Republicans are set to flip the Senate for the first time this cycle in this week’s Fox News Power Rankings. 

Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a small post-debate bump, three new toss-up races emerge in the House, and the GOP loses ground on the governor’s map.

Harris comes out stronger from the first debate

Two weeks after their first debate, Harris is up a point and former President Donald Trump is down the same in an average of high-quality polls.

If those numbers sound familiar, it is because they match the shifts after the first debate between President Biden and Trump four years ago.

That could be a problem for Republicans. In 2020, Trump did not narrow the polling gap that the first debate created until a stronger showing in the second. As of today, Harris and Trump have not agreed on terms for a rematch.

Harris’ improvement comes from independents more than any other group. They backed Trump by eight points in a Fox News survey last month but now prefer Harris by 12. Biden won independents by 15 points in the last election, so an enduring Harris lead in this group could give her an edge on election night. (Poll results among subgroups can be volatile.)

The same post-debate poll has Trump down two points among all voters, leaving the former president at 48% and Harris at 50%. A spread like that on election night gives Trump an electoral college advantage.

Further slippage in support for the former president would change that math.

Republicans are poised to control the Senate

Republicans have enjoyed a head start in the Senate from the beginning of this cycle. Their star candidate in Montana is doing more than anyone to get them to the finish line.

The latest forecast predicts Republicans will take at least 51 seats on election night, while Democrats are expected to take at least 47. That leaves two races in the Toss Up category.

Montana moves out of that category this week.

This state has been represented for nearly two decades by Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, one of the last rural Democrats, who has leaned on his farming background and gun rights advocacy to exceed expectations in three elections. 

However, Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020, and Tester faces a strong opponent in businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. He has run an efficient, disciplined campaign on the economy and the border. 

That makes Montana a better pickup opportunity for the GOP than Ohio, which does not lean toward Trump as much as its western neighbor and where Republican candidate Bernie Moreno has made missteps on the trail.

Sheehy leads with 51% to Tester’s 45% in an AARP poll conducted in late August. The incumbent Democrat is ahead among independents, but that is not enough to overcome this conservative electorate.

Sitting among the peaks that shape Montana’s landscape is a mountain of cash. Over $121 million has been spent by the campaigns and outside groups so far, according to OpenSecrets, with at least $100 million more in reserved spending. That is an extraordinary sum for a race that isn’t competitive at the presidential level and equates to more than $150 per registered voter.

That is what keeps this race tight. Tester has more than three times as much cash on hand as Sheehy, giving the Democrat spending money for local advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts.

If that cash can push this race back within the margin of error, Democrats have a shot at retaining the upper house.

Montana moves from Toss Up to Lean R.

With 22 toss-up races, the House is up for grabs

The House is still a toss-up in the latest forecast. In fact, with three more races joining that category, it is less clear than ever which direction the lower chamber will take.

California’s 45th district: President Biden won this southern California district by six points last cycle (Dave’s Redistricting), but its heavy and right-leaning Asian American population makes it highly competitive. Republicans are pouring money into the race to protect incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel, whose position on abortion could be an issue with Los Angeles-area voters. She faces Democratic lawyer Derek Tran. This race moves from Lean R to Toss Up.

Iowa’s 1st district: A recent Des Moines Register survey showing Harris four points behind Trump raised eyebrows in the Iowa presidential race. It could have a downballot impact as well. Second-term GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by six votes in 2020, and while redistricting gave her a more comfortable win in the midterms, she remains vulnerable in this Davenport and Iowa City district. Former State Representative Christina Bohannan is the Democratic candidate. Iowa’s 1st district moves from Likely R to Toss Up.

Nebraska’s 2nd district: This Omaha-centered district has been represented by Republican Rep. Don Bacon since 2017. Bacon and the district made news last week when he signed a letter calling for Nebraska to become a ‘winner-take-all’ state before the presidential election. The gamble would have helped Trump if it had succeeded, but calling for the change could put Bacon in danger with some of the centrist voters he has relied on in previous elections. He faces Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas. This district moves from Lean R to Toss Up.

Republicans run from Robinson in North Carolina

Finally, a sleepy gubernatorial cycle had its wake-up call last Thursday when CNN reported that North Carolina Republican Lt. Gov Mark Robinson referred to himself as a ‘Black Nazi’ on a porn website he frequented between 2008 and 2012. He denied the report.

