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It was unexpected, barely implemented and not even extended. But the Kremlin’s hopelessly short-lived Easter truce was aimed directly at US President Donald Trump and at shifting blame for his disastrous peacemaking efforts in the Ukraine war.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a surprise 30-hour ceasefire on Saturday, there was already skepticism in Ukraine and beyond that it was anything more than a cynical public relations stunt amid growing criticism that Moscow had become a foot-dragging obstacle to peace.

But it also revealed that Putin could suspend the conflict at any time, fueling hopes that the short putting down of weapons might be rolled over and become the start of something more substantial, perhaps even creating space for a serious peace process to take root.

Instead, the Easter truce simply expired at midnight on Sunday, exactly when the Kremlin always said it would. Ukraine called on Russia to maintain the ceasefire for longer. But as far as we know there weren’t even talks to extend. For Moscow, it seems, this was never going to be the beginning of the end of the war.

From the moment the guns fell silent — or were meant to — at 6 p.m. Moscow time on Saturday, there were reports of widescale violations on both sides. The Ukrainian military accused Russian forces of launching 2,935 attacks along the vast frontlines, including 1,882 instances of shelling and 96 Russian ground assaults.

But it’s the indignant Russian cries of foul play the Kremlin is gambling Trump will hear loud and clear.

Russian officials alleged nearly 5,000 Ukrainian violations, reiterating that a longer ceasefire, such as the 30 days proposed by Trump and already agreed to by Kyiv but rejected by Moscow, is not viable.

“Ukraine, by not observing the Easter truce proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, has shown that it is not capable of ceasing fire even for 30 hours,” said the Russian foreign ministry’s ambassador-at-large for crimes of the Kyiv regime, Rodion Miroshnik, on Kremlin-controlled television on Sunday.

For the Kremlin, this was a goodwill gesture, in the form of a Russian ceasefire, which exposed the Ukrainian leadership, and their European backers, as the real roadblock to a Trump deal.

The White House has repeatedly echoed Kremlin talking points in the past and it may be correct to think it could do so again.

There has been growing unease in Moscow at what could happen if an unpredictable Trump really does walk away from his Ukraine peacemaking efforts, as he has threatened to do if there is not progress soon.

Putin’s biggest concern is that Trump will blame Russia, bolster US support for Kyiv and impose tough new economic sanctions on Moscow, spelling an end to the potential benefits of a reconfiguration of US-Russia relations.

The US remains “committed to achieving a full and comprehensive ceasefire,” a State Department spokesperson said Sunday, after Kyiv accused Moscow of repeatedly breaking the truce.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week that Washington could end its efforts on ending the Ukrainian conflict within “days” if there weren’t any signs of progress.

Convincing Trump that Ukraine, not Russia, is responsible for any ultimate failure of his peace process is, therefore, an important Kremlin objective and was likely a key reason why the Easter truce was declared.

Before it ended on Sunday night, with the Kremlin explaining that no order was given by Putin to prolong the ceasefire, there were signs Trump remains engaged — for now.

“Hopefully Russia amd (sic) Ukraine will make a deal this week. Both will then start to do big business with the United States of America, which is thriving, and make a fortune,” Trump posted on Truth Social Sunday in capital letters, as he returned from a golf course he owns outside Washington.

The words were upbeat and Trump, for the moment, seems strangely optimistic there can still be a deal, despite the weekend’s dashed hopes of a breakthrough in the Ukraine war.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Following the death of Pope Francis, a cardinal from the United States has become acting head of the Vatican until a new pontiff is elected.

He is Cardinal Kevin Farrell, a Dublin-born cleric who became a naturalized American citizen after spending many years ministering in the United States. Farrell, a former Bishop of Dallas, holds the position of “camerlengo” (or chamberlain) which tasks him with “overseeing and administering the temporal goods and rights of the Apostolic See” following the death or resignation of a pope.

It is the camerlengo’s job to “officially ascertain the Pope’s death,” place seals on the pope’s bedroom and study and make funeral preparations. The camerlengo is also tasked with making practical arrangements for the conclave, to ensure the confidentiality of proceedings and orderly voting.

Wearing white choir dress and a red stole (a vestment), he presides over the ceremonial service of the certification of death, “a first moment of prayer” following the death of the pope, and the placing of the body into a wooden and zinc coffin, according to a liturgical book for papal funeral rites which Francis had updated last year. He draws up “the authentic act of death” which is then attached to the death certificate that has been drawn up by the Vatican’s Director of the Department of Health and Hygiene. On Monday evening, the Vatican press office said Francis died of a stroke and heart failure.

