Is the market’s next surge already underway? Find out with Tom Bowley’s breakdown of where the money is flowing now and how you can get in front of it.
In this video, Tom covers key moves in the major indexes, revealing strength in transports, small caps, and home construction. He identifies industry rotation signals, which are pointing to aluminum, recreational products, and furnishings. Tom then demonstrates how to use StockCharts’ tools to scan for momentum stocks in emerging leadership groups — see why SGI tops Tom’s list. He ends with a discussion of post-earnings reactions from major names like GOOGL, TSLA, IBM, and LVS.
And, of course, Tom wraps every idea with clear chart setups you can act on today.
This video premiered on July 24, 2025. Click this link to watch on Tom’s dedicated page.
Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link.
Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at
XLU Leads with New High
Even though the Utilities SPDR (XLU) cannot keep pace with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Communication Services SPDR (XLC), it is in a leading uptrend. XLU formed a cup-with-handle from November to July and broke to new highs the last two weeks. ETFs hitting new highs are in strong uptrends and should be on our radar.
Metal Mania in 2025
In a tribute to Ozzy, metals are leading the way higher in 2025. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for the continuous futures for 12 commodities. Copper, Platinum and Palladium are up more than 45% year-to-date, while Gold is up 28.38% and Silver is up 35.30%. QQQ is up 10.52% year-to-date, but lagging these metals. The other commodities are mixed.
Multi-Year Highs for Silver and Copper
The next chart shows 11 year bar charts for five metals. Gold broke out in early 2024 and led the metals move with an advance the last 21 months. Silver and copper broke out to multi-year highs. Platinum broke above its 2021 high and Palladium got in the action with an 18 month high. There is a clear message here: metals are moving higher and leading as a group.
Home Construction Hits Moment of Truth
The Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its moment of truth as it rose to its falling 40-week SMA. Notice that ITB failed just below this moving average in August 2023. During the 2023-2024 uptrend, the 40-week SMA was more friendly as ITB reversed near this level in October 2023 and June 2024. ITB surged to the falling 40-week SMA in July, but the long-term trend is down and this area could be its nemesis.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
Active Bullish Patterns
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
Failed Bearish Patterns
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
Active Bullish Patterns
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
Failed Bearish Patterns
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
Active Bullish Patterns
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
Failed Bearish Patterns
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
Active Bullish Patterns
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
Failed Bearish Patterns
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
The head of the Justice Department’s antitrust unit said Thursday she is leaving the role, effective immediately, at a critical moment for corporate mergers in America.
Gail Slater, the assistant attorney general in charge of the Antitrust Division, wrote on X: ‘It is with great sadness and abiding hope that I leave my role as AAG for Antitrust today.’
Slater continued, ‘It was indeed the honor of a lifetime to serve in this role. Huge thanks to all who supported me this past year, most especially the men and women of’ the Department.
The White House referred questions to the Justice Department.
Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a statement, “On behalf of the Department of Justice, we thank Gail Slater for her service to the Antitrust Division which works to protect consumers, promote affordability, and expand economic opportunity.”
Slater is leaving just as media giants Netflix and Paramount Skydance battle for control of Warner Bros. Discovery.
President Donald Trump had said he was going to get involved in reviewing whichever Warner Bros. deal proceeds, an uncommon occurrence in antitrust matters.
But in an interview with NBC News, Trump slightly changed his tune. ‘I’ve been called by both sides, it’s the two sides, but I’ve decided I shouldn’t be involved,’ he said.
‘The Justice Department will handle it.’
Trump has met with executives from both of Warner Bros.’ bidders.
The Justice Department will also head to court in weeks in a bid to challenge concert venue manager Live Nation’s ownership of Ticketmaster.
Shares of Live Nation jumped as much as 5.8% after Slater announced her departure. By 1 p.m. ET, the rally had abated to around 2.5%.
When the Senate confirmed Slater, 78 senators from both sides of the aisle voted in her favor. Only 19 opposed her confirmation.
This week, her deputy in the Antitrust Division also departed.
Mark Hamer, deputy assistant attorney general for the Antitrust Division, wrote on LinkedIn, ‘Decided the time is right for me to return to private practice.’ He praised Slater as a ‘leader of exceptional wisdom, strength and integrity.’
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
Active Bullish Patterns
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
Failed Bearish Patterns
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
Active Bullish Patterns
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
Failed Bearish Patterns
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
CHICAGO — Cardi B was part of Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show. What she did exactly, well, that turned into a perplexing question for two major prediction markets.
At least one Kalshi trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over how the prediction market handled Sunday’s appearance by the Grammy-winning rapper. The result of a similar event contract on Polymarket also drew the ire of some users on that platform.
Prediction markets provide an opportunity to trade — or wager — on the result of future events. The markets are comprised of typically yes-or-no questions called event contracts, with the prices connected to what traders are willing to pay, which theoretically indicates the perceived probability of an event occurring.
The buy-in for each contract ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what traders think could happen.
More than $47.3 million was wagered on Kalshi’s market for “ Who will perform at the Big Game? ” A Polymarket contract had more than $10 million in volume.
Celebrities including Pedro Pascal, Karol G and Cardi B during the Super Bowl halftime show on Sunday.Kevin Mazur / Getty Images for Roc Nation
Cardi B joined singers Karol G and Young Miko and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a starry front porch during the halftime spectacle. She danced to the music, but it was unclear whether she was singing along during the show, which included performances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga.
Due to “ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B’s attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying ‘performance,’” Kalshi cited one of its rules in settling the market at the last price before trading was paused: $0.74 for No holders and $0.26 for Yes holders. The platform returned all the money to its users.
Polymarket’s contract was resolved as Cardi B had performed, but the yes was disputed. A final decision on the contract is expected to be announced on Wednesday.
In the CFTC complaint — first reported by the Event Horizon newsletter and posted by Front Office Sports — the trader alleges that Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act with how it resolved the Cardi B contract. The trader — a Yes holder — is seeking $3,700.
A CFTC spokesman declined comment on Wednesday.
The Super Bowl capped a big NFL season for prediction markets.
Kalshi reported a daily record high of more than $1 billion in total trading volume on the day of the game, an increase of more than 2,700% compared to last year’s Super Bowl. The season-long total for all Super Bowl winner futures was $828.6 million, up more than 2,000% from last year.
The increased activity on Sunday caused some deposit issues. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posted on X on Monday that the “traffic spike was way bigger than our most optimistic forecasts.” She said the platform had reimbursed processing fees on the effected deposits and added credits to users who experienced delays.
Robinhood Markets highlighted the strength of its prediction markets when it announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full 2025 on Tuesday.
“I think we are just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time,” CEO Vlad Tenev said during an earnings call. “This year is going to be a big year. Olympics are going on right now. World Cup coming in the summer.”
