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As concerns over election integrity remain a contentious issue ahead of the 2024 presidential election, a new national poll shows that most Americans support having photo identification as a requirement to vote in elections.

A Gallup Poll released Thursday shows that 84% of respondents favor requiring a photo ID, while 83% support providing proof of citizenship when registering to vote for the first time. The poll noted that voter attitudes toward these issues were similar to those seen in its July 2022 poll.

Thirty-six states currently request or require voters to show IDs when they go to the polls.

In July, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which aims to ensure only American citizens vote in federal elections, with the support of only five Democrats.

While the bill made it through the House floor, it faces strong opposition from Democrats in the Senate, which has yet to vote on the legislation. President Biden has also said he would veto the bill.

Among the states that don’t require voters to present ID is California, where Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in September signed legislation banning local governments from requiring voters to present an ID at the ballot box.

The Gallup poll comes as millions of early in-person and mail-in ballots have begun pouring in across the country.

As of Thursday afternoon, more than 25 million ballots have been cast nationwide.

Fox News’ Morgan Phillips contributed to this report.

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Former President Donald Trump’s campaign charged Vice President Kamala Harris with pushing ‘dangerous’ rhetoric that it said is ‘directly to blame’ for fostering the kind of political climate that led to two assassination attempts on the former president’s life.

‘She continues to stoke the flames of violence all in the name of politics,’ Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said, after Harris compared Trump to Adolf Hitler from the steps of her home yesterday at the U.S. Naval Observatory.

Trump was not the only critic of Harris’ rhetoric. Former third-party candidate-turned-Trump surrogate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., argued that the remarks comparing Trump to Hitler ‘inspires assassins.’

‘This type of rhetoric is dangerous to the life of Donald Trump and our Democracy as we know it,’ the Mississippi Republican Party said. Meanwhile, Jacob Helberg, an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that as a person of Jewish descent with ancestors who endured the Holocaust, he thought it was a ‘disgrace’ for Harris to compare Trump to Hitler.

‘These dangerous rants by Kamala Harris, comparing President Trump to Hitler and calling him a fascist, are inciting more hate and vitriol, and ultimately leading to political violence against President Trump,’ said Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La. Scalise. Scalise is the second-highest ranking Republican in the House and also survived an assassination attempt during a congressional baseball game in 2017. 

‘It has to stop. This is extremely reckless and dangerous, and we have seen its consequences time and time again. How many more assassination attempts will it take before Democrat leaders tone down their rhetoric?’

Colin Reed, a Republican strategist and former campaign manager for former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, said it was ‘ironic’ that Harris’ closing pitch heading into the election compares the former president to Hitler, following ‘all the summer rhetoric about needing to lower the temperature and cool the discourse has fallen away.’    

‘So much for the campaign of joy and vibes,’ Reed said.

Harris’ decision to invoke Hitler while talking about Trump follows a report from The Atlantic that chronicled comments from Trump’s former chief of staff, John Kelly, who recounted a moment working under the former president when he lauded Hitler for doing ‘some good things.’ Kelly also reportedly said that working with Trump showed him that the former president met the definition of a ‘fascist,’ which both the White House and Harris subsequently said they agreed with. 

Meanwhile, Harris’ remarks come after her critics already warned the Democratic presidential candidate that her party’s rhetoric was contributing to the environment that has led to two assassination attempts on Trump’s life. 

‘The recklessness of the hateful rhetoric constantly aimed at Trump by his political opponents, even after he was shot at a rally in Pennsylvania in July,’ said New York Post columnist Miranda Devine.

‘No one has tried to kill Kamala Harris in the last couple of months, and two people have tried to kill Donald Trump. I say that’s strong evidence that the left needs to tone down the rhetoric and cut this crap out, somebody is going to get hurt,’ said Trump’s vice presidential running mate, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio.

The calls for the left to tone down the rhetoric mirror calls for Republicans to do the same following the 2012 shooting of former Arizona Rep. Gabby Giffords. Giffords was targeted at an event for constituents by a deranged gunman and shot in the head. The gunman murdered six people and injured 12 others – including one of Giffords’ staffers.

South Carolina’s Rep. James Clyburn, the former number two ranking Democrat in the House, said following the shooting of Giffords, ‘We’re living in a time that all of us should begin to take stock of how our words affect people, especially those who aren’t very stable.’

