them.

Previously, Russian forces would fly the drones low, for example along a riverbed, to avoid being detected by Ukraine’s air defenses for as long as possible.

“The time to respond was very short because we only detected it when it was (close),” he said.

These days, he said, Russian drones are flying two to five kilometers (1 to 3 miles) above the ground.

“We can see them all. Radars can track them. But it has become impossible to shoot them down with machine guns,” Chumak said, adding that Ukraine now has to use missiles to thwart them.

But missiles are in much shorter supply. This is pushing Ukrainian forces to find new solutions on the go. Melnyk said that the efficiency of Ukraine’s air defense system remains remarkable. “Even now, about 80% of drones are being intercepted. A few months ago, this percentage was about 95. (But) we can see the impact of Russia increasing the number (of drones) and changing tactics,” he added.

Speaking to reporters last month, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the Ukrainian Air Force and volunteers like Chumak for pivoting as Russia ramped up its air war.

He added that Kyiv was now using drone-to-drone interceptors to combat the higher altitude bombardment. “We have the technology. The question is when we will be able to expand,” he said.

Zelensky said that Russia can produce some 300 to 350 drones a day, while Ukraine can only make 100.

“The issue is no longer about production capacity. It’s financial,” he said.

‘The norm for our children’

Kyiv mom Khrystyna Reshetnik said one of the worst things about the Russian aerial assaults is that they have become commonplace to her three boys, aged 4, 8 and 11. Olexander regularly asks whether the noise he hears is a Kalibr cruise missile or a drone.

“He’s just a little boy and he already understands what’s going on,” Reshetnik said. As the attacks have intensified in size and scope, the family has been spending more time in the underground parking garage, where Olexander and his two brothers sleep in the trunk of their car.

“This has become the norm for our children. It hurts my heart,” she said.

Yet despite the daily horrors they experience, the Reshetniks are among the lucky ones. They live in Kyiv, a city that is relatively well defended. The majority of the explosions they hear are Ukrainian air defenses intercepting Russian drones.

Many others elsewhere around the country are left without protective shields because Ukraine’s access to air defenses is limited by what its Western allies are willing to spare. Closer to the front lines, Russian troops have been using smaller drones to target civilians.

“There is (a) ballistic missile coming, so I am going to go into the shelter. My point is that this is the daily life of Ukrainian citizens and civilians.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

French President Emmanuel Macron is due to land in Greenland Sunday, in a move designed to bolster European support for the Danish territory, which is still batting away advances from the Trump administration to acquire it for the United States.

Macron will be the first foreign leader to visit the resource-rich island since US President Donald Trump began his campaign to buy or annex Greenland, which he insists the US needs for national security purposes.

A source at the Élysée Palace said that the French president’s trip had a “dimension of European solidarity and one of strengthening sovereignty and territorial integrity,” without mentioning the Trump administration’s threats to purchase Greenland, or take it by force.

Additionally, Macron’s visit would focus on Arctic security, climate change and Greenland’s economic development, the source added.

During his time on the world’s biggest island the French leader will tour a glacier, a hydroelectric power station and a Danish warship moored near the semiautonomous territory’s capital, Nuuk, per the Élysée.

“The deeps are not for sale, any more than Greenland is for sale, any more than Antarctica or the high seas are for sale,” Macron said on June 9 as he opened a United Nations conference on the oceans in Nice, France.

Trump’s intentions for Greenland can’t be far from the French president’s thoughts on his first visit to the Arctic territory, which Macron will conduct alongside Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland’s political leader, Jens-Frederik Nielsen.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said in January that Paris had “started discussing (the deployment of French troops) with Denmark,” but that Copenhagen did not want to proceed with the idea.

Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in buying the island, or the US taking it by military or economic coercion, even as NATO ally Denmark and Greenland have firmly rejected the idea. Last month, the US president renewed his threat of using military force to annex the territory.

US Vice President JD Vance also made a stopover to visit American troops in Greenland in late March. During that trip, the vice president made a high-profile case for US control of the island. He said Greenland would be better off “coming under the United States’ security umbrella than you have been under Denmark’s security umbrella.”

In a move widely seen as an effort to ease American ambitions for the territory, on June 12 Denmark’s parliament widened a military agreement with Washington to allow US bases on Danish soil. US soldiers had previously been based at Danish facilities.

