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We wrote about the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll results a few weeks ago. Since then, the bearish activity on the chart has broken a record for the poll. Going back to the poll’s inception in 1987, we have never seen four weeks in a row of bearish readings above 55%. We are now at bearish extremes for this indicator.

Remember that sentiment, which this poll measures, is contrarian. This means that when market participants are extraordinarily bearish, it is a bullish indication. The opposite also applies; extraordinarily bullish readings are bearish for the market.

Clearly, you can see that, even after and during the bear market in 2022, we never saw a cluster of readings this high. This has put the bull/bear ratio at a very low reading. Typically speaking, this would result in an upside reversal.

One thing we would say is that sometimes poll takers are RIGHT! So while we do see extremely bearish readings, we wouldn’t bet the house that this isn’t a bear market. At DecisionPoint.com we have been monitoring our indicators and participation and we are considering that we are in the throes of a bear market rally and that it isn’t likely to stick around. However, charts like this do have us wondering if the correction is all we’ll get.

Conclusion: Sentiment is extremely bearish on AAII and typically this will lead to a sustained rally. However, we have to understand that sometimes the respondents are correct and we’ll see more downside after all.


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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Bear Market Rules


Seeing that the earnings slate is light, this week we focus on certain stocks to watch during uncertain times.

If you are jittery and risk-averse, we have two safer (boring) stocks, plus one tech stock that has shown great relative strength compared to its peers. Let’s do a deep dive into all three.

American International Group (AIG)

Insurance stocks have done quite well in the current volatile environment. As inflation fears mount, it’s ironic that an inflationary sector is a good one to buy in the current cycle.

We can go with a basket of insurance stocks by adding the iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK), which is up 7.3% YTD, but, for this article, let’s focus on one of its leaders, AIG.

Fundamentally, results have been solid and bolstered by a strong buyback program. AIG pays a dividend of 1.9%. Analysts, according to Bloomberg data, have the equivalent of 12 buys, 8 holds, and 0 sells with an average price target at current levels of $85.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF AIG. The stock is one of strongest within its sector and is likely to be more stable.

Technically, let’s keep it simple. Looking at multiple time frames, we are seeing breakouts. There are great risk/reward set-ups based on these patterns. It’s one of the strongest within the sector and looks attractive above $80. 

Shares won’t run up like a tech stock, but, in tougher and unpredictable times, look for more stable and slow growth with solid returns; thus, one of the best within the insurance sector.

John Deere (DE)

Another stock with great relative strength within the Industrial sector is DE. It’s up 11.3% year-to-date and outperforming both the Industrials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) (up 0.2% year-to-date) and the S&P 500 (-4%).

Fundamentally, John Deere’s guidance was not solid. Tariff concerns were mentioned, but — and this is a BIG BUT — CEO John May noted in the call that “75% of all products that we sell in the U.S. are assembled here in the U.S.” This fits well with the narrative coming out of Washington.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF DE. After breaking out of a two-year base, it looks like a great setup.

Technically, we see another great set-up. Shares experienced a major break-out of a two-year base on a weekly timeframe. The daily chart, while a tad more choppy, looks solid as well. The risk/reward set-up is also favorable to the bulls.

Again, kinda boring, but pullbacks have been bought. An upside target of $540 over the next year is very plausible given the base it broke out of on the weekly. Use a near-term stop on a pullback just under the $440 level, depending on your risk tolerance.

Broadcom (AVGO)

Broadcom (AVGO) is anything but boring. It’s the third biggest weight in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH), fourth in the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) and eighth in S&P 500. It’s one of the biggest stocks in a sector that has been struggling. And yet, when you look at it technically, it’s a top name with great relative strength.