The camerlengo’s powers are limited to the day-to-day administration of the Vatican and he chairs a committee of three other cardinals as he carries out his duties. When serious matters arise, he must consult with the wider body of cardinals.

Nevertheless, during the papal interregnum – the period between the death of one pope and the election of another – the camerlengo can request financial information from Vatican departments including details of any “extraordinary business” taking place. He can also demand “the budget and consolidated financial statement of the Holy See for the previous year, as well as the budget for the following year,” according to the constitution of the church’s central administration. During a papal interregnum, all leaders of the Vatican offices cease to carry out their work aside from the camerlengo and two others.

Farrell is a well-qualified camerlengo. The 77-year-old is unusual for a high-ranking church leader in holding a Master of Business Administration degree (MBA), from the University of Notre Dame, Indiana. Farrell is the highest-ranking US bishop in the church’s central administration and known as a strong decision maker and organizer who has the advantage of being a fluent English and Spanish speaker, the two most widely spoken languages in the global church. He is also known to speak Italian and Irish Gaelic.

Farrell’s expertise caught the attention of Pope Francis who made him one of his most trusted collaborators. In 2016, Francis appointed the then Bishop of Dallas to be the leader of the Vatican’s family life, later making him a cardinal and then, three years later, choosing him for the important and sensitive position of camerlengo.

But they weren’t the only responsibilities Francis gave the cardinal. In 2023, the pope appointed Farrell as President of the Vatican City state supreme court while naming him president of both the Vatican’s “Commission for Confidential Matters” and “Committee for Investments,” the latter designed to guarantee to the ethical nature of the Holy See’s financial investments. Farrell was also chosen to sit on the boards overseeing the Holy See’s property portfolio and the administration of Vatican City State.

Born in 1947, he left Ireland as a teenager and joined the Legionaries of Christ, a religious order founded in Mexico in 1941 which would later be plagued by the revelations of abuse by its founder, Marcial Maciel. Farrell, however, left the group decades before Maciel was revealed to have sexually abused dozens of minors.

The future cardinal studied in Spain and Rome and then worked in Mexico and the US. In 1984 he became a priest of the Archdiocese of Washington DC and went on to hold senior positions in the capitol’s local church. He would later face questions about what he knew regarding the case of former cardinal and Archbishop of Washington, Theodore McCarrick, found guilty by a church trial of abusing minors and of sexual misconduct against adult trainee priests. Farrell denied any knowledge of McCarrick’s behavior. “Did I ever know? No. Did I ever suspect? No. Did he ever abuse any seminarian in Washington? No,” he said.

While leading the Vatican’s Dicastery for the Laity, Family and Life, the cardinal appointed two women to senior positions in his department and has said that his successor could be a non-cleric. “My expertise is getting people to do the job, people who are qualified to do the job,” he has said. Service at high-level in the church seems to be in the family blood with one of Farrell’s brothers, Brian, also a priest and a bishop and has spent many years working in the Vatican.

He backed the pope’s merciful approach to divorced and remarried Catholics, with Francis opening the door to them receiving communion. “Fundamentally, this is about meeting people where they are,” Farrell explained. The cardinal described opposition to the late pope as “vicious” and “unprecedented” but insisted Francis had bought the church closer to the fundamentals of Christianity.

As the church prepares for a new pontiff, Farrell will seek to ensure the transition is as smooth and seamless as possible.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday he is open to the possibility of bilateral talks with Ukraine for the first time in years, as pressure from the United States builds on both sides to agree to a quick peace deal.

US, European and Ukrainian officials are set to meet this week in London after Washington warned that it could abandon its efforts on ending the conflict if there were no signs of progress.

Speaking to reporters, Putin said it could be possible to discuss the halting of strikes against civilian infrastructure directly with Kyiv.

“We have a positive attitude towards a ceasefire,” Putin also said, referencing Russia’s decision to implement a surprise 30-hour Easter truce – which both sides accused each other of violating.

“That is why we have always said that we take a positive attitude to any peace initiatives,” Putin said. “We hope that the representatives of the Kyiv regime will feel the same way.”

Ukraine, which called for the extension of the truce before it expired Sunday, has repeatedly accused Russia of deliberately targeting civilians with air and drone strikes, and President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for Moscow to halt such attacks.

Putin acknowledged that recent Russian strikes had hit civilian facilities in Ukraine, but claimed that they were being used for military purposes.