Denmark is also moving to bolster its military presence in Greenland, some 1,500 miles from the Danish mainland, including with fighter jets to patrol the western coastline toward the US and a navy frigate, per Greenland’s parliament.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

While the S&P 500 ($SPX) logged a negative reversal on Wednesday, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX), Wall Street’s fear gauge, logged a positive reversal. This is pretty typical: when the S&P 500 falls, the VIX rises.

Here’s what makes it interesting: the VIX has quietly crept up in three of the last four days. Before the midday pivot, the VIX hit its lowest level since February 21, 2025. And while that wasn’t the low in February, it was close. As the chart below depicts, back then, the VIX’s intraday low occurred on February 14, 2025, a few days before the SPX topped on February 19.

It wasn’t a screaming sell signal for equities. The S&P 500 was set to follow through on the big cup-with-handle pattern breakout, even though two straight bullish patterns failed in December and January.

Ultimately, the combination of the S&P 500 failing to get much higher than 6,100 and the VIX bouncing near support set the stage for the market rolling over. It was, of course, news-induced, but the market’s character had been changing since December, when breadth first took a major hit.

So, with the VIX closer to that same support zone now than it has been at any time the last few months and the S&P 500 back above 6,000, the pendulum has swung back near the extreme levels where the fireworks began. But there are two major differences now vs. then.

Bullish Patterns Are Working

Bullish patterns weren’t holding up well in December, January, and February (and then again in March). But they are working now.

Let’s not take this for granted. The S&P 500 starts the day with three live bullish patterns, and the index already hit one upside objective (5,840).

Most importantly, the index has extended above the breakout zones of the two biggest ones by 5.4% and 9%, respectively (see charts below). This means it could endure a not-so-small drawdown, and the patterns (and their upside targets) would remain in place. The index had no such cushion in February.

Still No 1% Declines

Since April 21, the S&P 500 has logged just one 1% decline, which now spans 35 trading days. It had 20 over the prior 71 days since January 6, 2025. That’s a rate of 2.8% vs. 28%. We had literally 10 times more 1% declines from January to April 21.

We didn’t see too many 1% losses in the first few weeks of 2025 either (see chart below). But with the index continuously failing at resistance, it just couldn’t leverage the low-volatility environment like it did from late 2023 through late 2024. As described above, in the last two months, the S&P 500 has been capitalizing on breakouts on low two-way volatility.

So, could all of this completely flip again with a massively surprising “unknown unknown” headline? There’s always that risk. And we know about the big collection of sell signals out there (MACD and Demark).

All of this suggests a respite is due. Bulls and bears seem to agree about that. What they don’t agree upon is the severity of that next pullback. There’s no use in trying to predict how far or how damaging it will be, however. As long as the bullish patterns remain intact, the nascent uptrend has a chance to continue in the months to come.

Zooming In: ARKK’s Strong Run

Let’s take a closer look at one of the more popular growth-focused ETFs: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Despite finishing off its highs, ARKK logged its fourth straight gain yesterday and is now up eight of the last nine trading sessions. Over that time, it has fully leveraged the bull flag we mentioned two weeks ago. The target from that pattern is near $67.

ARKK also logged its third straight trading box breakout in the last few days. So, from a short-term pattern perspective, things have continued to work for the stock.

Indicator-wise, ARKK is now officially overbought for the first time since last December. Over the last year, here’s how the ETF has fared after first reaching overbought territory.

Last July, ARKK hit its summer top just a few days after becoming overbought. In November and December (while ARKK’s upswing continued through mid-February), the ETF pulled back to levels below where the relative strength index (RSI) first hit 70 over the ensuing days/weeks both times.

In other words, this is not the best trading setup for new short-term longs. We expect the risk-reward to improve after the next pullback.

ARKK is also approaching the upper threshold of its big two-year trading channel, which could slow things down soon.

The Bottom Line

The S&P 500 is rising slowly and steadily, volatility is still relatively low, and growth plays like ARKK are looking strong, although they may be due for a pullback in the near term. Keep an eye on the chart patterns that are forming and look for investment opportunities on pullbacks.


With Friday’s pullback after a relatively strong week, the S&P 500 chart appears to be flashing a rare but powerful signal that is quite common at major market tops. The signal in question is a bearish momentum divergence, formed by a pattern of higher highs in price combined with lower peaks in momentum, which indicates weakening buying power after an extended bullish phase.