Robinson is more than embattled in this race. At least four senior staffers have resigned from his campaign, allies have jumped ship, and the Republican Governors Association is not spending another dollar on advertising. 

No one knows how this will impact Trump. Voting has begun with Robinson’s name a few rows down from Trump’s on the ballot, and Democrats are reminding voters about the strong, consistent praise that the former president has offered Robinson. However, calcified support for Trump among Republicans and the state’s history of ticket splitting should keep him competitive. 

In the meantime, the Power Rankings already had the governor’s race at Lean D because of previous Robinson scandals. Now, it moves to Likely D.

Voting underway with six weeks to go until election day

Voting has begun in 21 states, including Wisconsin, North Carolina, Minnesota and Virginia. By the end of the month, more than half of all states will send ballots to voters.

While many voters are expected to cast a ballot early, election day itself is only six weeks away. 

Next week, vice presidential hopefuls Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, will participate in a debate hosted by CBS News in New York City. Fox News will simulcast the debate with special coverage anchored by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Fox News Media has proposed a second Harris-Trump debate to be moderated by MacCallum and Baier in October.

The Iranians have made their choice in our presidential election and, no surprise, it is Kamala Harris. 

After four years of reversing our policy of maximum pressure and instead coddling Iran and allowing them to enrich their economy with oil sales and direct U.S. cash transfers, the Biden administration has endeared itself to one of the most anti-democratic regimes in the world. 

The payback? A hack of the Trump campaign by the Iranians fed directly to Biden-Harris campaign operatives. 

Foreign meddling in our elections is nothing short of an attack on our democracy, yet the Biden-Harris administration is once again proving it is unequipped to defend America. By favoring a weak response rather than one that punishes our adversaries, they invite further attacks and, if anything, threaten to undermine the rights of the American people and our very democracy. 

The Democrats cast themselves as the supposed protectors of democracy? Perhaps more accurately, they are the protectors of autocrats and dictators. 

Last week, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released a joint statement acknowledging that the Iranian regime has been working to undermine former President Trump’s re-election campaign in several different ways. 

This follows reports that China and Russia have also been pushing their own influence efforts affecting both national races and down-ballot elections across the country. 

This threat goes far beyond deep-fake videos and ‘memes’ on X, and it is a bipartisan issue. During the 2022 midterm elections, the Chinese Communist Party sought to undermine or support certain candidates – on both sides of the aisle – depending on their policy positions around China and Taiwan, and this same thing is occurring in our current elections. 

As Iran continues to wage war across the Middle East against American interests, it is focusing its efforts to ensure Harris and the Democrats’ absurd policies of Iranian appeasement remain in the Oval Office – even going so far as to try and assassinate President Trump, as well as former Trump officials.  

The Kremlin, meanwhile, has developed a sophisticated and deep network through which to push its propaganda into every corner of the American media. The real threat to our democracy is from these nefarious foreign actors, and it could come through much worse acts than a few memes or mean tweets on the internet.   

I saw these threats up close during the Trump administration’s tenure, and we responded to them by taking actions that reinforced a model of deterrence which kept Americans safe. 

During my time as secretary of state, we shut down the largest spy ring in American history when we kicked the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) out of their consulate in Houston, which they had been using to coordinate massive levels of industrial espionage and intellectual property theft. 

Confucius Institutes pushing CCP propaganda had proliferated on college campuses; we responded by designating the organization that ran them as a foreign mission, which led to the closure of nearly every Confucius Institute in America. 

We didn’t tolerate Iran’s attacks and influence peddling within America; we put maximum pressure on the regime, nearly bankrupted it by driving its oil exports down to around 400,000 barrels a day, and took out Qasem Soleimani, its top general. 

In short, we established deterrence with America’s adversaries using every tool at our disposal and made sure that our adversaries understood no interference in our elections would be tolerated or go without retribution.

Unfortunately, the Biden-Harris administration has proved unequal to the task of defending America. Within months of them taking office, Russian-aligned groups successfully attacked the Colonial pipeline, which carries gas to communities all across the Southeastern United States. Biden’s response? He said that 16 potential sectors of our economy were ‘off limits’ while leaving many more open to future attacks. 