Some Democrats pointed their finger at Sarah Palin, the former Republican governor of Alaska and onetime vice-presidential candidate, citing an online ‘target map’ which featured stylized crosshairs over vulnerable electoral districts, including that of Giffords and others in the Democratic Party.

‘We need to put the guns down. Just as importantly, we need to put the gun metaphors away and permanently,’ MSNBC anchor Keith Olbermann penned in a 2011 op-ed.

The University of Michigan conducted research following the Giffords shooting on how charged political messaging can inflame violent attitudes, particularly among those predisposed to be aggressive in daily life. ‘The results presented here clearly refute the claim that violent political rhetoric is without negative consequences,’ a Michigan political science researcher said at the time.

‘Last year, some Republican politicians used Second Amendment references (remember Sharron Angle and ‘Second Amendment remedies’ if Harry Reid didn’t lose) and revolutionary talk to express how angry they were about the state of their country. They strongly and vehemently rejected the charge, from Democrats, that they were encouraging an atmosphere of violence,’ political journalist David Weigel recounted for the left-leaning Slate Magazine after the Giffords shooting. ‘When Giffords’ opponent held a fundraiser and pitched it as ‘help remove Gabrielle Giffords from office, shoot a fully automatic M-16 with Jesse Kelly,’ Democrats saw the specter of violence, and Republicans saw political posturing.’

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Vice President Kamala Harris stood outside the vice president’s residence in Washington, D.C., launching a blistering attack on former President Trump, her rival in the 2024 White House race.

Harris charged that the former president was ‘increasingly unhinged and unstable’ as she pointed to critical comments made by retired Gen. John Kelly, Trump’s former White House Chief of Staff, in a New York Times interview.

The vice president argued Trump was a ‘fascist’ as she noted Kelly’s allegations that the then-president repeatedly voiced admiration for Nazi Germany dictator Adolf Hitler.

Hours later, at a CNN town hall in battleground Pennsylvania on Wednesday night, Harris doubled down on her charges.

Asked if she believed the Republican presidential nominee was a fascist, the vice president answered ‘yes, I do.’

And she emphasized that American voters ‘care about our democracy and not having a President of the United States who admires dictators and is a fascist.’

Trump, who has vehemently denied Kelly’s allegations, took to social media to fire back at Harris, arguing that her criticisms were a sign that she’s losing the election.

The former president claimed that Harris was ‘increasingly raising her rhetoric, going so far as to call me Adolf Hitler, and anything else that comes to her warped mind.’

If Harris’ criticisms that Trump is ‘unfit to serve’ in the Oval Office sound familiar, there’s a good reason – they are.

As he ran for re-election, President Biden made his argument that Trump was an existential threat to democracy a centerpiece of his presidential campaign.

Biden spotlighted what he called the former president’s ‘assault on democracy’ – as he pointed to the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters aiming to upend congressional certification of Biden’s 2020 election victory – during a January speech as he kicked off the election year.

As he continued to run for another four years in the White House, the president repeatedly argued that Trump was ‘a threat to democracy.’

But after a besieged Biden in July dropped his re-election bid and backed Harris to replace him atop the Democrats’ 2024 ticket, the vice president and her advisers seemed to discard the Biden playbook on Trump.

Instead, ‘joyful warrior’ Harris spotlighted a more upbeat message and when she focused on Trump, she noted his petty grievances and called him an ‘unserious man,’ as she argued during her Democratic National Convention address in late August.

But as the calendar moved from summer to autumn, and Election Day neared, in a margin-of-error race where plenty of polls suggest the momentum belongs to Trump, there’s been an apparent shift of tone coming from the vice president and her campaign.

‘Donald Trump is increasingly unstable and unhinged and will stop at nothing to claim unchecked power for himself,’ Harris charged last week during multiple campaign rallies in battleground Wisconsin.

According to a senior campaign official, Harris will deliver what’s being described as a major ‘closing argument’ address next Tuesday – one week until Election Day – on the Ellipse, which is just south of the White House and north of the National Mall.

The campaign spotlighted that Trump headlined a large rally of supporters at the Ellipse on Jan 6, 2021. Many of those who attended Trump’s rally then marched to the U.S. Capital and joined other protesters in storming the building. The campaign sees the Ellipse as a symbolic location that they believe will help make clear to voters the choice in the presidential election.