“That’s what we need to look into,” he said. “It’s all a subject to be thoroughly investigated. Maybe bilaterally, as a result of dialogue. We don’t rule that out.”

“So we will analyze all of this and make appropriate decisions for the future,” he said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed Putin’s remarks to journalists, Reuters reported citing Russia’s Interfax news agency.

“When the president said that it was possible to discuss the issue of not striking civilian targets, including bilaterally, the president had in mind negotiations and discussions with the Ukrainian side,” the news agency quoted Peskov as saying.

Ukraine and Russia have not held direct talks since the early weeks of Moscow’s invasion in 2022.

Last Friday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the US could walk away from its efforts to end the Ukrainian conflict within “days” if there were no signs of progress. Trump later confirmed the sentiment, but did not provide a timeline.

Asked what progress he would need to see to continue negotiations, Trump said he would “have to see an enthusiasm to want to end it” from both sides, predicting he would know “soon.”

The remarks came after a broad framework was presented by the US to both sides, Rubio and the State Department have said, to determine whether differences between Kyiv and Moscow can be narrowed.

There are still pieces of the framework to be filled out and the US plans to work with the Europeans and the Ukrainians during talks this week in London, the person said. The Trump administration is simultaneously planning another meeting between Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Russia to get Moscow on board with the framework, the source said.

Moscow has previously stalled on negotiations and rejected an earlier US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire agreed to by Kyiv.

Zelensky has not publicly commented on the latest US proposal. On Tuesday, he said Ukraine will send a delegation to the follow up talks in London.

“Ukraine, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States — we are ready to move forward as constructively as possible… to achieve an unconditional ceasefire, followed by the establishment of a real and lasting peace,” he wrote in a statement on X.

“An unconditional ceasefire must be the first step toward peace,” he said.

Zelensky has expressed willingness to agree to a peace deal with Moscow but said last month that his government would not recognize any occupied territories as Russian, calling that a “red line.”

Trump has declined to say whether he is prepared to walk away completely from the talks or whether the US would support Ukraine militarily if talks fall through.

Kosta Gak and Kylie Atwood contributed reporting

This post appeared first on cnn.com

An old saying about papal elections goes as follows: “He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.” In other words, any candidate seen as the frontrunner before the voting begins should be treated with caution, and no cardinal should go into the Sistine Chapel assuming they will get the votes.

At the 2013 conclave, one of the favorites was Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan. The Italian bishops were so confident that he would be chosen that after the white smoke emerged from the Vatican chimney, a senior Italian church official sent a message to reporters expressing joy over Scola’s election. The problem was that Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio had already been named pope.

This conclave is going to be crucial for deciding the future direction of the Roman Catholic Church, and the field of candidates is wide open thanks to Pope Francis’ reforms.

During his pontificate, Francis overhauled the composition of the body that will elect his successor, making it more representative of the worldwide church.

He threw out the old, unwritten rulebook that bishops of certain dioceses (several of them in Italy) would automatically be made cardinals and instead gave red hats to bishops in parts of the world that had never had them before, such as Tonga, Haiti and Papua New Guinea. Several of them are “outsiders” to the Roman system, so it makes it harder to predict how they will vote.

Nevertheless, only a few cardinals have the requisite skills, experience and personality suitable to taking on the role of leading the Roman Catholic Church.

Electors will need to consider the priorities of the church and the profile of the next candidate. They will also need to consider whether the next pope should continue the reforms started by Francis or take a different direction.

They will be looking for someone able to lead a global church and offer credible moral leadership on the world stage. Some see the church’s future as lying in Asia, which has led to speculation the next pope could be from Southeast Asia.

Age is also a factor, with the last two conclaves opting for older popes to ensure shorter pontificates.

Papal candidates are known as “papabile” or translated from the Italian, “pope-able.” The vast majority of the papabile were appointed by Pope Francis, although two were chosen by Benedict XVI. Here are some of the contenders.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

As the world rushed to pay tribute to Pope Francis following his death, the response has been comparatively muted in China – an officially atheist state with millions of Catholics whose government has had a difficult and complex relationship with the Vatican.

In the passing of Pope Francis, Beijing loses a well-respected global leader who had pushed the Vatican closer to China’s Communist Party leadership than any of his predecessors.

Nonetheless, Chinese state-controlled media’s coverage on his death has been terse, and more than 20 hours after the Vatican’s announcement of his passing neither Beijing nor China’s own state-sanctioned Catholic Church had issued an official statement.