In response to Iran’s belligerence and threats, the Biden-Harris team went right back to negotiating a new nuclear deal, making ransom payments, and appeasing the regime. Iran’s oil exports hit a five-year high in 2024, with over 1.5 million barrels of oil a day being exported to China. 

This economic windfall has gone right into funding Iran’s terror network and is a direct cause of the Oct. 7 attacks – as well as Iran’s fomenting of antisemitic vitriol on our college campuses.  So much for establishing deterrence and keeping America safe.  

It gets worse. In 2020, the Biden campaign openly lied about the Hunter Biden laptop, enlisting over 50 former national security officials and the mainstream media in their false narrative that it was ‘Russian disinformation.’ 

In 2019, Kamala Harris stated that ‘if you profit off of hate, if you act as a megaphone for misinformation or cyber warfare, if you don’t police your platforms, we are going to hold you accountable as a community.’ By ‘you,’ she meant American citizens and companies, and by ‘community,’ she meant entrenched bureaucrats in the federal government deciding what Americans can and can’t say. 

More recently, her running mate, Tim Walz, stated that our Constitution provides ‘no guarantee to free speech.’ It is a good thing Walz taught geography and not civics. His understanding of our First Amendment is severely lacking.

The truth is that our adversaries have always and will always look for opportunities to hurt America, whether at home or abroad, and these alarming influence efforts are no exception. 

To keep them from doing so, we don’t need an ever-expanding set of safeguards enforced by the federal bureaucracy, and we should always resist undermining our constitutional freedoms in order to respond to foreign threats.  

Instead, we should remember that the only valid response to attacks from the likes of Iran, Russia and China is to establish deterrence. We should impose enormous costs on them. 

Only Donald Trump has shown he has the capacity and will to actually do this, and if the American people wish to keep our country safe and strong in an increasingly dangerous world, they should vote for him in November. 

As Senator Mitch McConnell approaches the finish line on his record-setting tenure as Senate Republican leader, histories of his outsized impact on American policy and politics are already being written. One can’t overstate his accomplishments on issues ranging from the judiciary to the tax code to foreign policy, and commentators will rightly focus on those successes. 

But another, smaller part of Minority Leader McConnell’s legacy also warrants special attention. From the time he was a junior senator, he has been the single greatest champion for free speech in political campaigns in America. And while McConnell may have lost a few fights during his tenure, I believe he ultimately won the campaign finance wars. 

McConnell’s views on campaign finance were forged by his first runs for elected office. As he wrote in his memoir, ‘I never would have been able to win my race if there had been a limit on the amount of money I could raise and spend.’ He understands that the Constitution’s framers saw political speech — especially speech about elections and candidates for office — as the core of the First Amendment, and he has put that belief into action when it came to legislation to restrict political campaigning.  

To understand McConnell’s dogged commitment to the cause of free speech, one need look no further than his battle against the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 (BCRA). Pushed by Republican Senator John McCain and Democrat Senator Russ Feingold, the bill imposed a raft of new campaign finance regulations and restrictions on political speech.  

During its debate, McConnell led the opposition, arguing that the legislation ‘severely restricts the groups which average citizens join to express themselves: issue advocacy groups and political parties’ and ‘violates our First Amendment rights.’ 

After failing to block the bill’s passage, McConnell didn’t give up. Instead, he walked out of the Senate chamber and down Constitution Avenue to the federal courthouse, where he filed one of the first lawsuits challenging the new law. That case made it up to the Supreme Court as McConnell v. FEC, a decision the senator narrowly lost in a fractured 5-4 opinion, largely upholding the legislation. 

Losing an eponymous Supreme Court case would persuade most to throw in the towel. But not McConnell. Instead, he immediately set about laying the groundwork for a comeback, beginning with the judiciary and the Federal Election Commission. 

Understanding that personnel is policy, McConnell pushed commissioners and judicial nominees committed to the First Amendment who could impact how BCRA was implemented and constitutionally reviewed.  

The results were almost immediate. Beginning in 2006, the Supreme Court and lower courts issued a series of decisions invalidating provisions of BCRA as unconstitutional, the most important being Citizens United v. FEC. In nearly every one of those Supreme Court decisions, the Court received an amicus curiae brief from McConnell urging it to strike down various parts of the law. 