The contrast with the former president that Harris is working to sketch comes as she and her campaign make a full court press to attract dissatisfied Republicans who supported Trump rival Nikki Haley earlier this year in the GOP presidential primaries. 

While Trump continues to hold massive sway over the Republican Party, even a sliver of GOP voters casting ballots for Harris could make a difference in some of the battleground states in a race likely to be decided in the margins.

Harris in recent weeks has teamed up in the key battleground states with high-profile anti-Trump Republicans, including former Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming.

A Democratic strategist in Biden’s political orbit told Fox News that the shift in Harris’ messaging is a sign that the president was right to repeatedly take aim at Trump on the campaign trail as an existential threat to democracy.

The Trump campaign argues that the new messaging will backfire with voters.

‘Kamala Harris is focused on Donald Trump and President Donald J. Trump is focused on the American people,’ Trump campaign senior adviser Danielle Alvarez argued on ‘Fox and Friends’ on Thursday. ‘Our closing argument is so different than theirs. They are throwing everything they can at the wall to see what sticks because Kamala Harris is floundering.’

Longtime vocal GOP Trump-critic Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire – who was a top Haley supporter and surrogate in the Republican nomination battle but says he’ll vote for Trump – said that the attacks wouldn’t succeed in courting voters.

‘You’re dealing with an individual who makes outrageous statements all the time,’ Sununu said of Trump during an interview on Fox News’ ‘Your World with Neil Cavuto.’ ‘They’re baked into the noise.’

Sununu argued that ‘the reason the Harris campaign has completely frozen, lost all their momentum, is because all they do is talk about crazy things that Trump says and does.’

Longtime Republican strategist Colin Reed, a veteran of multiple presidential campaigns, agreed.

‘Voters have been hearing versions of this overheated rhetoric for the better part of the last decade, and they’re starting to tune it out as background noise,’ he told Fox News Digital.

Reed also noted that the new criticism comes after Trump survived two assassination attempts against his life this summer, and many of the former president’s allies blame rhetoric from some Democrats for fueling the toxic political climate.

‘It’s especially ironic coming from the Biden-Harris Administration that ran on an idea of unity, and are now demonizing someone who has been subject to multiple attempts on his life,’ noted Reed, who supported vocal Trump critic former Gov. Chris Christie this cycle.

But Reed said ‘the bigger challenge is that life was easier under the previous presidency than the current one. Prices were lower, the border more secure and ‘inflation’ was an esoteric term from an economics class and not a headache of everyday life. The Harris campaign has failed to lay out their vision and positive plans to address these issues, leaving them with no choice but to focus solely on the negatives around Trump and hope for the best.’

He called it ‘a risky bet when voters are looking for concrete solutions to real problems.’

Even some Democrats have issues with the new messaging.

‘I worry that the threat to democracy message rings hollow with the majority of voters who are much more focused on improving their own personal situation and want to vote for someone who will make their life more affordable,’ seasoned Democratic strategist and communicator Chris Moyer told Fox News Digital.

Moyer said that ‘if I were the Harris campaign, I would continue to hammer home through Election Day the message of what Harris will do for these voters to lower costs and help them get ahead. In doing so, she will be speaking to the top priority across multiple subsets of the electorate. Voters who have the luxury of worrying about the broad concern of the fate of democracy are most likely already voting for Harris.’

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The U.S. National Security Council released on Thursday its first-ever memo on artificial intelligence (AI), ordering federal agencies to use the ‘most powerful’ AI systems while balancing the risks associated with the new technology.

The National Security Memorandum (NSM) details the U.S. approach to harnessing the power of AI for national security and foreign policy purposes ‘to ensure that America leads the way in seizing the promise and managing the risks of AI,’ senior administration officials said.

‘We are directing that the agencies gain access to the most powerful AI systems and put them to use, which often involve substantial efforts on procurement,’ the officials said.

The NSM, which was signed by President Biden, serves as the framework for the AI Safety Institute in the Department of Commerce, which already issued guidance on safe AI development and entered into agreements with companies to test new AI systems before they are released publicly.