Today, we’ll share a brief history lesson of previous market tops starting with the COVID peak in 2020. And while we don’t necessarily see a sudden downdraft as the most likely outcome, this bearish price and momentum structure suggests limited upside for the S&P 500 until and unless this divergence is invalidated.

First, let’s review some classic market tops, see how divergences are formed, and learn what often comes next.

The year 2020 started in a position of strength, continuing the uptrend phase of 2019. But conditions soon deteriorated, with weaker momentum and breadth signals flashing cautionary patterns. In the chart below, we can see the higher highs and higher lows in price action in January and February 2020.

Notice how the RSI was overbought at the January peak but not overbought at the February top? This pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum is what we’re looking for, as it implies a lack of buying power and therefore limited upside.

Almost two years later, the market had been driven higher due to an unprecedented amount of liquidity injected into the financial system. Toward the end of 2021, however, we saw the familiar bearish divergence flash again.

Here, we can see the higher price highs in November 2021 through January 2022 were marked by lower readings on momentum indicators like RSI. It’s worth noting here that these divergences don’t happen in a vacuum. In other words, we can use other tools in the technical analysis toolkit to evaluate the trend and determine if the price is reacting as expected to the bearish divergence.

In the weeks after the 2022 peak, we can see that the price broke down through an ascending 50-day moving average. The RSI eventually broke below the 40 level, confirming the rotation from a bullish phase to a bearish phase. So while the divergence itself does not imply a particular path in the months after the signal, it alerts us to use other indicators to validate and track a subsequent downtrend move.

More recently, the February 2025 market peak featured some classic momentum patterns going into the eventual top.

Starting in August 2024, we can see a series of higher price highs that were accompanied by improving RSI peaks. As the price was moving higher, the stronger momentum readings confirmed the uptrend phase. Then, starting December 2024, the next couple price peaks were marked with weaker momentum readings. This bearish divergence with price and RSI once again signaled waning momentum going into a major market peak.

That brings us to the current S&P 500 chart, featuring yet another bearish momentum divergence. And based on what we’ve reviewed so far, you can probably understand why I’m a bit skeptical going into next week!

To be fair, I’ve highlighted price and momentum divergences from significant market tops, many of which came after extended bull market phases. In this case, we’re still only two months off a major market low. However, I would argue the basic premise still holds true. With Friday’s pullback, the S&P 500 appears to be flashing this same pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum. Considering this negative rotation on momentum, I would anticipate at least a retest of the May swing low around 5770.

What would change this tactical bearish expectation? The only way for a bearish divergence to be negated is for the price to continue higher on stronger momentum. So, until we see the price make a new peak combined with the RSI pushing back up to overbought levels, a pullback may be the most likely scenario in the coming weeks.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The Israeli military has warned that “all of Israel is under fire” after Tehran launched retaliatory strikes on Friday, following Israel’s attacks on Iranian military and nuclear targets.

Iran confirmed Friday evening local time that it had fired “hundreds of various ballistic missiles” towards Israel, in what it called the “beginning” of its “crushing response.”

“Moments ago, with the launch of hundreds of various ballistic missiles toward the occupied territories, the operation of decisive response to the savage attack of the Zionist regime has begun,” Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, reported.

Iranian munitions have fallen on at least one community within Tel Aviv, but no injuries have been reported so far, according to an Israeli police spokesperson.

“A short time ago, the Israel Police received reports of fallen munitions in one of the communities within the Tel Aviv District. At this stage, no injuries have been reported, but property damage has occurred,” the spokesperson said.

“Police officers and bomb disposal experts are currently working to isolate the impact sites,” the spokesperson added.

The Iranian barrage comes after Israel launched a massive two-pronged attack on Iran early Friday morning local time, with strikes aimed at destroying Iranian nuclear sites and decapitating its military leadership in Tehran.

Israel’s attack culminated years of threats and days of heightened speculation – but was executed without the blessing of Israel’s closest ally: the United States. The Trump administration has stressed that Israel acted unilaterally and that Washington was “not involved.”

Iran’s retaliation Friday evening began just as a press briefing with Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officials was underway.

Effie Defrin, spokesperson for the IDF, was answering questions from journalists when an announcement was played over a speakerphone. The broadcast of the briefing was then cut short.

Defense systems are operating to intercept the missiles, a statement from the Israel Defense Forces read. It has instructed the public to seek shelter.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Washington, DC  — 

Investigators have recovered equipment from this week’s tragic plane crash in Ahmedabad, India, which could shed light on the final moments on the flight deck.

The Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner’s cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder, which were recovered from on top of the medical college hostel building where the plane crashed, could put to rest some of the speculation into the investigation that killed 241 people aboard the aircraft, according to aviation industry experts.

The flight data recorder was recovered from the rear end of the plane.

“It’s quite dramatic,” Goelz said. “It looked to me like the plane was trying to land at the end. It was flaring, but we just won’t know until we get the boxes back.”

The Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau of India is in possession of the recorders and other potential pieces of evidence for the investigation. The data recorders are expected to give some insight into what happened during the flight’s final moments, when pilots were making critical decisions.

Less than a minute after takeoff, staff on the plane gave a mayday call to air traffic control, Indian civil aviation authorities said.

The deadly crash has drawn even more global attention to air safety and spurred on public anxieties about flying. There have already been several aviation tragedies and incidents this year — including January’s midair collision between an Army Black Hawk helicopter and an American Airlines regional jet — that have prompted calls to increase safety measures.

Boeing’s Dreamliner

Boeing’s 787-8 Dreamliner is highly regarded by many aviation experts for its reliability and engineering. In the last 14 years, the fleet has carried more than 1 billion total passengers, according to Boeing.

“It truly is an amazing airplane, and when they engineered it, it was completely off the normal production line of what Boeing usually creates,” said Erika Armstrong, a pilot and director of marketing at Advanced Aircrew Academy.

For years, the company has drawn increasing scrutiny for crashes involving its planes, leading to the 20-month grounding of its MAX aircraft following two deadly crashes, quality concerns and financial woes.

Golez said the tragedy “couldn’t happen at a worse time for Boeing,” which is part of the investigation along with GE Aerospace, the engine manufacturer for the plane.

In the United States, the plane maker will be in the hot seat at the end of the month, when investigators are set to determine the probable cause of an in-flight separation of a mid-exit door plug on a Boeing 737-9 commercial plane near Portland, Oregon, last year.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg has also reportedly canceled plans to attend the Paris Air Show, a major aviation industry event where the company typically shows off its aircraft.

“This accident is a further challenge,” Goelz said.

The Dreamliner is popular for international routes, with the 787-8 configuration fitting up to 248 passengers, according to Boeing.

What happens next

Jeff Guzzetti, president of consulting firm Guzzetti Aviation Risk Discovery and former NTSB official, said these investigations typically hold an “organizational meeting” where all of the technical experts will gather, recalling his own experience with accidents.

“They will form specialty groups” assigned to analyze different areas, such as the engines or the flight data recorder, he said. “They’ll put representatives from the different organizations on these groups, and they will begin to methodically document the wreckage and download the recorders.”

The crash falls under the jurisdiction of the International Civil Aviation Organization, the United Nations agency that helps 193 countries work together in air travel.

Guzzetti said the investigation is in its fact-finding phase, which includes wreckage clean up and interviews of those who trained the pilots. The captain and first officer’s background will be looked at, he said, which could range from how much sleep they got to what their flight record was like.

The black box recovery is critical, many experts say, at this point, because the technology will point to what pilots were saying before they made the mayday call.

“This will not be a mystery for more than another week or so if they got the data recorded, and the voice recorder will also explain what the pilots thought they were dealing with,” Goelz said. “Pilots sometimes make mistakes, you don’t know.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Israel launched a wave of unprecedented strikes on Iran shortly before sunrise Friday morning, hitting key sites in the nation’s nuclear program as well as residential areas in upscale neighborhoods of Tehran and killing some of the country’s highest-ranking military leaders.

Israel’s military said it used 200 fighter jets in the operation, called “Rising Lion.” Based on a review of strike targets, the attack had several prongs: Heavy strikes against at least one of Iran’s uranium enrichment sites as well as its stockpiles of ballistic missiles, and more targeted strikes in Tehran to decapitate the regime’s military leadership. It aimed to halt what Israel said was Tehran’s rapid progress in developing nuclear weapons.

The Israeli operation came after years of threats and days of heightened speculation.

Earlier in the week, the US had made efforts to withdraw non-essential personnel from locations around the Middle East, with one official citing “developing tension” in the region. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump told reporters in the White House that he did not want Israel to target Iran while talks to reach a new agreement to limit Iranian nuclear enrichment were ongoing.