Over the same period, the FEC — the agency tasked with enforcing campaign finance law — resisted overbroad regulation and belligerent enforcement thanks to its Republican appointees. In fact, over the last several years, the Republican commissioners, joined by Democratic colleagues, have made significant progress rolling back regulations. As one advocate for stricter speech regulation recently bemoaned in the New York Times: ‘It is breathtaking the speed with which the rules are being torn down.’ He can thank McConnell for that. 

Yet more and more, candidates and legal practitioners from both parties have come around to McConnell’s point of view. Lawyers for both political parties are increasingly seeking to deregulate campaign finance at the FEC and in the courts.  

After failing to block the bill’s passage, McConnell didn’t give up. Instead, he walked out of the Senate chamber and down Constitution Avenue to the federal courthouse, where he filed one of the first lawsuits challenging the new law. That case made it up to the Supreme Court as McConnell v. FEC, a decision the senator narrowly lost in a fractured 5-4 opinion, largely upholding the legislation. 

Both sides have learned to embrace big spending and light-touch regulation, free to run their campaigns without the government’s micromanagement. This new bipartisan consensus is a far cry from McCain and Feingold’s vision of a tightly controlled campaign finance system, and it shows no signs of ending soon. 

It’s a consistent theme throughout his career: Senator McConnell played the long game. Among his many accomplishments, he should be proud to have always stood up for the First Amendment, even when it wasn’t popular. His decades-long battle against overregulating political speech embodies British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s aphorism that you may have to fight a battle more than once to win it. America’s democracy and constitutional freedoms are better off because he did. 

In an address to the 79th United Nations General Assembly Tuesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed to be the one playing peacemaker in the Middle East and, in a juxtaposition, accused Israel of supporting terrorism.

Pezeshkian called on the U.N. to ‘examine’ modern history and said, ‘Iran has never initiated a war. It has only defended itself heroically against external aggression, causing the aggressors to regret their actions,’ Pezeshkian said, adding that Iran does not ‘occupy’ territory or exploit resources for other countries. 

‘It has repeatedly offered various proposals to its neighbors and international fora aimed at establishing lasting peace and stability,’ he said. ‘We have emphasized the importance of unity in the region and establishing a strong region.’

Iran’s claims of playing peacemaker in the Middle East are in stark contrast to its repeated involvement in proxy wars across the region, in which it has been heavily involved in Syria and Yemen, drawing deeper the lines of division between it and other powerful Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

But Iran’s deep involvement in the Middle East extends to one other area not generally endeavored by a nation state — terrorism. 

While Pezeshkian claimed from the podium Tuesday that Israel both ‘covertly and overtly’ supports the Islamic State, Tehran is widely known to have not only backed terrorist organizations ardently opposed to Israel like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, but it has also helped build bridges between the Taliban and al Qaeda, providing the terrorist networks with arms, funding and even safe haven.

‘The Islamic Republic of Iran seeks to safeguard its own security, not to create insecurity for others,’ Pezeshkian also claimed. ‘We want peace for all, and seek no war or quarrel with anyone.’

Iran, which has also increasingly aligned itself with top adversarial nations of the West like Russia and North Korea, attempted to claim it has not chosen a side when it comes to Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine, despite it having provided Moscow with drones and, most recently, short-range ballistic missiles for its war effort.

‘We seek lasting peace and security for the people of Ukraine and Russia. The Islamic Republic of Iran opposes war and emphasizes the urgent need to end military hostilities in Ukraine. We support all peaceful solutions, and believe that dialog is the only way to resolve this crisis,’ the Iranian president said. 

‘We need a new paradigm to address global challenges. Such a paradigm must focus on opportunities, rather than being obsessed with perceived threats,’ he added. 

Pezeshkian called on ‘neighboring and brotherly countries’ to unite with Iran to advance what is best for the Middle East.

But the Iranian president also spoke directly to the U.S. and said Tehran is looking to ‘transcend’ the obstacles of the past and move forward with Washington, despite its withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement under President Trump and the subsequent sanctions and trade restrictions that have, in large part, cut it off from the rest of the world. 

‘My message to all states pursuing a counterproductive strategy towards Iran is to learn from history,’ Pezeshkian said before calling the U.S.’s sanctions a ‘crime against humanity.’

‘We have the opportunity to transcend these limitations and enter into a new era,’ he added.

But Pezeshkian’s comments rang hollow for some and, according to Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran expert and senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, they were riddled with ‘propaganda.’