‘This is our nation’s first-ever strategy for harnessing the power and managing the risks of AI to advance our national security,’ national security adviser Jake Sullivan said as he described the new policy to students during an appearance at the National Defense University in Washington.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence have been hailed as potentially transformative for a long list of industries and sectors, including military, national security and intelligence.

But there are risks to the technology’s use by governments, including possibilities it could be harnessed for mass surveillance, cyberattacks or even lethal autonomous devices.

The framework announced Thursday also prohibits national security agencies from certain uses, such as applications that would violate constitutionally protected civil rights or any system that would automate the deployment of nuclear weapons.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Secretary of State Antony Blinken is warning Israel on Thursday not to lead a ‘protracted campaign’ against the terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

Blinken, who is visiting Qatar for talks to end the war in Gaza, said, ‘as Israel conducts operations to remove the threat to Israel and its people along the border, with Lebanon, we have been very clear that this cannot lead, should not lead to a protracted campaign and that Israel must take the necessary steps to avoid civilian casualties and not endanger U.N. peacekeepers or the Lebanese Armed Forces. 

‘Right now, we’re working intensely to reach a diplomatic resolution . . . [that] allows civilians on both sides of the border to return to their homes and to be able to live there in peace and security,’ Blinken added. ‘We’re also committed to building up and supporting Lebanese efforts to build up their own institutions free from the grip of Hezbollah, so that the people of Lebanon have more security, more opportunity, more prosperity.’ 

Blinken’s comments come nearly a month after the Israeli military began its limited ground operation inside Lebanon. The Israel Defense Forces revealed Thursday that it has found another hideout where Hezbollah’s special forces unit was allegedly planning an Oct. 7-style attack on Israel. 

The IDF says its troops discovered ‘bunk beds, storage cabinets, food supplies, infrastructure for long-term stay, a large amount of equipment, weapons and launch positions’ in the underground facility. 

‘During these limited and localized ground operations in southern Lebanon, our troops also located 4 weapons storage facilities with rockets, mortars, RPGs and more,’ it added. 

The U.S. State Department said Thursday that Blinken ‘met with Qatari Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani today in Doha,’ where they ‘discussed renewed efforts to secure the release of the hostages and end the war in Gaza, as well as ongoing work to provide for security, governance, and reconstruction in Gaza after the war.’ 

The visit comes after Blinken was in Israel earlier this week, just days after Hezbollah launched a drone strike to assassinate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his private residence in Caesarea. 

Fox News’ Benjamin Weinthal contributed to this report. 

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Energy industry leaders are pushing for Vice President Kamala Harris to clarify her stance on fossil fuel production in the final days of the presidential race, citing fears that she would restrict production and add on to four years of confusing policy under President Biden.

These concerns reached a fever pitch last week after senior campaign climate adviser Camila Thorndike said in an interview that Harris has no plans to promote fracking in office. The remarks, since walked back, sparked backlash and criticism from Republicans and industry groups, who re-upped their calls for clarity from the vice president. 

Many viewed the now-retracted comment as a sign she would crack down on fracking. This could cost Harris big time in Pennsylvania – the second-largest U.S. natural gas producer behind Texas, and a key swing state with 19 electoral votes out for offer in the presidential race.

Harris did little to assuage voters in her town hall event Wednesday night. She denied that she had previously endorsed a fracking ban while seeking the presidency in 2019 – when she said there was ‘no question’ she is in favor of banning fracking – and instead pointed to her recent endorsement of the practice. 

She has also repeatedly noted her tie-breaking vote for the Inflation Reduction Act, or the Democratic-led legislation that opened new lease sales for fracking.

However, even in the Keystone State, gas groups remain skeptical as industry leaders note that with just days left before the election, Harris has done little to spell out how she would lead on oil and gas issues, especially when it comes to issues of fracking – a necessary technology to extract natural gas in Pennsylvania. 

Instead, one statewide industry group said, her remarks have only inspired ‘more fracking confusion.’ 

Harris ‘was against it before she was for it. Or is it the other way around now?’ a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance quipped of Harris’s fracking flip-flops in a blog post Wednesday.

Harris ‘continues to give mixed messages about her position on fracking – an issue central to voters in battleground states like Pennsylvania,’ a spokesperson for Grow America’s Infrastructure Now Coalition told Fox News in a statement. 

