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For decades, popcorn has been a staple of the movie theater experience and exhibitors’ bottom lines. Now, the receptacle it comes in is becoming just as important.

As recently as three years ago, AMC Entertainment didn’t sell any merchandise. Last year it hawked novelty popcorn buckets, drink sippers and T-shirts to the tune of about $65 million in revenue.

“It started with us in a big way with our own movie, ‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour,’ that we released in October of 2023 and we sold just an incredible number of popcorn buckets,” said AMC CEO Adam Aron. “That sparked us to do it almost all the time … just literally every month.”

Other theater chains like Cinemark, Marcus, Regal and B&B Theatres have also embraced popcorn buckets, using these specialty items to drive concession purchases, create a sense of urgency to see big movies on opening weekend and add value to the theatrical experience.

“Post-Covid, we realized that the eventizing of cinema has never really been as important as it is now,” said Paul Farnsworth, executive director of communication and content at B&B Theatres. “We recognized during that time that the greatest casualty for our industry was people just fell out of the habit of going to movies.”

Hollywood production issues led to fewer theatrical releases and smaller ticket sales in 2024, with box office receipts down 3.4% from 2023 to $8.74 billion. Farnsworth noted that unique popcorn buckets can add value to a customer’s trip to the movies and creates a memory of the trip that can be taken home, propped up on a display shelf or repurposed for movie nights in.

“It is very good for the bottom line,” he said. “The big value for us is that people come in and there’s these fun things they get to take home and they’re taking pictures with them in the theater. There’s immense value in that.”

For Cinemark, the proof of concept came with the release of “Scream VI” in 2023.

“We made a ‘Scream’ popcorn bucket and it completely caught us by surprise,” said Sean Gamble, CEO of Cinemark. “This thing just had this huge uptake. We sold out of the thing immediately and we were basically selling them to people online afterwards.”

Commemorative popcorn buckets have long been a part of theme park merchandising, driving revenue of the likes of Disney and Universal both domestically and internationally. However, U.S.-based movie theaters were late to adopt the trend.

Marketing and merchandise company Zinc has been designing and manufacturing branded popcorn buckets and drink sippers for over a decade internationally, but turned its attention stateside in 2016.

“Theaters were reticent because the cups didn’t fit in the holders,” said Rod Mason, vice president of business development at Zinc Group, one of the biggest players in the premium popcorn space.

A shift came in 2019 with an R2-D2 popcorn bucket created for “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” Mason said.

“AMC took a punt on it,” he explained. “They took multiple tens of thousands of pieces. They sold through it in about three or four days at an incredibly high price. Nothing like that had ever been done before, and it was like ‘OK, well, this works.’”

A revamped version of the droid popcorn bucket was re-released for the 25th anniversary screenings of “Star Wars: Episode 1 — A Phantom Menace.”

The popcorn bucket and drink cup combo sold for $49.99.

However, the true watershed moment for the niche market came nearly five years later with a now-infamous popcorn bucket in honor of “Dune: Part Two,” released in last March. The bucket was modeled after the sandworms featured in the film but inspired crude comparisons to an adult product.

“The beauty of the ‘Dune’ bucket was it just wasn’t intended to be viral,” Mason said.

The $24.99 bucket sold out and found momentum on secondary markets. Receipts from eBay show these popcorn buckets sold for between $50 and $210 apiece on the reseller site.

“The popularity of the popcorn buckets on social media combined with the perception of limited supply of the popcorn buckets leads to a feeling of ‘fear of missing out’ among consumers who are driven to buy the buckets when [they] see them available,” said Lindsay Brookshier, content director at online Disney guide MickeyVist.com.

The “Dune” bucket inspired “Deadpool & Wolverine” actor and producer Ryan Reynolds to design a cheeky popcorn bucket for the release of his film.

“Years from now they will look back at 2024 as when the War of the Popcorn Buckets began,” Reynolds wrote on X to promote the concession container, which was shaped like Wolverine’s head with its mouth wide open to house the popcorn.

The $29.99 bucket was exclusively available at AMC and was released the same weekend as San Diego Comic-Con and the “Deadpool & Wolverine” film release.