‘Short but certainly not sweet,’ he told Fox News Digital. ‘Pezeshkian dangled the prospect of a renewed diplomatic agreement, something which his regime will use as a literal shield against pressure on its expanding nuclear program and accountably against supporting a multi-front war against Israel.’

‘By blaming former President Trump in his speech and by bringing along technocratic staff involved in the JCPOA back in 201[8], Pezeshkian hopes to win support with certain crowds in Washington and Europe and run the clock against SnapBack, which expires in 2025,’ Ben Taleblu added. But despite Pezeshkian’s honeyed comments on renewing diplomatic conversations with the U.S., they are not expected to curry much favor with either side of the political aisle as it continues to ramp up its development of nuclear weapons.

Biden Cabinet members praised the president for his ‘exceptionally effective’ leadership and believe he is still fit for office after he handed over the reins of a Cabinet meeting to his wife, Jill Biden, just days ago.

Among the 10 Cabinet officials who sent Fox News Digital statements, there was a general agreement of confidence in Biden’s leadership and his ability to continue serving out his term as president.

‘President Biden continues to be an exceptionally effective president, and his focus on delivering results—like record job creation, major infrastructure development, and increased domestic manufacturing—is something he demonstrates every time we interact,’ Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg told Fox News Digital. 

Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, went a step further and called Biden ‘one of the most accomplished presidents in American history and continues to effectively lead our country with a steady hand.’

‘As someone who is actually in the room when the President meets with the cabinet and foreign leaders, I can tell you he is an incisive and extraordinary leader,’ Raimondo said.

Secretary of Health and Human Services, Xavier Becerra – one of Biden’s staunch defenders – said Biden ‘has done more as president for this country than any other president whom I have worked with since 1992.’

‘So yes, not only can he do the job, but he has been doing it,’ he said in a statement to Fox News Digital. ‘And we are fortunate to have someone who continues to use all of his experience to take us further. If you recall where we were four years ago, the depth of a pandemic, Americans losing their jobs, Americans losing their health care. Today, more Americans are employed than ever before. Today, more Americans have health coverage than ever before. No President in the history of this country has ever placed 700 million vaccines in the arms of Americans to keep them alive and keep them healthy. The result? Our economy is healthy.’

‘Is he fit? He’s proving it,’ Becerra added. 

Biden’s apparent declining mental acuity first made headlines during the summer before his poor debate performance against former President Trump. Less than a month after the June debate, Biden faced pressure from his Democratic base to drop out of the race and allow VP Kamala Harris to run as the party’s candidate. 

‘Throughout President Biden’s term, Americans have benefited from his leadership and experience. He led a productive Cabinet meeting on Friday and clearly laid out his expectations for the months ahead,’ Acting secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development Adrianne Todman told Fox News Digital.

‘President Biden charged us with not only continuing to get the historic levels of funding he secured out the door, but ensuring that those funds are being put to work to help the American people. I look forward to continuing to work with the President, and the entire Administration, to expand affordable housing for all,’ she said. 

Biden convened his Cabinet on Friday for the first time since Oct. 2, 2023 – this time with the first lady joining him to speak about the White House Initiative on Women’s Health Research. 

The president explained Jill Biden’s presence there, saying, ‘Here and across previous administrations, first ladies have attended these meetings for specific reasons. This is the first time Jill has joined us, and it goes to show how important the issue is, which she is about to speak to.’ 

The New York Post reported that Jill Biden, seated at the head of the Cabinet Room’s board table, ‘read from a binder about maternal health initiatives for four-and-a-half minutes after her husband spoke for just two minutes off the top of the meeting.’ 

The president traditionally sits at the center of the table with Cabinet members seated in order of the founding of their departments. The last sitting first lady to attend her husband’s Cabinet meeting appears to be Hillary Clinton.

The amount of influence the first lady has over Joe Biden, and therefore his administration, has been a frequent source of controversy, and numerous commentators took to social media to criticize her presence at the meeting.

The New York Post said that Jill Biden is ‘considered by insiders to be the most influential first lady since Edith Wilson, who tightly controlled access to her husband, President Woodrow Wilson, after he suffered a debilitating stroke in October 1919.’ 

Fox News Digital’s Alexander Hall and Greg Norman contributed to this report.