Fundamentally, AVGO had a great quarterly result. AI chip revenue was up 220% y-o-y to $12.2 billion. The $69 billion acquisition of VMWare (end of 2023) is starting to pay dividends, as it helped expand its software business now that it has a full year under its belt. Like most semiconductor stocks, it hasn’t recovered since the DeepSeek news.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF BROADCOM STOCK. AVGO has retraced to its 200-day simple moving average and looks like a good risk/reward setup.

Yet technically, shares have retraced back to the rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and held. That level also coincides with the gap from which it broke above. Thus, the former major resistance area now becomes support. This gives investors a good risk/reward set-up, using the recent lows just below $177 as a near-term stop.

We can also see a bullish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), which signaled a buy signal last week. Between solid support holding, good technical relative strength, and a MACD buy signal, shares could run back to $215. That target would reach its declining 50-day moving average. If we see momentum come back into the sector, this should lead the rally.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

If one word could characterize this week’s stock market price action, it would be “sideways.” At least it’s better than trending lower.

The stock market seemed comfortable with the Federal Reserve’s message on Wednesday, but lost that upside momentum and wasn’t able to follow through on the upside move until the last 30 minutes of Friday’s trading.

The Dow ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) managed to eke out gains, ending the week on a slightly optimistic note.

On the bright side, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) pulled back from its March 10 level. Even quadruple witching Friday—when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single-stock futures all expire—didn’t see volatility spike too high. That said, the VIX is still elevated, relatively speaking, so we’re not exactly in complacent territory.

Quarterly earnings reports from Nike, Inc. (NKE), FedEx Corp. (FDX), and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) didn’t help. The most troubling of the three is FDX. FedEx’s performance indicates the overall health of the U.S. economy. Tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and uncertainty about economic growth could be headwinds, for FedEx and other companies.

The weekly chart of FDX below shows the stock is trading below its 150-week exponential moving average (EMA) with its 40-week EMA trending lower. FDX has been underperforming the Industrials Select Sector SPDR (XLI) since early September 2024.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF FEDEX STOCK. FDX is trading below its 150-week EMA and underperforming the Industrial sector. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Be sure to save this chart to your ChartLists. It acts like a monitor to check the U.S. economy’s pulse.

Precious Metals Shine

But it’s not all negative. Gold and silver prices have trended higher with gold hitting an all-time high this week. The daily six-month chart of gold futures ($GOLD) below shows that gold prices are trading above $3,000 per ounce.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Gold prices have rallied most of the year and could keep rising if investors invest in safe-haven assets such as gold. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

In addition to trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs, gold is outperforming the S&P 500. A rise in gold prices indicates risk-off sentiment, and, if investors continue to sell off stocks, gold prices could rise further. This is another valuable chart to monitor when uncertainty reigns.

Next week is heavy on macro data, so this back-and-forth movement could continue. Fasten your seatbelts.


End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 up 0.51% on the week, at 5667.56, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.2% on the week at 41,985.35; Nasdaq Composite up 0.17% on the week at 17,784.05.
  • $VIX down 11.39% on the week, closing at 19.28.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Utilities
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Elbit Systems, Ltd. (ESLT); XPeng, Inc. (XPEV); Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Applovin Corp. (APP); Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)

On the Radar Next Week

  • March S&P Global PMI
  • February PCE
  • Q4 GDP Growth Rate (final)
  • Fed speeches from Bostic, Barr, Kugler, and others

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Investors have closely watched Nvidia’s week-long GPU Technology Conference (GTC) for news and updates from the dominant maker of chips that power artificial intelligence applications.

The event comes at a pivotal time for Nvidia shares. After two years of monster gains, the stock is down 15% over the past month and 22% below the January all-time high.

As part of the event, CEO Jensen Huang took questions from analysts on topics ranging from demand for its advanced Blackwell chips to the impact of Trump administration tariffs. Here’s a breakdown of how Huang responded — and what analysts homed in on — during some of the most important questions:

Huang said he “underrepresented” demand in a slide that showed 3.6 million in estimated Blackwell shipments to the top four cloud service providers this year. While Huang acknowledged speculation regarding shrinking demand, he said the amount of computation needed for AI has “exploded” and that the four biggest cloud service clients remain “fully invested.”