Studios and theaters have been more proactive about working with companies like Zinc to create unique popcorn buckets for moviegoers.

“It’s a very competitive business,” said Mason. “Everyone is trying to outdo, and not just the companies like us, but also the companies that are buying it. They’re trying to make sure that they have the coolest item … that competition has been magnified over the last 12 months because there’s so many eyes on this segment of the business.”

And the movie industry is about to have an influx of blockbuster titles now that production delays from the pandemic and dual Hollywood strikes are in the rearview mirror.

Following “Captain America: Brave New World,” which debuted Friday, the 2025 calendar has “Thunderbolts*,” ” Mission: Impossible: The Final Reckoning,” “How to Train Your Dragon,” “Jurassic World Rebirth,” “Superman,” “Fantastic Four: First Steps,” “Wicked: For Good,” “Zootopia 2,” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash.”

And 2026 has equally promising tie-ins for popcorn buckets with a “Super Mario Bros.” sequel, “Avengers: Doomsday,” “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” “Toy Story 5,” “Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow,” “Minions 3,” “Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping,” “Ice Age 6″ and “Shrek 5.”

“We’ve missed out on a couple,” B&B’s Farnsworth said. “We didn’t have that crazy ‘Dune’ one. But that was kind of one of the hinge points for us. It was like, ‘Alright, we really have to pay attention.’”

B&B, the fifth-largest cinema chain in America with 58 locations, still has to be very intentional about which products it offers and how many it purchases. Films like “Wicked,” with a massive built-in audience craving merchandise, are a safer bet. But theaters have a very short window to sell the specialty items.

“Unlike our normal popcorn bags, which are evergreen, if you don’t sell the [product], you’re probably not going to sell them a month after the movie,” Farnsworth said.

Meanwhile, AMC is investing more heavily.

“One of the big things that we’re doing in 2025 is we’re significantly increasing the quantities,” Aron said, noting that AMC was already placing orders for 100,000 units or more. “We’re buying, because there’s no need for us to sell out on opening day. There’s plenty of people coming to see that movie for weeks and weeks.”

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Trump Media and its fellow conservative-oriented social media company Rumble on Wednesday sued a Brazil Supreme Court justice whose clash last year with Elon Musk led to the blocking of Musk’s own social media firm, X, in that country.

The Tampa, Florida, federal court lawsuit accuses Justice Alexandre de Moraes of allegedly illegal attempts to censor a “well-known politically outspoken user” of Rumble with orders to suspend that user’s U.S.-based accounts.

The new lawsuit suit notes that Trump Media’s social media site Truth Social “relies on Rumble’s cloud-based hosting and video streaming infrastructure to deliver multimedia content to its user base.”

“If Rumble were to be shut down, that shut down would necessarily interfere with Truth Social’s operations, as well,” the suit says.

The suit was filed a day after Brazil’s prosecutor-general charged the country’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro, with an attempted coup as he tried to remain in office following his 2022 election loss. Bolsonaro — who was invited to President Donald Trump’s inauguration last month — is accused of participating in a plot with nearly three dozen other people, which allegedly planned to poison current Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and kill Moraes.

Trump had been the majority owner of Trump Media stock shares. In December, the then-president-elect transferred his entire stake of shares to a revocable trust of which he is the sole beneficiary.

The suit mentions Musk’s feud with Moraes, when the justice suspended X in Brazil for Musk’s defiance of requests to ban some user accounts and remove content that Moraes said violated the country’s laws.

Brazil’s Supreme Court also suspended bank accounts in that country of X and Starlink, the satellite internet service provider owned by Musk’s company SpaceX, as part of that battle.

Musk, who is also the CEO of Tesla, has been tasked by Trump to oversee a wide-ranging effort to cut federal government suspending and employee headcount.

Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes in a statement Wednesday on the suit said that the company “is firmly committed to upholding the right to free expression.”

“This is not just a slogan, it’s the core mission of this company,” Nunes said. “We’re proud to join our partner Rumble in standing against unjust demands for political censorship regardless of who makes them.”

Trump Media last week reported a net loss of nearly $401 million for 2024, and revenue of just $3.6 million.