While Harris has said she would ‘not ban fracking,’ the group said, ‘there is a distinct difference between not banning fracking, and promoting energy production.’

‘As the Harris campaign travels through Pennsylvania … it remains to be seen whether she will clarify her position,’ they added.

Winning Pennsylvania may require an embrace of fossil fuel production. The state is the second-largest natural gas producer in the U.S. and boasts a gas industry that supports more than 120,000 state jobs and adds roughly $41 billion annually to the state’s economy.

‘It’s obvious that the pathway to the presidency goes through Pennsylvania,’ Amanda Eversole, the chief operating officer of the American Petroleum Institute, told Fox News earlier this month. 

Bigger picture

Harris, to date, has ignored calls to clarify her exact policy positions on energy production, which was a heated topic during the Biden administration. 

Her recent stump speeches in Pennsylvania have leaned heavily on the historic levels of U.S. oil and gas production reached under President Biden – despite the fact that this production was in large part a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

‘I am proud that as vice president over the last four years, we have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels,’ Harris said in recent campaign remarks.

The U.S. Oil and Gas Association described Harris’s view on social media as the latest ‘change in her prior, prior, position.’ 

Republicans also used it to seize on their wins in Pennsylvania, where Democrats have struggled to gain momentum in recent weeks– including both Harris and down-ballot candidates, such as Sen. Bill Casey.

When asked for a comment Wednesday, a spokesperson for former President Donald Trump’s campaign seized on Thorndike’s recent remarks, telling Fox News in a statement that they only ‘cement the reality’ that ‘the only candidate in this race who will unleash Pennsylvania energy to cut utility bills and fuel American growth is [Trump].’

Former U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry also criticized the interview and the confusion swirling around Harris’s policy positions so close to Election Day.

‘With the election less than 2 weeks out, the recent comments from Harris’ climate director are concerning,’ Perry told Fox News in a statement.

‘Calling the oil and gas industry ‘ecoterrorists’ is insulting to the millions of energy workers across the country, and the Vice President should disavow these extreme comments,’ he said. ‘Voters from PA, OH, and WI should believe Vice President Harris the first time she vowed to ban fracking.’

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If North Korean troops invade Ukraine, America must ‘seriously consider’ engaging in military action against them, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence chair Rep. Mike Turner said in a statement issued Wednesday.

‘If North Korean troops were to invade Ukraine’s sovereign territory, the United States needs to seriously consider taking direct military action against the North Korean troops,’ the Ohio Republican asserted.

Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin has said that there is evidence North Korean troops are present in Russia.

‘We assess that between early to mid-October, North Korea moved at least 3,000 soldiers into eastern Russia. We assess that these soldiers traveled by ship from the Wonsan area in North Korea to Vladivostok, Russia,’ White House national security communications adviser John Kirby said.

‘These soldiers then traveled onward to multiple Russian military training sites in eastern Russia, where they are currently undergoing training,’ he continued. 

Kirby said that the U.S. does not know whether the North Korean troops will fight alongside Russian forces, but described the prospect as ‘a highly concerning probability.’

The U.S. has provided Ukraine with billions of dollars worth of assistance as the Eastern European nation has been fighting a war against Russia.

Turner suggested that if North Korean forces target Ukraine from within Russian territory, America should allow Ukraine to utilize U.S. weapons to retaliate.

‘I have long challenged the Biden-Harris Administration’s unwise position on restricting Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons against targets within Russian territory. If North Korean troops attack Ukraine from Russian territory, Ukraine should be permitted to use American weapons to respond,’ the lawmaker declared.

Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley of Illinois declared in a tweet, ‘For those who think the war in Ukraine is unimportant, consider who Putin is partnering with. The presence of North Korean troops in Russia clearly indicates that Putin is not interested in ending this conflict—he is determined to escalate it at any cost.’

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A new poll shows that former President Trump has historically strong support from young minority voters with less than two weeks before Election Day.

The latest GenForward poll from the University of Chicago, released Wednesday, found that 26 percent of Black men between the ages of 18 and 40 said they would vote for Trump, while only 12 percent of Black women said the same. It is a significant gain since Black voters overall supported Biden over Trump by a nine to one ratio in the 2020 presidential election. 

Trump also has improved with young Latino men, 44 percent of whom said they’d support him compared to about 38 percent who voted for him in 2020. Even so, Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris leads Trump overall 47-35 in the poll, which includes large oversamples of young voters of color. 