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore noted that Huang’s commentary on Blackwell demand in data centers was the first-ever such disclosure.

“It was clear that the reason the company made the decision to give that data was to refocus the narrative on the strength of the demand profile, as they continue to field questions related to Open AI related spending shifting from 1 of the 4 to another of the 4, or the pressure of ASICs, which come from these 4 customers,” Moore wrote to clients, referring to application-specific integrated circuits.

Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar said the slide was “only scratching the surface” on demand. Beyond the four largest customers, he said others are also likely “all in line looking to get their hands on as much compute as their budgets allow.”

Another takeaway for Moore was the growth in physical AI, which refers to the use of the technology to power machines’ actions in the real world as opposed to within software.

At previous GTCs, Moore said physical AI “felt a little bit like speculative fiction.” But this year, “we are now hearing developers wrestling with tangible problems in the physical realm.”

Truist analyst William Stein, meanwhile, described physical AI as something that’s “starting to materialize.” The next wave for physical AI centers around robotics, he said, and presents a potential $50 trillion market for Nvidia.

Stein highliughted Jensen’s demonstration of Isaac GR00T N1, a customizable foundation model for humanoid robots.

Several analysts highlighted Huang’s explanation of what tariffs mean for Nvidia’s business.

“Management noted they have been preparing for such scenarios and are beginning to manufacture more onshore,” D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said. “It was mentioned that Nvidia is already utilizing [Taiwan Semiconductor’s’] Arizona fab where it is manufacturing production silicon.”

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said Huang’s answer made it seem like Nvidia’s push to relocate some manufacturing to the U.S. would limit the effect of higher tariffs.

Rasgon also noted that Huang brushed off concerns of a recession hurting customer spending. Huang argued that companies would first cut spending in the areas of their business that aren’t growing, Rasgon said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on Thursday walked back comments he made in January, when he cast doubt on whether useful quantum computers would hit the market in the next 15 years.

At Nvidia’s “Quantum Day” event, part of the company’s annual GTC Conference, Huang admitted that his comments came out wrong.

“This is the first event in history where a company CEO invites all of the guests to explain why he was wrong,” Huang said.

In January, Huang sent quantum computing stocks reeling when he said 15 years was “on the early side” in considering how long it would be before the technology would be useful. He said at the time that 20 years was a timeframe that “a whole bunch of us would believe.”

In his opening comments on Thursday, Huang drew comparisons between pre-revenue quantum companies and Nvidia’s early days. He said it took over 20 years for Nvidia to build out its software and hardware business.

He also expressed surprise that his comments were able to move markets, and joked he didn’t know that certain quantum computing companies were publicly traded.

“How could a quantum computer company be public?” Huang said.

The event included panels with representatives from 12 quantum companies and startups. It represents a truce of sorts between Nvidia, which makes more traditional computers, and the quantum computing industry. Several quantum execs fired back at Nvidia after Huang’s earlier comments.

A third panel included representatives from Microsoft and Amazon Web Services, which are also investing in quantum technology and are among Nvidia’s most important customers.

Nvidia has another reason to embrace quantum. As quantum computers are being built, much of the research on them is done through simulators on powerful computers, like those that Nvidia sells.

It’s also possible that a quantum computer would require a traditional computer to operate it. Nvidia is working to provide the technology and software to integrate graphics processing units (GPUs) and quantum chips.

“Of course, quantum computing has the potential and all of our hopes that it will deliver extraordinary impact,” Huang said on Thursday. “But the technology is insanely complicated.”

Nvidia said this week that it will build a research center in Boston to allow quantum companies to collaborate with researchers at Harvard and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The center will include several racks of the company’s Blackwell AI servers.