The company in a statement last week said that about half of the $61 million in cash used in operating activities in 2024 “comprised legal expenses including costs related to the Company’s March 2024 merger with a special purpose acquisition company.”

“Partly as a result of obstruction by the Biden-era Securities and Exchange Commission, which turned the process into one of the longest SPAC mergers in history, [Trump Media] incurred significant legal expenses related to its merger and has brought litigation seeking to recoup its damages,” the suit said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

More than 150 whales are stranded off the coast of Tasmania, Australia, according to local authorities.

The state’s Marine Conservation Program said Tuesday a total of 157 animals had become stranded near the town of Arthur River on the west coast of the island and that initial observations showed at least 90 of them were still alive.

“We are currently assessing the situation to plan an appropriate response,” the agency said.

The animals appear to be false killer whales, according to Tasmania’s Department of Natural Resources and Environment.

The Marine Conservation Program said it was working with Tasmania Parks and Wildlife Service in response to the “mass whale stranding” and urged the public not to approach the animals.

“Stranding response in this remote area is complex. If it is determined there is a need for help from the general public, a request will be made through various avenues,” it said.

The government agency said all whales are protected species even when deceased and reminded the public that interfering with a carcass is an offense.

Animal behaviorists and marine scientists say that survival rates for beached whales is low, and the animals “can only survive for around six hours on land before they start to deteriorate.”

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A Chinese military helicopter flew within 10 feet (3 meters) of a Philippine patrol plane over the South China Sea on Tuesday, in what observers said was the second incident of potentially catastrophic behavior by the People’s Liberation Army against foreign aircraft in a week.

Tuesday’s incident was witnessed by an Associated Press reporter aboard the single-engine Cessna Caravan plane operated by the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources as it patrolled near Scarborough Shoal, an uninhabited rock about 140 miles (222 kilometers) west of the main Philippine island of Luzon.

Scarborough Shoal, which sits amid rich fishing grounds, has been effectively controlled by China since 2012 despite its location inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, according to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.

The AP report said during the approximately 30-minute encounter, the pilot of the Philippine plane warned the Chinese helicopter, “You are flying too close, you are very dangerous and endangering the lives of our crew and passengers.”

The ambassador of the United States, a defense treaty ally of Manila, condemned the “dangerous” maneuvers of the Chinese helicopter.

In a post on X, Ambassador MaryKay Carlson also called on China “to refrain from coercive actions and settle its differences peacefully in accordance with international law.”

A statement from the PLA’s Southern Theater Command said the Chinese helicopter “expelled” the Philippine plane from “China’s territorial airspace,” while saying Manila “has seriously violated China’s sovereignty.”

Tuesday’s incident followed another last week over the South China Sea between an Australian military P-8 reconnaissance jet and PLA fighter planes, during which Australia said the Chinese jets fired flares within 100 feet (30 meters) of its aircraft.

If ingested into the P-8’s jet engines, the flares could have caused catastrophic damage, analysts said.

“They could have hit our P-8 and had that occurred it would have done significant damage to our aircraft and that obviously puts in danger the lives of our personnel,” Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said on Friday.

Like the latter incident with the Philippines, the Chinese military said it expelled a foreign aircraft that was intruding into Chinese airspace, in this case over the Xisha Islands, also called the Paracel Islands.

Beijing claims “indisputable sovereignty” over almost all of the 1.3-million-square-mile South China Sea, and most of the islands and sandbars within it, including many features that are hundreds of miles from mainland China. As well as the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan also hold competing claims.

Potentially dangerous incidents between Chinese and foreign aircraft over the South China Sea are nothing new, with several reported over the past several years between not only Australian and Philippine craft but also those of the US and Canada, who all say they operate in international airspace.

But the two latest incidents in less than a week are raising fears Beijing may be becoming more assertive in enforcing its disputed claims while the attention of the US – a defense treaty ally of the Philippines, Australia and Canada – is focused on the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East.

“China sees that the Trump administration is focused on other theaters and calculates that this is the time to turn the ratchet up in East Asia while America is distracted elsewhere,” said Ray Powell, director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation.

“Beijing is following a familiar pattern of gradual escalation,” Powell said.

“Its goal is to normalize its aggressions at ever-greater levels, so that over time they become accepted and discounted as the normal cost of doing business in contested areas.”