While condolences from the government are ultimately expected – likely via a foreign ministry spokesperson per precedent – China’s minimalist response underscores the sensitivity of ties between the atheist ruling Communist Party and the Holy See.

The Vatican has not maintained formal diplomatic relations with China since 1951, when the newly established communist regime broke ties and expelled the papal nuncio, the Holy See’s envoy.

Instead, the Vatican remains one of a dwindling number of countries – and the only one in Europe – that recognizes the sovereignty of Taiwan, a self-governing island democracy Beijing claims its own.

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te offered “sincerest condolences on behalf of the people of Taiwan” over the Pope’s death soon after the Vatican’s announcement, while the island’s foreign ministry said Taipei would send an envoy to the pontiff’s funeral.

That diplomatic allegiance to Taiwan has remained a sore point for Beijing as it feuded with the Vatican for decades over who gets to appoint Catholic bishops in China. Pope Francis had attempted to address the issue with a landmark – although controversial – deal with the Chinese government as he pushed for better ties.

In China, the ruling Communist Party keeps a tight grip on religion, fearing challenges to its authority, and allows worship only at state-controlled churches.

For decades, China’s state-sanctioned Catholic churches had been run by bishops appointed by Beijing, until the two sides reached an agreement under Pope Francis in 2018. Details of the controversial accord have never been made public and many within China’s underground congregations who have remained loyal to Rome and long faced persecution fear being abandoned.

The deal, which is part of Pope Francis’s vision to expand the Catholic Church’s following across the world, aimed to help the Vatican gain access to potentially millions of converts across China. It was renewed in 2020 and 2022, and in October last year, both sides agreed to extend it for another four years.

But critics have questioned why the church, historically a defender of human rights and Christian values, would willingly join forces with the Chinese government, which under leader Xi Jinping has further curtailed religious freedom. Much of that criticism of the deal has come from within the Catholic Church itself.

The Vatican insists the deal is already paying off and hopes to open a permanent office in China. That has left Catholics in Taiwan wondering what will happen to them should the Vatican ever switch recognition.

Catholicism is one of five state-recognized faiths in China, where religious practice is strictly controlled by the Communist Party, which asserts its supremacy over all aspects of life.

By official count, there are about 6 million Catholics in China, but the number may be higher when counting those who practice at underground churches to avoid Beijing’s watchful eye.

Francis had repeatedly expressed his wish to make a trip to China – a country no pope has ever visited. Chinese Catholics will remember him as the first pope to have ever been authorized to fly over Chinese airspace.

On his way to South Korea in 2014, Pope Frances sent a radio message to Xi when flying over China: “Upon entering Chinese airspace, I extend my best wishes to your excellency and your fellow citizens, and I invoke divine blessings of peace and wellbeing upon the nation.”

In 2023, during his visit to neighboring Mongolia, Francis made a rare move to send a “warm greeting to the noble Chinese people.”

“To the entire people I wish the best, go forward, always progress. And to the Chinese Catholics, I ask you to be good Christians and good citizens,” he said at the end of his Sunday Mass in the Mongolian capital of Ulaanbaatar.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Top 5 Remains Unchanged

The latest sector rotation analysis reveals a market that’s still playing defense. Despite some minor shuffling in the lower ranks, the top five sectors remain unchanged this week—a sign that the current defensive positioning is settling into a more stable pattern.

Consumer staples is holding its ground at the number one spot, followed by utilities, financials, communication services, and health care. This lineup underscores the market’s continued preference for defensive plays.

  1. (1) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
  2. (2) Utilities – (XLU)
  3. (3) Financials – (XLF)
  4. (4) Communication Services – (XLC)
  5. (5) Healthcare – (XLV)
  6. (6) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
  7. (8) Industrials – (XLI)*
  8. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)*
  9. (10) Materials – (XLB)*
  10. (7) Energy – (XLE)*
  11. (11) Technology – (XLK)

Weekly RRG

The weekly Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) paints a clear picture of the defensive sectors’ strength. Consumer staples and utilities are continuing to move further into the leading quadrant, solidifying their dominant positions. Healthcare, while ranked fifth, is located within the leading quadrant, but has lost some relative momentum over the past two weeks — something to keep an eye on.

Interestingly, financials and communication services, ranked third and fourth respectively, are showing signs of momentum loss, despite maintaining elevated RS ratio levels. Communication services have actually crossed into the weakening quadrant this week. At current RS-Ratio levels, this is not too concerning yet.