In retaliation, Iran launched over 100 drones toward Israeli territory, Israel’s military said, and then a barrage of ballistic missiles.

Here’s what we know about how Israel’s attack unfolded, minute by minute. All times are local to Iran.

Pre-dawn: First strikes

Seven miles west of those buildings – still in the north of the city – another video showed damage from a strike on the upscale Chamran Town neighborhood. An entire wall had been stripped off one of the buildings, with people seen climbing through the rubble inside.

One strike hit centrally near Laleh Park, the site of protests over the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who died after Iran’s morality police detained her for allegedly not wearing her headscarf properly.

Beyond the capital, a video showed a strike on the Piranshahr military base in western Iran, some 350 miles (about 560 kilometers) away from Tehran. The video showed the dark night sky being lit up by a series of rapid explosions, with smoke rising in the distance.

The Natanz nuclear facility includes two large underground halls believed to hold centrifuges for enriching uranium, according to a 2003 report from the Institute for Science and International Security, which includes satellite imagery of the site under construction in 2002. Based on that imagery, the latest attacks do not appear to have hit the underground buildings, but the full extent of the damage is not yet known.

Iran’s atomic energy agency said its primary nuclear enrichment facility “did not encounter serious damage” and there were “no radiation leaks that would cause concern to the people” after Israel attacked it. The spokesperson of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Behrouz Kamalvandi, said on Iranian state media that the damage was on the ground level away from the underground facility at the plant.

Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a statement that “radiation levels outside the Natanz facility remained unchanged” but added that there was “radioactive contamination present inside the facility,” which “can be managed with appropriate protective measures.”

4:14 a.m.: IDF speaks

Soon after the first explosions rocked Tehran, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced it had launched preemptive strikes against Iran’s nuclear program.

It said it used jets to strike “dozens of military targets, including nuclear targets in different areas of Iran.”

The statement came at 3:44 a.m. in Israel, which is 30 minutes behind Iran’s time zone.

4:35 a.m.: Rubio distances US

Within minutes, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that the US was “not involved” in Israel’s strikes and that Israel’s actions were “unilateral.”

“Let me be clear: Iran should not target US interests or personnel,” Rubio said in a statement on X, anticipating a potential Iranian response.

Sunrise: Strikes continue

Just one mile west of the strikes on Chamran Town, daylight video showed the aftermath of a strike on Tehran’s Chizar neighborhood. A huge hole had been blown in the top two floors of a building, with twisted iron bars hanging from the concrete structure.

A 17-year-old Iranian, who asked to remain anonymous, said people were “screaming” in the streets. “I didn’t know what was happening. It was really scary,” the teenager said.

5:17 a.m.: Netanyahu announces Operation ‘Rising Lion’

As evidence of Israel’s strikes began to pour in, Netanyahu gave a televised address, saying that Israel had acted to “roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival.” He said the operation would continue for as long as it takes “to remove these threats.”

Netanyahu claimed Iran had produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine nuclear weapons. In a report sent to member states May 31, the IAEA also judged that Iran had enough uranium enriched to 60% purity, near weapons-grade, potentially to make nine nuclear weapons.

“Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time. It could be a year. It could be within a few months,” Netanyahu said. “This is a clear and present danger to Israel’s survival.”

The prime minister claimed Israel had struck Iran’s main enrichment facility in Natanz, which was corroborated by video of the site.

Past 6 a.m.

As the sun rose, the full scope of Israel’s attack became clearer. Videos published after 6 a.m. showed the aftermath of a strike on a military base and a cargo terminal in the western Kermanshah region, which borders Iraq, over 250 miles from Tehran and 167 miles from Baghdad.

6:26 a.m.: IAEA ‘concerned’

After Netanyahu claimed Israel had targeted the nuclear facility at Natanz, the UN nuclear watchdog confirmed that Natanz had been hit.

“The IAEA is closely monitoring the deeply concerning situation in Iran,” it said.

The agency said it was in contact with Iranian authorities regarding radiation levels in the area. In a later statement, it said it had not observed an increase in radiation.

8:35 a.m.: IDF announces killings

The Israeli military said it had killed three of the most senior men in Iran’s military and its nuclear program.

Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, head of the secretive Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was the highest-profile of those killed. In its initial statement, Israel also said it killed Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, and Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, leader of Iran’s emergency command.

Later, the IDF said it had killed Ali Shamkhani, a close aide to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC’s air force.