Adm. Samuel Paparo, the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, told a forum in Hawaii last week that China is using similar “gray zone” tactics around the democratic island of Taiwan, which is claimed by Beijing, and which Chinese leader Xi Jinping has vowed to bring under the Communist Party’s control.

Numerous Chinese military aircraft and maritime vessels operate around Taiwan daily.

“Their aggressive maneuver around Taiwan right now are not exercises, as they call them. They are rehearsals. They are rehearsals for the forced unification of Taiwan to the mainland,” Paparo told the Honolulu Defense Forum last week.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

In the 10th row of Delta Flight 4819, Pete Carlson rested in the window seat just before landing at Toronto Pearson International Airport on Monday afternoon, thinking about friends he would see at a paramedics conference where he was scheduled to speak.

John Nelson, another passenger in the 10th row of the CRJ900 twin-jet aircraft, remembered the flight and descent over Canada’s largest city as typical except for “super gusty” winds blowing snow over the runways.

The Delta flight, on a trip from Minneapolis, was cleared for Runway 23 under a westerly wind, with gusts up to 38 miles per hour. “Might be a slight bump in the glide path,” an air traffic controller said. “There will be an aircraft in front of you.”

“Clear to land, Endeavor 4819,” the pilot responded, referring to Delta’s Endeavor Air, the subsidiary which operated the regional jet arriving about 2:15 p.m local time Monday on the snow-covered runway. The wind sent snow swirling into the air, limiting visibility to five miles.

Then everything changed.

The jet came down hard and fast. Flames erupted around the rear landing gear, followed by a growing fire ball shrouded by a rising trail of black smoke, according to video from the scene. The right wing was sheared off as the plane rolled on its back along a tundra-like landscape.

In seconds, the lives of the 80 people on board would be upended – literally – with passengers hanging upside down, their seatbelts preventing them from crashing down. Jet fuel cascaded like rain over the windows. Somehow, all those on board survived, though 21 people were taken to hospitals with injuries.

‘We were upside down, hanging like bats’

Pete Koukov, another passenger, said he “didn’t know anything was the matter” until the hard landing.

He took video showing some passengers, still strapped to their seats, on the overturned jet.

Nelson called it “mass chaos.”

“I was upside down. The lady next to me was upside down,” he said. “We kind of let ourselves go and fell to hit the ceiling – which was a surreal feeling. And then everybody was just like, ‘Get out! Get out! Get out!’ We could smell like jet fuel.”

The two flight attendants had never landed a plane upside down, according to Sara Nelson, international president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. But they had trained for many scenarios, including evacuating passengers within 90 seconds – which they did during Monday’s emergency.

“They were heroic,” Nelson said.

A mix of black smoke and powdery snow rose over the tarmac.

“Oh, no, no, no, no, no!” said a person who took a video of the crash, watching from another plane near the runway.

“Airplane just crashed (runway) 2-3,” a pilot on another flight can be heard saying on recordings of air traffic control transmissions, which also picked up audio of a medevac helicopter that was already in the area.

“We got it in sight,” the helicopter pilot said of the downed jet.

“LifeFlight 1, medevac, just so you are aware there are people outside walking around the aircraft there,” an air traffic controller said.

“Yeah, we’ve got it. The aircraft is upside down and burning,” the medevac pilot responded.

Outside the plane, passengers shot video and photos with cellphone cameras as firefighters tried to douse the flames.

Carlson remembered the powerful sound created by the crash of tens of thousands of pounds of metal against snow-covered concrete.

“The absolute initial feeling is, ‘Just need to get out of this,’” he told CBC.

He unfastened his seatbelt and crashed down onto the plane’s ceiling, now the floor. He didn’t sense panic or fear around him. Instead, Carlson said, everyone on the plane “suddenly became very close” – helping and consoling each other.

“What now?” he remembered thinking. “Who’s leading?”

Row by row, passengers and crew members checked on one another. They made sure people would not fall on others once their seatbelts were unfastened. As a father and a paramedic, Carlson said, he instinctively focused on getting a young boy and his mother who were sitting on the ceiling safely off the plane. The smell of fuel grew stronger.