Daily RRG: Staples and Utilities Slightly Losing Relative Momentum

Zooming in on the daily RRG provides some nuanced insights. Staples and utilities, while still disconnected from other sectors at high RS ratio levels, have lost some relative momentum in the last week. Utilities have dipped into the weakening quadrant on this timeframe, but, given its high relative strength (RS) ratio, it’s not a major concern, at least not yet.

Financials and health care are also in the weakening quadrant on the daily RRG, but they’re flirting with the 100 level on the RS ratio scale. We haven’t seen a crossover yet, but it’s definitely a situation to be aware of.

One bright spot: communication services, despite being in the lagging quadrant, is showing signs of rolling back up. This aligns with its positive heading on the weekly RRG, suggesting potential improvement ahead.

Consumer Staples (XLP)

XLP is flexing its muscles, pushing against overhead resistance—a show of strength, given the S&P 500’s weakness. A break above the 83 area could unlock more upside potential, further cementing Staples’ defensive appeal. The relative strength line is attempting to break above horizontal resistance, dragging both RRG lines higher and pushing XLP deeper into the leading quadrant.

Utilities (XLU)

Utilities are showing a similar pattern to staples, though not quite as robust. XLU has retreated into its trading range, between roughly 73 and 80, currently sitting in the mid-range. Given the broader market weakness, this is still a positive setup for utilities. The sector is attempting to break above its relative resistance, which is propelling the RRG lines above 100 and deeper into the leading quadrant.

Financials (XLF)

Financials took a hit but found support around 42, bouncing strongly back towards the 47-47.50 resistance area. This sets up a limited upside potential, but the downside seems well-protected for now. The raw relative strength uptrend remains intact, keeping XLF in the leading quadrant, despite some leveling off of the RRG lines.

Communication Services (XLC)

XLC has been the biggest loser among the top sectors, breaking support around 95 and declining rapidly to support near 82.50. We’re currently seeing a bounce off that support. Relative strength is maintaining its rising channel, keeping the RS ratio well above 100. However, the momentum line has dipped below 100, temporarily pushing XLC into the weakening quadrant. The uptrend in relative strength is still in play, though — something to watch closely.

Health Care (XLV)

Healthcare is struggling, grappling with support between $132.50 and $135. A potential head-and-shoulders top formation is developing — a pattern we’re seeing in several sectors, to be honest. XLV is clearly the weakest of the top five, explaining its fifth-place ranking. Relative strength is struggling to maintain its upward trajectory. While both RRG lines remain above 100, we need to see a clear break in relative strength and the formation of an uptrend in order for healthcare to maintain its top-five status.

RRG Portfolio Performance

An update on our RRG portfolio of top five sectors: As of Friday’s close, the portfolio is down 10.2% year-to-date, compared to the S&P 500’s (using SPY as the benchmark) decline of 9.96%. This has resulted in a slight underperformance of 0.2%. However, it’s worth noting that we’re catching up to the benchmark after last week’s more significant underperformance — we’re on the rise again.

#StayAlert –Julius


In this video, as earnings season heats up, Mary Ellen reviews current stock market trends, highlighting top-performing stocks during past bear markets that are showing strength again today. She also shares a proven market timing system that’s signaled every stock market bottom, helping investors stay ahead of major turning points.

This video originally premiered April 18, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

The market continued to slide lower today as the bear market continues to put downside pressure on stocks in general. Bonds and Yields are at an inflection point as more buyers enter the Bond market which is driving treasury yields higher. What is the long-term outlook for Bonds? Carl gives you his thoughts.

First, Carl covered the market as a whole before discussing his long-term outlook for Bonds and Yields. Not only did he cover the SPY and its indicators, he looked at the rally in Bitcoin and the vertical rally for Gold among others. Crude Oil is pulling back again and the Dollar continues to lose strength.

After covering the market, he discusses his thoughts on Bonds. This was followed by questions.

Erin jumped in to cover sector rotation. There are clear problems and clear strength visible among the sectors, but ultimately all are struggling including defensive sectors Utilities and Real Estate. She zeroed in on the Energy sector and Consumer Staples sector “under the hood”.

Finally the pair finished by taking viewer symbol requests.

01:01 DP Signal Tables

05:03 Market Overview

13:28 Bond Discussion

17:08 Magnificent Seven

22:56 Questions

30:07 Sector Rotation

40:04 Symbol Requests


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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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In this video, market sentiment, investor psychology, and stock market trends take center stage as David Keller, CMT, shares three powerful sentiment indicators that he tracks every week. He explains how the values are derived, what the current readings say about the market environment in April 2025, and how these levels compare to past bull markets and bear markets. If you’re looking for a sentiment playbook to navigate these markets, this analysis will give you the edge.