Quantum computing has been a dream of physicists and mathematicians since the 1980s, when California Institute of Technology professor Richard Feynman first proposed the idea behind a quantum computer.

While classical computers use bits that are either 0 or 1, the bits inside a quantum computer — qubits — end up being on or off based on probability. Experts predict that the technology will be able to solve problems with massive amounts of possible solutions, such as deciphering codes, routing deliveries or simulating chemistry or weather.

No quantum computer has yet beat a computer at solving a real, useful problem. But Google claimed late last year that it discovered a way to do error correction.

One question at the panel centered around whether quantum computing might one day threaten companies like Nvidia that make computers based on transistors.

“A long time ago, somebody asked me, ‘So what’s accelerated computing good for?’” Huang said at the panel. Accelerated computing is a phrase he uses to refer to the kind of GPU computers that Nvidia makes.

“I said, a long time ago, because I was wrong, this is going to replace computers,” he said. “This is going to be the way computing is done, and and everything, everything is going to be better. And it turned out I was wrong.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A French researcher was denied entry to the United States after US authorities found messages about President Donald Trump on his phone, a French government official said on Thursday.

France’s minister of higher education and research Philippe Baptiste said that the researcher was traveling to a conference near Houston earlier this month when US authorities found that his phone “contained exchanges with colleagues and friends in which he expressed a personal opinion on the Trump administration’s research policies.”

The researcher was then denied entry to the US and expelled from the country, Baptiste said.

The French ministry of higher education and research said that he worked in the field of space research, and that the incident took place on March 9.

“Freedom of opinion, free research, and academic freedom are values that we will continue to proudly uphold,” Baptiste said in a statement.

“I will defend the right of all French researchers to adhere to these values, while respecting the law, regardless of the country in which they find themselves,” he added.

“If an individual has material discovered on their electronic media that raises flags during an inspection, it can result in further analysis. Claims that such decisions are politically motivated are completely unfounded,” Hilton Beckham, CBP Assistant Commissioner of Public Affairs, said in a statement.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The government of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has voted to dismiss Ronen Bar, the chief of Israel’s Shin Bet internal security service.

The vote in the early hours of Friday local time could still be subject to appeals by Israel’s Supreme Court.

“The government has now unanimously approved Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to terminate the term of Shin Bet head Ronen Bar,” the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement Friday.

“Ronen Bar will end his role as Shin Bet head on April 10, 2025, or when a permanent Shin Bet head is appointed – whichever comes first,” it added.

It came after Netanyahu met with Bar last week and informed him that he would propose his removal.

In a video statement released on Sunday, Netanyahu said his “ongoing distrust” of Bar had led to the move. “At all times, but especially in such an existential war, the prime minister must have full confidence in the head of the Shin Bet,” Netanyahu said.

Netanyahu added that removing Bar would be necessary for achieving Israel’s war goals in Gaza and “preventing the next disaster.” The prime minister has frequently criticized the agency, placing blame on its leaders for the security lapses that led to the Hamas October 7, 2023, attacks that killed more than 1,200 people.

Shin Bet, which is in charge of monitoring domestic threats to Israel, conducted an internal investigation that determined that the agency had “failed in its mission” to prevent the attacks. But it also blamed policies enacted by Netanyahu’s government as contributing factors, such as politicians’ visits to the Al Aqsa compound in Jerusalem, “the treatment of prisoners, and the perception that Israeli society has been weakened due to the damage to social cohesion.”

Shin Bet is reported to have recently opened an investigation into allegations that members of Netanyahu’s office inappropriately lobbied on behalf of Qatar – something his office denies.

On Wednesday, the office of Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara sent a letter to Netanyahu saying that the government could not fire Bar without the approval of a special committee.

Netanyahu responded with a letter on Thursday, saying Baharav-Miara was “exceeding her authority” and “giving legal opinions and instructions to the government in violation of Supreme Court rulings.”