Many of the strikes on Tehran appear to have been targeting these senior officials. Last year, Israel demonstrated its ability to assassinate its adversaries in highly targeted attacks on Iranian soil. In July 2024, it killed Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas – the Iran-backed militia in Gaza – by remotely detonating a bomb that had been hidden in his room in Tehran.

While Friday’s strikes appeared extremely targeted, there have been reports of civilian casualties.

8:48 a.m.: Iran responds

The IDF said that Iran had launched more than 100 drones towards Israeli territory, and that Israel’s air defenses were preparing to intercept them.

“We’re expecting difficult hours,” it said.

Following previous Israeli attacks against Iran and its proxies in the region, Tehran fired back with huge salvos of ballistic missiles.

The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington, DC, said it was “possible that Israel somehow disrupted Iran’s response by targeting Iran’s ballistic missile launch sites and stockpiles.”

Around midday

Early afternoon, Iranian media reported that Israel had launched a fresh strike on the northwestern city of Tabriz. Tamsin news agency said the Tabriz Airport had come under “heavy Israeli attack.”

12:26 p.m.: Trump posts

After learning the extent of Israel’s attack, Trump urged Iran’s leaders to agree to a new nuclear deal “before there is nothing left” of their country.

Trump said he had given Iran “chance after chance” to make a deal. “JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” he wrote on Truth Social, his social media platform.

Under a 2015 nuclear deal struck by President Barack Obama, Iran agreed to drastically limit its number of centrifuges and cap uranium enrichment at levels far below those required to make weapons, in exchange for sanctions relief.

But during his first term as president in 2018, Trump withdrew from the deal, saying the “rotten structure” of the agreement was not enough to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb. He ramped up sanctions on Iran and threatened to sanction any country that helped the regime obtain nuclear weapons.

In his second term, Trump has revived efforts to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran.

Just hours before Israel’s attack, the president on Thursday cautioned Israel against launching a strike while talks are ongoing. US officials have held several rounds of high-stakes nuclear talks with Iran in recent weeks, demanding that Tehran stop all uranium enrichment activity.

Iran has long claimed that its nuclear program is peaceful. It has said it wants to keep enriching uranium for civilian purposes, like building a nuclear reactor, and not for weapons.

“Zero nuclear weapons = we DO have a deal. Zero enrichment = we do NOT have a deal,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an X post last month, setting out Tehran’s red lines in the talks.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Before Israel launched an unprecedented wave of strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and top military leaders this week, its spies were already on the ground in enemy territory.

Israeli intelligence agency Mossad had smuggled weapons into Iran ahead of the strikes, according to Israeli security officials, and would use the weapons to target Iran’s defense from within.

The officials said Israel established a base for launching explosive drones inside Iran, and the drones were later used to target missile launchers near Tehran. Precision weapons were also smuggled in and used to target surface-to-air missile systems, clearing the way for Israel’s Air Force to carry out more than 100 strikes with upward of 200 aircraft in the early hours of Friday local time.

The plan to disable Iranian defenses seems to have been effective; Israel said all of its aircraft returned safely from the first waves of strikes, appearing to show Israeli air superiority over parts of a country hundreds of miles away.

Intelligence gathered by the Mossad in Iran also gave Israel’s air force the ability to target senior Iranian commanders and scientists.

In an incredibly rare move, the Mossad released video from some of its operations, showing drones attacking what appear to be unsuspecting missile launchers.

It is the latest operation to show how deeply Israel’s intelligence services, including the Mossad, have penetrated some of Iran’s most closely guarded secrets. The operations have made the Mossad appear a nearly unstoppable force in Iran, capable of hitting at some of its highest-ranking officials and most sensitive sites.

“Mossad has treated Iran like its playground for years now,” said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and curator of the Iranist newsletter.

“From assassinating top nuclear scientists to sabotaging Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel has proved time and time again that it has always had the upper hand in this shadow war that has now been playing out in the open since the first tit-for-tat strikes in April 2024.”

An Israeli security source said the latest operation required commando forces operating deep within Tehran and across the country while avoiding detection from Iran’s security and intelligence agencies. The source said Mossad teams targeted air defense missiles, ballistic missiles, and missile launchers as the attack from the Israeli Air Force began.

A second Israeli security source said the Mossad operations were years in the making, involving both intelligence-gathering efforts and the deployment of Mossad commandos deep behind enemy lines.