This video originally premiered on April 21, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) remains one of the world’s most volatile and discussed stocks, with Elon Musk’s political bent having made it a lightning rod of discussion. Sales continue to fall – especially in Europe – and Musk’s personal focus seems to be on many other areas. It will be interesting to see how the numbers look and what if any guidance may be given when Tesla reports on Tuesday afternoon.

Technically, shares have made a full reversal since their post-election rally and now sit poised to move again. This is not an ideal-looking chart for the bulls, as key levels of support have been breached, the near-term trend is lower, and the long-term trend is a volatile mess.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF TESLA STOCK PRICE.

Currently, there’s a descending triangle in a near-term downtrend, with a floor around $215. It has been tested twice and held, but each rally continues to be met with strong resistance. There is more overhead resistance and work to be done to get shares on the right ascending track.

During a rally, there are three levels where sellers should take charge. The first level coincides with the current triangular downtrend line and old support, now resistance, which goes back to its pre-election breakout around $270. Then there is also the 200-day moving average just over $290. Lastly, there is the downtrend from the recent highs at the $300 level.

Momentum favors the bears on any rally, and weakness could plunge the stock towards its August 2024 lows around $180. It is not an ideal risk/reward set-up going into the numbers. Both key momentum indicators — relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) — appear to be stalling, which makes this stock one to avoid despite all the news it may cause later this week.

Service Now (NOW)

ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) shares have been decimated since reporting earnings last January. The software company, the fourth-largest company in the iShares Tech-Software ETF (IGV), looks to rebound when it reports earnings after the close on April 23.

Technically, recent price action is showing signs of a bottom, and the risk/reward set-up is getting clear.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF SERVICE NOW.

The sell-off reached a crescendo after “Liberation Day” and snapped back to levels that set up a plan of attack as we go into this week’s earnings. Shares reached extreme oversold conditions on both the MACD and RSI readings before hitting recent lows. Price action on the biggest move lower showed a divergence in both indicators, and didn’t confirm that last move down.

There are two bullish divergences after a severe drawdown, which is a positive. The Fibonacci retracement levels from the beginning of the bull market to its recent peak also show a positive development. The sell-off found support right at the 61.8% “golden ratio” level, which coincided with prior support going back to the lows of 2024.

Momentum is turning, a floor seems to be apparent, and we have something to reverse – all good signs for a bull case. While the moves are rather wide, targets to the downside look to be set just above $675.

To the upside, a simple mean reversion takes shares back to their declining 50-day moving average just above $865. If it breaks above there, watch for a test of the 200-day moving average, which is another $60 higher.

If you were to believe that a solid number is coming on Wednesday afternoon, as it has in all but one quarter going back to 2018 (last quarter they missed), then it may be a good entry point to capture the upside. However, as it sits in the middle of a range, it’s more of a coin flip here. Currently, it looks as though we have a sell-off that should be bought and a rally that should be faded.

One thing we do know is that it will be interesting to see if the stock can try to recapture its longer-term uptrend in a rather tricky tape.

Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL)

Alphabet (GOOGL) continues to make headlines as it deals with ongoing litigation in Washington and competition from search engines like ChatGPT. Shares have been under pressure all year and are at a fork in the road coming into their Thursday numbers.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF GOOGL STOCK.

We kept this weekly chart as simple as possible to show this “fork-in-the-road” scenario. At the end of 2024, the chart completed a beautiful saucer bottom pattern and broke out. It almost achieved its upside targets around $220, but fell just short.

Then it broke down.

After its initial breakout, GOOGL rallied and paused. Price faded back to test old resistance after its initial leg higher. That level of old resistance became support, in textbook fashion. Shares rallied from there to make new all-time highs; then, they failed again.

Now, GOOGL sits at a key level that was tested once last week and held. Shares never closed below the key support area around $150. That sets traders up with a risk/reward scenario that seems favorable, for now. Anyone buying the stock here has two levels from which to cut their losses if price were to break down from here.

Watch the recent intraday lows at $140.50 and then the rising 200-week moving average at $136. If it closes below there, you should exit the stock and wait for a better entry point. 

To the upside, there is smooth sailing to the 50-week moving average just above $172. It may take a strong beat and guide in this macro environment to push much higher, but the lines are set as we head into this busy week of earnings.