“You can listen to the preflight all you want but when you’re suddenly upside down, rolled over, everything kind of goes out the door,” he told CBC. Hours after the flight, he still reeked of plane fuel. He wasn’t sure how he got a gash on his head.

‘It’s amazing that we’re still here’

Carlson stepped outside the plane. He recalled marveling at the “amazing” response of police officers, firefighters and paramedics on the scene.

It felt like he was “stepping out onto the tundra,” Carlson told CBC, as he and others helped passengers onto the snow-swept tarmac. The injured were taken away by bus. A triage area was set up at a safe distance from the plane.

“There was a wing there before and when we went out that exit, there was no wing to be found,” he recalled.

In fact, the wing breaking free likely kept the fire out of the passenger cabin, said Joe Jacobsen, an aerospace engineer who has worked for Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration.

When a wing rips off entirely on impact, it ditches potentially explosive fuel, said Michael McCormick, an associate professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, noting that fuel used to be stored in the belly of the aircraft.

Other design factors came into play as well. Most modern commercial aircraft are required to have 16G seats – meaning they can withstand 16 times the force of gravity, McCormick said. The seats, designed for durability rather than comfort, are less likely to come apart in an accident.

Carlson was thankful to walk away from the crash.

“I didn’t care how cold it was,” Carlson told CBC. “I didn’t care how far I had to walk, how long I had to stand. All of us wanted to just be out of the aircraft.”

At one point, Carlson removed his coat and put it over the shoulders of the mother with the young son. He snapped a photo of the overturned plane with his phone, and sent a copy to a paramedic friend, who was at the airport to pick him up.

“I simply sent it, saying this is my reality right now,” he said. “Down on the tarmac but alive, which, again, is really amazing.”

The friend and colleague, Renfrew County, Ontario, Paramedic Chief Mike Nolan, saw a huge plume of black smoke rise from the center of the runway and immediately texted Carlson, the keynote speaker at the conference in Toronto this week.

In the end, Carlson said, it was “just people – no countries, nothing … together helping each other.”

Koukov said he felt lucky and happy. He gave a big hug to the person who had been sitting next to him on the flight – as he did when greeted by friends who picked him up at the airport.

Said Nelson, “It’s amazing that we’re still here.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Donald Trump of repeating disinformation, a day after the US president falsely accused Ukraine of starting the war with Russia.

Zelensky’s comments were part of what is shaping up to be far the most public exchange of accusations between Kyiv and Washington since the full-scale war started nearly three years ago.

Speaking to reporters in Kyiv, Zelensky pushed back on several unfounded claims the US president made on Tuesday, while reinforcing Ukraine’s position that no deal on ending the war could be done without it.

“Unfortunately, President Trump – I have great respect for him as a leader of a nation that we have great respect for, the American people who always support us – unfortunately lives in this disinformation space,” Zelensky said.

US and Russian officials held high-level talks on ending the war in Ukraine in the Saudi capital of Riyadh on Tuesday, a meeting from which Kyiv was excluded.

The two sides agreed to appoint high-level teams to negotiate the end of the war and said they were working to reestablish diplomatic channels.

Zelensky said that while any country has the right to discuss bilateral issues with Saudi Arabia, the fact that the US held direct talks with Russia “helped Putin out of his long isolation.” Russia has been banished from the global stage since the war began.

It was Kyiv’s complaint about being shut out of the talks that sparked Trump’s tirade of falsehoods on Tuesday.

Speaking late on Tuesday, Trump said: “Today I heard, ‘Oh well, we weren’t invited. Well, you been there for three years. You should’ve ended it after three years. You should’ve never started it. You could’ve made a deal.”

The incorrect claim that Ukraine somehow started the war has long been repeated by the Kremlin and its supporters. The conflict began in 2014, when Russia illegally annexed Crimea, the southern Ukrainian peninsula, and began sponsoring pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Moscow then launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, attacking its smaller neighbor at night, sending tanks across the border, bombing Ukrainian cities and sending special forces into Kyiv to assassinate Zelensky.

Zelensky hits back

But Trump did not stop at questioning who started the war in Ukraine. Repeating another line often pushed by the Kremlin, Trump appeared to question Zelensky’s legitimacy.