Some of the Mossad commando forces operated in the Iranian capital itself, according to the security source.

In addition to the drone base established by the Mossad long before Wednesday’s attack, Mossad commandos deployed “precision-guided weapons systems” near Iranian missile air defense systems, which were activated at the same time as the Israeli air force began striking its targets. A second operation deployed sophisticated vehicle-mounted weaponry to target other Iranian defense systems.

The Mossad operation also involved assassinations of top Iranian officials.

Israel has shown – flaunted even – the Mossad’s ability to operate with near impunity in Iran in the past.

Starting in the early-2010s, Iran accused Israel of carrying out a campaign of assassinations against the country’s nuclear scientists. Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon tacitly acknowledged the targeted killings when he said in 2015 that Israel cannot be held responsible “for the life expectancy of Iran’s nuclear scientists.”

From 2007 to 2012 Israel allegedly carried out five covert assassinations, nearly all in Tehran, through remote-controlled bombings, or remote-controlled machine guns. Only one of Iran’s key nuclear scientists survived the assassination attempt, Fereydoon Abbasi.

Just last month, Abbasi told Iranian state media that any attack on production sites would have little impact on the timeline of developing a bomb, saying, “our capabilities are spread all over the country. If they target production sites, it will be inconsequential to our timetable, because our nuclear materials are not stored above ground for them to hit.”

Abbasi was one of the scientists killed in Israel’s early morning attack in Tehran.

The Mossad’s actions soon became much more public.

In early-2018, Israel stole Iran’s nuclear archive from Tehran, displaying the intelligence coup in a live broadcast from Jerusalem. Speaking in English, Netanyahu showed off the archive, including what he said were copies of 55,000 pages of Iranian nuclear information and a display of discs he said were 55,000 files.

Iran tried to dismiss Netanyahu’s comments as “childish” and “laughable,” but the plundering of the archive showed the confidence Israel had in the Mossad’s ability to function in Tehran. The operation, which would have required extensive planning and an intimate knowledge of the archive’s location and security, pushed the first Trump administration to withdraw from the original nuclear agreement with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Israel wasn’t done yet.

In November 2020, Israel assassinated Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s chief nuclear scientist, while he was in a bulletproof car traveling with his wife. Fakhrizadeh’s car was moving in a convoy with three security vehicles when he came under fire. Iranian state media said a remote-controlled machine gun opened fire on the nuclear scientist, who had been a long-time target for Israel.

The operation, which Israel has not publicly acknowledged, was carried out with remarkable precision, and it displayed a deep knowledge of Fakhrizadeh’s pattern of life.

And yet despite its repeated inability to stop the Mossad, Iran has proven incapable of improving.

Ram Ben Barak, the former deputy director of the Mossad, said the organization’s continued success is “due to a very, very disliked regime, even hated by most of the public, so this allows for intelligence penetration on one hand, and on the other, you have the sophistication and professionalism of the Israeli intelligence personnel.”

After the start of the war in Gaza, Israel assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran. A source familiar with the matter said Israel planted an explosive device in a guest house where Haniyeh was known to stay. The bomb was concealed in the room for two months before the targeted killing and detonated remotely once Haniyeh was in the room.

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Former England football captain David Beckham, Oscar-winning actor Gary Oldman and The Who front man Roger Daltrey are among the prominent figures awarded knighthoods in this year’s King’s Birthday Honours list.

Beckham, 50, was recognized for his services to sport and charity. A global soccer icon and former Manchester United midfielder, Beckham has represented England 115 times and clinched league titles across four countries.

He was appointed an officer of the Order of the British Empire (OBE) in 2003 and has since expanded his influence beyond the pitch. He has worked as an ambassador for the worldwide children’s charity UNICEF since 2005 and has been an ambassador for the King’s Foundation since last year.

As a result of his knighthood, his wife, fashion designer and former Spice Girl Victoria Beckham, will now be formally styled Lady Beckham.

Co-founder and lead singer of legendary British rock band The Who, Daltrey, 81, was honored for his services to charity. Alongside his storied musical career, Daltrey has served as a patron of the Teenage Cancer Trust since 2000, spearheading its annual concert series at London’s Royal Albert Hall for more than two decades.

The Who, formed in London in 1964, was inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 1990. Of the band’s four founding members, only Daltrey and guitarist Pete Townshend are still alive.