Bar released a statement just hours before his dismissal saying the vote by Netanyahu’s cabinet “was hastily convened, contrary to every basic legal rule dealing with the right to be heard and contrary to the position of the legal adviser to the government.”

Netanyahu has previously removed both Bar and the head of the Mossad intelligence service, David Barnea, from the negotiating team engaging in indirect talks with Hamas regarding the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal.

Opposition politicians have criticized Netanyahu’s targeting of Bar, claiming it is politically motivated.

“The dismissal of the head of the service at this time, at the initiative of the prime minister, sends a message to all those involved, a message that may jeopardize the optimal outcome of the investigation. This is a direct danger to the security of the state of Israel,” Bar said in his statement Thursday.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Conor McGregor will run for the Irish presidency in elections later this year, the controversial former fighter said on Thursday, as he announced his candidacy for the largely ceremonial role on an anti-immigration stance.

McGregor, who in recent years has emerged as a figurehead for the far-right in Ireland, said on social media that he would run for president to oppose a long-awaited new European Union migration pact aimed at sharing the burden of processing asylum claims more evenly across the bloc.

“Who else will stand up to Government and oppose this bill?” he said in an Instagram post to his more than 46 million followers. “Any other Presidential candidate they attempt to put forward will be of no resistance to them. I will!”

The post comes just days after McGregor, 36, appeared at the White House with Donald Trump on St. Patrick’s Day, where he became the latest European ally of the US president to promote anti-immigrant sentiment – drawing controversy and censure back home.

“Ireland is at the cusp of potentially losing its Irishness,” McGregor said Monday, claiming the government had “abandoned the voices” of Irish people and that rural towns were being overrun by immigrants.

Irish leader Micheál Martin said McGregor’s comments “did not reflect the spirit of St. Patrick’s Day, or the views of the people of Ireland.”

Once the face of the Ultimate Fighting Championship, Dublin-born McGregor was the first fighter to hold two UFC belts simultaneously and, according to Forbes, was the world’s highest paid sports star in 2021.

Despite several rumored comebacks, he hasn’t fought in the UFC since back-to-back defeats four years ago – and has become a hugely controversial figure in Ireland, dogged by accusations of sexual assault, which he has denied.

In a January civil lawsuit, a woman accused McGregor of sexual battery during the 2023 NBA Finals in Miami. The incident was investigated by police at the time and the Miami-Dade state attorney declined to press charges against him. McGregor said the allegations were false.

Last fall, a civil jury in Dublin awarded nearly 250,000 euros ($257,000) in damages to a woman who claimed McGregor had “brutally raped and battered” her in a hotel in Dublin in 2018. McGregor testified that the two had consensual sex and vowed to appeal the verdict.

As far back as 2022, McGregor had expressed support for people protesting against immigration. Some Irish politicians have accused him of fanning the flames of discontent online, voicing his anger at Ireland’s immigration policy – a particularly sensitive issue given the country’s long history of emigration.

Ireland, a country of just over 5 million people, saw 141,600 immigrants arrive in the year leading up to April 2023 – the highest figure in 16 years with some attracted by its strong economic performance, according to the Central Statistics Office Ireland.

But for many ordinary workers, the benefits are failing to reach their pockets and they are struggling to afford high housing prices and rents.

Ireland’s next presidential election must take place by November 11.

In his Instagram post Thursday, McGregor said he would put the EU migration bill to a referendum if elected.

“Although I oppose greatly this pact, it is neither mine nor government’s choice to make. It is the people of Ireland’s choice! Always!” he wrote.

“This is the future of Ireland with me as President.”

But McGregor faces an uphill task to get his name on the ballot as few Irish lawmakers share his vehement anti-immigrant views, and many publicly criticized him after the civil case last November.