“We have a situation where we haven’t had elections in Ukraine, where we have martial law,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort, incorrectly claiming that Zelensky’s approval rating was “at 4%.”

Zelensky won more than 73% of the vote in the second round of the 2019 presidential election. While his mandate was meant to end last May, a new election was not held because Ukraine has been under martial law since Russia launched its unprovoked invasion of the country. The martial law prohibits elections.

Speaking on Wednesday, Zelensky specifically said the claim that his approval rating was at 4% comes from Russia, and that Kyiv has some evidence that the numbers were discussed between the US and Russia.

He pointed to a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) earlier this month which showed that while his popularity dropped significantly since the early days of the war, his approval rate has never dropped below 50% and currently stands at 57%.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Romania’s foreign minister said he had not come under pressure from US President Donald Trump’s envoy to lift restrictions on social media influencer Andrew Tate, who faces human trafficking charges, despite them discussing the case.

The Financial Times reported on Monday, citing sources, that US officials had brought up the case of Tate and his brother Tristan, both former kickboxers with dual US and British citizenship, in a phone call to the Romanian government.

It said Trump’s special envoy Richard Grenell followed up with Foreign Minister Emil Hurezeanu at the Munich Security Conference. A source told the FT a request was made to return the brothers’ passports and allow them to travel while they wait for court proceedings to conclude.

The brothers are banned from leaving Romania pending a criminal investigation on accusations of forming an organized criminal group, human trafficking, trafficking of minors, sexual intercourse with a minor and money laundering. They have denied all wrongdoing.

Tate, the highest profile suspect facing trial for human trafficking in Romania, was banned from almost all social media platforms before Trump’s now adviser Elon Musk took over X and reinstated his account.

Hurezeanu told Euronews late on Tuesday he had had an informal chat with Grenell in a hallway during the Munich conference. Hurezeanu cited Grenell as saying he remained interested in the fate of the Tate brothers.

“I did not perceive this statement as pressure, just a repeat of a known stance,” Hurezeanu said.

“I don’t know what pressures of another nature were made before or after but what I discussed with Mr. Grenell was cordial, informal, brief, non-binding and I certainly did not detect any form of pressure.”

A first criminal case against Tate and his brother failed in December when a Bucharest court decided not to start the trial, citing flaws in the indictment.

A Romanian court lifted a house arrest order against Tate in January, replacing it with a lighter preventative measure. In October, a court ruled he should get back luxury cars worth about 4 million euros ($4.43 million) that were seized by prosecutors, pending the investigations.

In Munich last week US Vice President JD Vance took a swipe at European governments for what he described as their censorship of free speech and their political opponents and specifically mentioned the cancellation of Romania’s presidential election based on what he said was flimsy evidence.

Romania’s top court ordered a rerun of the vote following suspicion of Russian interference in favor of the unexpected first round winner, the pro-Russian far-right Calin Georgescu. Russia denied any interference in Romania’s election campaigns.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

It was another mildly bullish week as our major indices climbed very close to new, fresh all-time highs. We also saw a return to growth stocks as we approached breakout levels, which is a good signal as far as rally sustainability goes. Despite this, there remain reasons to be cautious and I’ll point out a couple of those reasons below.

Negative Divergences

The S&P 500 ($SPX) and NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) both seem to be losing bullish price momentum on their respective weekly charts, which can be seen below:

$SPX

$NDX

The price momentum on both indices is slowing and eerily similar to late 2021, just before the cyclical bear market of 2022. Let me be clear that I do NOT believe we’re heading into a cyclical bear market. I don’t see that extent of potential weakness ahead. I do see increased risks of a 5-10% drop, however, and that’s why I’m cautious.

Is This Current Rally Truly Sustainable?

Sometimes a little common sense and perspective goes a very long way. Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has averaged gaining 9% per year. So when you go through short-term periods that show gains well in excess of that 9% average, you should at least be thinking there’s the risk that the S&P 500 will fall back and “reversion to the mean”, which is a mathematical concept that describes the tendency of extreme results to move closer to the average. We’ve seen a tremendous rally since the summer correction of 2023. Let’s look at the last 68 weeks (since the correction low in late-October 2023) of return on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 and compare it to the history of 68-week rates of change (ROC) to gain a sense of this current rally and its sustainability:

$SPX

$NDX

You can look at these two charts and make your own judgement and draw your own conclusions, but, outside of the late-1990s, 68-week ROCs above 50% on the S&P 500 and 60% on the NASDAQ 100 suggest a short-term pullback is more likely, not guaranteed.