Still, the underlying results provide further evidence of a potential political realignment among minority voters on generational and gender lines. Young Black and Latino Americans have typically supported Democratic candidates – but several surveys have shown weakened support for Harris among these groups, who say economic issues and immigration are the top concerns for their communities. 

Where Harris is strong is among women of color. A majority of Black (63%), Asian American and Pacific Islander (60%) and Latina (55%) women say they support Harris over Trump.

White women showed a slight preference for Harris over Trump, 44-40 percent.

The GenForward poll ran from Sept. 26 to Oct. 6 and included 2,359 eligible voters 18 to 40 years old. It has a plus or minus 3.13 percentage point margin of error. 

Both Harris and Trump have focused on outreach to minority voters in the closing days of the 2024 presidential election.

The Harris campaign unveiled an economic agenda for Black men last week, emphasizing her plans to provide small business loans to Black-owned businesses and legalize marijuana. 

Her campaign also ramped up events targeting Latino and Black voters in battleground states, and former President Barack Obama chastised Black men, claiming they could be hesitant to vote for a woman as president. 

Trump has highlighted recent endorsements from Black celebrities and athletes at his rallies, including Detroit rapper Trick Trick, boxing legend Tommy ‘Hitman’ Hearns and former NFL players Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.  

Fox News Digital’s Danielle Wallace and Brooke Singman contributed to this report.

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Former President Trump is in a neck-and-neck race with Vice President Kamala Harris in three critical swing states, according to new polling.

The Thursday Marist polls found Trump and Harris virtually tied in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, while Harris holds a 5-point lead in national polling.

Trump leads Harris by one point in Arizona with a 50%-49% match-up. Meanwhile in North Carolina, Trump holds another slim 50%-48% lead. Both candidates are tied at 49% in Georgia, according to the poll.

The Marist polls were conducted from Oct. 17-22, surveying over 1,400 residents from each of the states. The margin of error for North Carolina was 3.2%, while it was 3.7% in Arizona and 3.9% in Georgia.

The poll lines up with other surveys in the final stretch before Election Day. The Wall Street Journal released a poll on Wednesday showing Trump and Harris in a dead heat nationally, giving Trump a slight 47%-45% lead.

The polls widely indicate that the honeymoon period has passed for Harris, though she remains much more popular than President Biden when he led the Democratic ticket.

The latest Fox News poll results, with Trump with 50% support and Harris at 48%, were a reversal from last month, when the vice president had the edge.

‘Overall, the movement toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, especially if he is making gains among college-educated voters,’ said veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. ‘However, the race has been well within the margin of error for three months and the outcome will likely hinge on which side is more effective at getting their voters to the polls as opposed to persuasion.’

While national polls are helpful, the race for the White House is not based on the national popular vote. The winner on Election Day will be determined by their performance in the swing states.

Harris has the clear advantage on the financial front as she and Trump enter the home stretch. The Harris campaign hauled in $221.8 million in September, according to filings, more than triple the $63 million brought in by the Trump campaign last month.

Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report

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With America barreling toward Election Day on Nov. 5, the path to 270 electoral votes for former President Trump is looking more promising with each passing day.  

Make no mistake about it, while the unprecedented presidential campaign of 2024 remains a razor-thin affair, there are several indicators showing that Trump is running stronger than he did in both 2016 and 2020.  

Perhaps the most crucial factor is what voters think about the direction of the country under the failed leadership of President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris over the past four years. According to polling averages, the right track-wrong track numbers are underwater by a stunning 37%,with Biden and Harris at the helm.  

Some polls have the wrong direction number coming in as high as 79% while others found that only 18% believe we are on the right track.  In the face of massive inflation, open borders and crime around the country, many people are wondering what these 18% are thinking.

Among key demographic groups, there’s even more reason for optimism for Trump. In 2016 when he was elected president, Trump received 8% of the African American vote. Now, polls show him with the support of a much-improved 29% of Black voters. 

Recent reporting from the Wall Street Journal has indicated that losing Black men at the ballot box is of primary concern for Democrats: ‘Polling has shown Trump receiving a higher percentage of support among Black voters, particularly among men, than in past campaigns, raising the possibility he could disrupt Democrats’ voting coalition.’