Presidential candidates must be nominated by at least 20 of the 234 members of the lower and upper houses of parliament or by four of Ireland’s 31 local councils, according to the country’s electoral commission.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

London’s Heathrow Airport announced a complete shutdown all day Friday due to a “significant power outage” due to a large fire nearby, causing massive disruption to one of the world’s busiest travel hubs as flights were forced to turn back midair or divert to other locations.

“Due to a fire at an electrical substation supplying the airport, Heathrow is experiencing a significant power outage,” Heathrow Airport said in a statement on X. “To maintain the safety of our passengers and colleagues, Heathrow will be closed until 23h59 on 21 March.”

A transformer at an electrical substation in Hayes, a London suburb located just a few miles from the airport, caught fire Thursday night, according to the London Fire Brigade. The cause is not yet known, and firefighters were still working to extinguish the blaze as of early Friday morning.

The brigade said it evacuated 150 people from the area. More than 16,000 homes lost power, according to utility supplier Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks — with Britain’s National Grid “working at speed” to restore power.

Videos shared on social media showed huge flames and smoke rising into the air early Friday.

“As we head into the morning, disruption is expected to increase, and we urge people to avoid the area wherever possible,” Assistant Commissioner Pat Goulbourne said in the fire brigade’s statement.

Heathrow Airport appeared largely dark amid the power outage, according to videos shared on social media.

Massive disruption

The shutdown could affect tens of thousands of travelers. Heathrow was the world’s fourth-busiest airport in 2023, according to the most recent data, with a record-breaking 83.9 million passengers passing through last year.

Spread across four terminals and located 14 miles west of central London, it usually runs at 99% capacity, with every major airline passing through, meaning it’s always very busy.

Airline analytics firm Cirium estimated that “upwards of 145,000” passengers could be impacted.

Dual US-Norwegian citizen Kim Mikkel Skibrek had already been flying for three hours from Minneapolis to London when crew announced they had to turn back due to the fire.

On the same flight, Abby Hertz and her family were traveling to London for the wedding of her husband’s best friend. The couple had postponed the wedding once due to Covid and were finally getting married now that their son was in remission from leukemia, Hertz said — but it’s not clear if they’ll be able to make the wedding now.

Meanwhile at New York’s JFK Airport, passenger Christine said her British Airways flight had been ready to depart when the pilot announced they’d been asked to hold for a while. Half an hour later, passengers were told Heathrow was closed and that another flight which had already taxied to the runway had turned back — leaving them stuck on the tarmac.

“The mood is fairly relaxed on the plane, surprisingly. They’ve just come around to feed us,” said Christine, who declined to give her last name. But, she said, with a wedding in the UK to attend Saturday, “I really hope we’re not stuck until then!”

According to flight tracking website FlightRadar24, more than 1,350 flights going in or out of Heathrow on Friday will be affected. It also said 120 flights were in the air when the announcement came. They had to be diverted to other airports or turned back to their original location.

Thomas added that while shorter domestic flights might be able to turn back, that’s not an option for long-haul international flights. There are several other airports near London, including Gatwick Airport and Stansted Airport, but those are likely “at capacity,” meaning diverted flights have to go further to find an alternative place to land — like in Glasgow or Edinburgh, he said.

And that could pose another problem. Those other airports, some of them smaller and lower-cost than Heathrow, aren’t equipped to handle the sheer number of diverted passengers coming their way, he said.

As authorities race to contain the fire and navigate the fallout, they’ll also face tough questions, Thomas said, including why such a crucial travel and economic hub wasn’t able to tap into a backup power source.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

China is practicing “dogfighting” satellites as part of its expanding capabilities in space, according to the United States Space Force, which warned that Washington’s key rivals are closing the technology gap as space becomes increasingly critical to security on Earth.

The Space Force observed “five different objects in space maneuvering in and out and around each other in synchronicity and in control,” its vice chief of space operations Gen. Michael A. Guetlein said Tuesday at a defense conference.