Now The Good News

While bullish price action and momentum may seem to be slowing, the long-term monthly PPO on both of these indices is definitely on the rise, which, in my view, limits any short-term downside to the 20-month EMA. I’ll just show the S&P 500 monthly chart, but this will highlight the likelihood that any future selling, if it occurs (no guarantee), holds 20-month EMA support:

$SPX

This chart takes us back 25 years to the turn of the century. The yellow areas highlight poor (below zero) or declining PPOs. During these periods, I’d ignore 20-month EMA support and be cautious. However, the blank periods highlight a rising monthly PPO, during which we rarely see price fall below the rising 20-month EMA. This is where we currently stand. Most pullbacks over the last 25 years, when the monthly PPO is above zero and rising, have fallen short of actual 20-month EMA tests. In other words, we should view a 20-month EMA test as a “worst case” scenario.

The next market decline should be viewed as an OUTSTANDING opportunity to enter this secular bull market.

Stick With Strength

Since we began rolling out our Portfolios quarterly, we’ve had to overcome cyclical bear markets in Q4 2018 (trade war), March 2020 (pandemic), and the first 9-10 months of 2022 (rising inflation and rising interest rates), and a 3-month correction during the summer of 2023. We’ve remained fully invested and have CRUSHED the S&P 500. In fact, below is a graph that highlights our Model Portfolio performance since its inception in November 2018 (in the middle of the trade war!) through the end of January 2025:

We’ve demonstrated the best way to beat the S&P 500, which is to invest in leading relative strength stocks. It’s the only proven method that’s worked for us at EarningsBeats.com. We “draft” our 10 favorite relative strength stocks in various sectors and industry groups and hold them for one entire earnings cycle, then rinse and repeat. Our last quarter’s “draft” picks have annihilated the S&P 500, +15.15% vs. 3.34%.

You can check out our Model Portfolio holdings for the last 3 months below:

8 of our 10 Model Portfolio stocks outperformed the S&P 500, a few by a very wide margin. Owning relative strength stocks like PLTR, CLS, and TPR will completely carry a portfolio and lead to outstanding returns.

Our “quarterly” results are calculated over the following periods:

  • February 19 – May 19
  • May 19 – August 19
  • August 19 – November 19
  • November 19 – February 19

The reason we calculate our quarterly returns using the above time periods is that we select our stocks each quarter on February 19, May 19, August 19, and November 19. By the time we reach these dates, most key market-moving companies have reported their quarterly results and fundamental data like earnings is factored into our portfolio selections just as much as technical considerations. That fundamental/technical combination is one factor that separates us from others and we do this because my background is public accounting. I don’t stray far from my core beliefs. I believe management’s execution of their business strategies/plan and beating revenue and EPS estimates is a huge component of its stock’s upside potential.

On Monday, February 17th, we’re holding our next DRAFT. We will be announcing the 10-equal weighted stocks in each of our portfolios designed to beat the S&P 500 over the next 3-month period. You’re quite welcome to join us. It might change your way of investing and improve your results immediately. CLICK HERE for more information and to register!

Happy trading!

Tom

MADISON, Wis. — Early voting kicked off in this battleground state this week with computer delays and long lines.

Voters waited as long as three hours Tuesday to cast ballots in West Bend, a city of about 32,000, city clerk Jilline Dobratz said. State computer issues reared up again Wednesday, and by midafternoon, voters had to wait about 90 minutes to vote in the community 40 miles northwest of Milwaukee, she said. Residents were not used to anything like it.

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A former deputy Palm Beach County sheriff who fled to Moscow and became one of the Kremlin’s most prolific propagandists is working directly with Russian military intelligence to pump out deepfakes and circulate misinformation that targets Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, according to Russian documents obtained by a European intelligence service and reviewed by The Washington Post.

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