Similarly, with Hispanic voters, Trump received 28% of the vote in 2016, and today polls show Trump jumping to 47% support among Latinos. When even the New York Times is writing things like ‘Vice President Kamala Harris’s support among Hispanic voters is in dangerously low territory for Democrats’ and ‘Almost any way we can measure it, Mr. Trump is running as well or better among Black and Hispanic voters as any Republican in recent memory,’ it’s obviously cause for great concern on the left.  

The reason for the gravitation toward Trump’s candidacy is likely a simple one: families were more prosperous, our streets were safer and our border was secure when he was in office. Trump’s commonsense policies achieved positive results regardless of one’s socioeconomic status or background. 

And notwithstanding the misinformation du jour you hear from Harris and her allies in the liberal mainstream media, the 2024 presidential election is a referendum on the disastrous policies of the incumbent – in this case the sitting vice president – who has been in power for almost four years.  

The radical Biden-Harris agenda caused the cost of living to spiral out of control for millions of American families now struggling to make ends meet. Reckless open border policies – and the conscious decision to reverse Trump’s successful border security measures – have caused an unnecessary catastrophe that we’ll be dealing with for decades. And weakness on the world stage has emboldened our enemies around the globe.

The crystal-clear contrast on display in this campaign is unmistakable. Bold colors not pale pastels, as President Ronald Reagan used to say. Under President Trump, we had essentially no inflation, our border was secure and the world was at peace.  

Leadership matters and elections do indeed have consequences. Americans are not better off today than they were four years ago when Trump left office.

And perhaps therein lies the reason that Trump is faring better in the polls now than he was at the same time of the races in both 2016 and 2020.

As of this writing, Trump is leading Harris – albeit narrowly – in the seven most critical battleground states. The state of the race, according to public polling data, was far different in previous campaigns. 

At this time in 2016, Hillary Clinton was leading in North Carolina by 3.3 percentage points, but Trump ended up carrying the state. In 2020, Biden was leading in North Carolina as well, but Trump ended up winning the Tar Heel State again. 

Fast-forward to 2024 and now polls show Trump with a small lead in this critically important state. So, if the Trumpian trademark of outperforming survey data continues, the former president is well-positioned to once again carry North Carolina’s coveted 16 electoral votes.

In Pennsylvania and the fight for its all-important 19 electoral votes, an average of polls shows Trump in the lead. But in 2016 and 2020 at this time, Clinton and Biden were ahead of Trump by 6.7 and 4.4 percentage points, respectively.  As it turned out, Trump carried the Keystone State in 2016 and did much better in 2020 than the polls were predicting.

Similar trends are happening in other swing states. Look no further than Arizona, where in 2016 polls showed Trump winning the state by 0.7 points at this time of the race, but he ended up carrying the state by 3.5 percentage points. In 2020, polls placed Biden in the lead by 3.9 points, but he took the Grand Canyon state by just 0.3 points.  

Contrast the Biden-Trump numbers with what’s happening this time around, where the average of polls has Trump leading the battle for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in the lead-up to the race, just like in 2016 when he won the state. 

  

When analyzing polling data from the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential races, perhaps the most stunning numbers come out of Midwestern heavyweight Wisconsin.

In 2016, it appeared that Hillary Clinton was in the driver’s seat in the Badger State with a 6.4-point lead at this point in the race, but Trump won the state. And in 2020, the polling average had Biden out in front by six points too, but he only managed to hang on by a 0.6 percent margin.  

Of course, Biden’s bloated lead in the state leading up to the election was buoyed by a Washington Post-ABC poll taken in late October that showed Biden ahead by 17 points. Many believe that irresponsible polls like this amount to election interference because they may end up suppressing the vote for the candidate who they say is trailing.

And in Wisconsin in 2020, where the margin came down to just 20,000 votes, who knows what could have happened if voters had more accurate polling to consider before going – or not going – to the polls. Currently in Wisconsin, the polls show the race a dead heat, which is good news for Trump if history is any indication.     

As Americans cast their ballots across the country, there’s ample reason to believe that the wind is at Donald Trump’s back. And if this turns out to be a ‘change’ election in the tradition of 1980, voters may very well break dramatically to ‘Trump the challenger’ at the very end.  

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