“That’s what we call dogfighting in space. They are practicing tactics, techniques, and procedures to do on-orbit space operations from one satellite to another,” Guetlein said, using a term that typically refers to close-range aerial combat between fighter jets.

While the purpose of such operations was not clear – and some experts question the use of the term – Guetlein’s comments come as analysts say a growing number of countries, including China, have sought to develop counterspace technologies.

Such capabilities could enable a country to destroy or disable satellites, potentially allowing them to interrupt a rival military’s communications or operations like launching and detecting missiles. Such interference could also wreak havoc on global navigation systems used for everything from banking and cargo shipping to ambulance dispatch.

The US has been closely watching China’s rapid rise as a space power in recent decades, not only through its ambitious lunar and deep-space exploration programs, but also what analysts describe as its deepening counterspace capabilities.

In response to a question about China and Russia, Guetlein said they had developed “exquisite” capabilities. He cited the deployment of jammers to disrupt satellite signals, the ability to dazzle intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance satellites with lasers, as well as maneuvers involving grappling with a satellite and towing it to a different orbit.

“This is the most complex and challenging strategic environment that we have seen in a long time, if not ever,” Guetlein said, adding that the force needs “capabilities to deter and, if necessary, defeat aggression” to “guarantee that the advantage is in our favor” into the future.

“There used to be a capability gap between us and our near peers, mainly driven by the technological advancement of the United States … that capability gap has significantly narrowed,” he said.

The “dogfighting” incident referenced by Guetlein involved a series of Chinese satellite maneuvers in 2024 in low Earth orbit involving three Shiyan-24C experimental satellites and two Chinese experimental space objects, the Shijian-6 05A/B, a Space Force spokesperson said.

Beijing has released little public information about its experimental satellites and such operations. The country included safeguarding its “security interests in outer space” among its national defense goals in a 2019 white paper but has long said it stands “for the peaceful use of outer space” and opposes an arms race there.

‘Dogfighting’ in space?

Given the physical dynamics in space, the maneuvers described by Guetlein as “dogfighting” would look very different from those in the air between fighter jets, in this case involving satellites maneuvering around one another using propellant, experts say.

Analysts have long been closely monitoring interactions between satellites and other objects in space. Typically referred to as “rendezvous and proximity operations,” these maneuvers can be used for peaceful operations like satellite maintenance or clearing debris – but could also allow countries to interfere with adversaries’ assets.

“Close maneuvering around other satellites could suggest the development of a counterspace weapon because getting close to another satellite means you could potentially grab it, launch a net or projectile at it, or use an energy weapon, like a laser or jammer,” said Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.

“But getting close to another satellite might also suggest other purposes, like in-space servicing or refueling. It could also be one satellite trying to take a picture of the other one,” he said, adding that China is launching “more and more satellites that demonstrate the ability to conduct sophisticated maneuvers.”

“We don’t really know for sure, at least not publicly, what any of these satellites are up to, but some are probably doing surveillance and also testing out new space technologies that could be used as counterspace weapons,” Swope added.

There is no confirmed public evidence of China using counterspace capabilities against any military targets, the independent US-based Secure World Foundation said in an annual report on countries’ counterspace capabilities last year.

Russia and the US are also known to conduct proximity operations to their own and other satellites, she added.

“It’s hard to say if this Chinese capability is something that the US doesn’t have since we’re learning about it from US commercial SSA (space situational awareness) companies, who are generally reluctant to discuss what US satellites are up to,” she said.

Referring to China’s operations as “dogfighting” in space is “not helpful” because it “automatically ascribes hostile intentions to activities that frankly the US also undertakes,” Samson added.

Currently, the US doesn’t have an acknowledged operational program to target satellites from within orbit using other satellites or spacecraft, though it could likely quickly field one in the future, according to SWF’s annual report.

That’s because the US has done extensive “non-offensive” testing of technologies to approach and rendezvous with satellites, including close approaches of its own military satellites and several Russian and Chinese military satellites, the foundation said.

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