Oldman, 67, who played Harry Potter’s godfather Sirius Black in several of the movies in the franchise, was awarded a knighthood for services to drama. In 2018, the Hollywood star won an Oscar for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in the film “Darkest Hour.”

Most honors in the UK are awarded twice a year – on the monarch’s official birthday in June, and in the New Year. The list is compiled by the government and signed off by King Charles, with nominations reviewed by independent panels across different sectors.

The most recent New Year Honours list saw knighthoods conferred on actor Stephen Fry, former England soccer manager Gareth Southgate and London mayor Sadiq Khan.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

While the S&P 500 ($SPX) logged a negative reversal on Wednesday, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX), Wall Street’s fear gauge, logged a positive reversal. This is pretty typical: when the S&P 500 falls, the VIX rises.

Here’s what makes it interesting: the VIX has quietly crept up in three of the last four days. Before the midday pivot, the VIX hit its lowest level since February 21, 2025. And while that wasn’t the low in February, it was close. As the chart below depicts, back then, the VIX’s intraday low occurred on February 14, 2025, a few days before the SPX topped on February 19.

It wasn’t a screaming sell signal for equities. The S&P 500 was set to follow through on the big cup-with-handle pattern breakout, even though two straight bullish patterns failed in December and January.

Ultimately, the combination of the S&P 500 failing to get much higher than 6,100 and the VIX bouncing near support set the stage for the market rolling over. It was, of course, news-induced, but the market’s character had been changing since December, when breadth first took a major hit.

So, with the VIX closer to that same support zone now than it has been at any time the last few months and the S&P 500 back above 6,000, the pendulum has swung back near the extreme levels where the fireworks began. But there are two major differences now vs. then.

Bullish Patterns Are Working

Bullish patterns weren’t holding up well in December, January, and February (and then again in March). But they are working now.

Let’s not take this for granted. The S&P 500 starts the day with three live bullish patterns, and the index already hit one upside objective (5,840).

Most importantly, the index has extended above the breakout zones of the two biggest ones by 5.4% and 9%, respectively (see charts below). This means it could endure a not-so-small drawdown, and the patterns (and their upside targets) would remain in place. The index had no such cushion in February.

Still No 1% Declines

Since April 21, the S&P 500 has logged just one 1% decline, which now spans 35 trading days. It had 20 over the prior 71 days since January 6, 2025. That’s a rate of 2.8% vs. 28%. We had literally 10 times more 1% declines from January to April 21.

We didn’t see too many 1% losses in the first few weeks of 2025 either (see chart below). But with the index continuously failing at resistance, it just couldn’t leverage the low-volatility environment like it did from late 2023 through late 2024. As described above, in the last two months, the S&P 500 has been capitalizing on breakouts on low two-way volatility.

So, could all of this completely flip again with a massively surprising “unknown unknown” headline? There’s always that risk. And we know about the big collection of sell signals out there (MACD and Demark).

All of this suggests a respite is due. Bulls and bears seem to agree about that. What they don’t agree upon is the severity of that next pullback. There’s no use in trying to predict how far or how damaging it will be, however. As long as the bullish patterns remain intact, the nascent uptrend has a chance to continue in the months to come.

Zooming In: ARKK’s Strong Run

Let’s take a closer look at one of the more popular growth-focused ETFs: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Despite finishing off its highs, ARKK logged its fourth straight gain yesterday and is now up eight of the last nine trading sessions. Over that time, it has fully leveraged the bull flag we mentioned two weeks ago. The target from that pattern is near $67.

ARKK also logged its third straight trading box breakout in the last few days. So, from a short-term pattern perspective, things have continued to work for the stock.

Indicator-wise, ARKK is now officially overbought for the first time since last December. Over the last year, here’s how the ETF has fared after first reaching overbought territory.

Last July, ARKK hit its summer top just a few days after becoming overbought. In November and December (while ARKK’s upswing continued through mid-February), the ETF pulled back to levels below where the relative strength index (RSI) first hit 70 over the ensuing days/weeks both times.

In other words, this is not the best trading setup for new short-term longs. We expect the risk-reward to improve after the next pullback.

ARKK is also approaching the upper threshold of its big two-year trading channel, which could slow things down soon.

The Bottom Line

The S&P 500 is rising slowly and steadily, volatility is still relatively low, and growth plays like ARKK are looking strong, although they may be due for a pullback in the near term. Keep an eye on the chart patterns that are forming and look for investment opportunities on pullbacks.